tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87141638711125825562024-02-06T20:21:18.377-08:00E-book commentswannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.comBlogger92125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-90082081753682938032012-08-25T21:38:00.001-07:002012-08-25T21:38:13.490-07:00I haven't posted for a bit as the AAP ebook sales are convoluted, at best.<br />
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I also speculate we have an Indie author breakout happening in 2012. Not any one author, but a large number of indie authors finding their audience <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;"><</span><em style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">a href</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">="</span>
<a href="http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/08/author-joseph-lallo-on-keys-to-his.html">http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/08/author-joseph-lallo-on-keys-to-his.html</a> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">">such as this smashwords expample.</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;"></a></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmschdo2vzZhRLKQMGHuIIVkfaDrVMmbQvdz7TCStxUP2Pqd7PU9WA1xOBVwo3Rgpmk_3P3VYhEPSIjdzpUR4CT1J8UsuJz3FOxFAtr_Tf_FRmDNssbzxglh7V_Z9nsbaniqQ481RYuH0/s1600/april-2012+ebook+sales.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmschdo2vzZhRLKQMGHuIIVkfaDrVMmbQvdz7TCStxUP2Pqd7PU9WA1xOBVwo3Rgpmk_3P3VYhEPSIjdzpUR4CT1J8UsuJz3FOxFAtr_Tf_FRmDNssbzxglh7V_Z9nsbaniqQ481RYuH0/s320/april-2012+ebook+sales.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">The overall all trend is growth again in ebook sales, but not as strong for the AAP authors as 2011. The first question is has growth really slowed that much (to just over 1/3rd growth for March 2012 vs. March 2011)? I doubt it. What is on your Kindle/Nook/Android/iGadget? </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;"><</span><em style="background-color: white; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: bold; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">a href</em><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">="</span>
<a href="http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/07/multiple-smashwords-authors-hit-new.html">http://blog.smashwords.com/2012/07/multiple-smashwords-authors-hit-new.html</a> <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">">Smashwords also brags</span><wbr style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;"></wbr><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;"></a> about their authors finally hitting the NYTimes best seller list. </span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small; line-height: 17.77777862548828px;">It is too early for ebook sales growth to slow this quickly. That would imply ebooks only make it to about half of the book market. Instead, I believe we have new authors finding new audiences. Heck, about half of my reading (perhaps 1/3rd of my spending) in 2012 has been on new indie authors.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 17.766666412353516px;">I remain excited about ebooks. However, they are going from technology to appliance. In other words, while a new item in the household, we take them for granted rather than gawking at the wonder.</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 17.766666412353516px;">Got Popcorn?<br />Neil</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="line-height: 17.766666412353516px;">Someone get the AAP to publish their other numbers clearer. Its pretty obvious items are in decline. I do wish Amazon had to publish numbers... that would be interesting!</span></span>wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-36612073421363218732012-05-04T09:28:00.002-07:002012-05-04T09:28:16.605-07:00Where is the AAP book sales data?If I take the bits and pieces of AAP book sales data out there, I calculate -$178.57 million in sales for adult books. Yes, a negative number. <br />
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<a href="http://lunch.publishersmarketplace.com/2012/05/trade-sales-up-22-in-february-while-ebook-sales-flatten-out/">http://lunch.publishersmarketplace.com/2012/05/trade-sales-up-22-in-february-while-ebook-sales-flatten-out</a> (note, I do not have a paid, any links to further numbers appreciated)<br />
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Midiabistro has a children's sale tidbit
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<a href="http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/children%E2%80%99s-ya-hardcover-sales-up-72_b51129">http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/children%E2%80%99s-ya-hardcover-sales-up-72_b51129</a><br /><br />The numbers have never been more convoluted than before. One doesn't hide great numbers. I'm sad print is dropping. I'd really like to know more on how mass market paperback is doing; for I fear it might disappear earlier than my mid-2014 prediction. :( <br />
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Got Popcorn?<br />Neil<br />
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<br />wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-43732581181155083972012-04-23T15:32:00.000-07:002012-04-23T15:32:59.920-07:00More plots Jan 2012 Ebook salesWhile waiting for the AAP February book sales data, I thought I would show two more graphs that show just how strongly ebooks are doing. The two graphs have the same data, but by visually plotting them differently, it emphasizes two different aspects of the data.<br />
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Graph #1 is a bar graph that shows by within Month ebook growth. The ramp up in January ebook sales is impressive. We saw more impressive year over year growth in a month later in 2011... So I wonder how impressive February will be?<br />
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February, May, July, August, October, and December are the strongest months for 2011 ebook sales. We could see February sales 25% to 30% higher than January ebook sales! But also note there is some variability that I speculate that is 'weather induced.' So let's not get stuck up on individual month comparisons. <br />
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The January spike is despite $14.99+ ebook prices attempting to favor hardcover sales. Imagine the potential for ebook growth if publishers weren't throwing the format under the bus. <br />
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The second graph plots each year by color. The main point of this graph is to show the steady growth in ebook sales over the years. The market is not yet a mature market. There is no ambiguity about each year being at a level above the prior year. Not since 2009. At some point the market will mature and we'll see a month have the same sales or lower than a prior year. At that point authors will have to look for growth in the UK, Germany, Spain, India, etc. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiEUthqey1zSHzhzjOYq4fSGt7T2hrpvGJpwesrGkjU1IpLddF1UUbHL6CDo4CHU35yzL_hXqOaoMDmS4aPawvdBaa9GlE4NafBggpc28KA-NK52A04qEIPjyEogLOqFuH2L4uMlFZM6Q/s1600/jan-bar.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiEUthqey1zSHzhzjOYq4fSGt7T2hrpvGJpwesrGkjU1IpLddF1UUbHL6CDo4CHU35yzL_hXqOaoMDmS4aPawvdBaa9GlE4NafBggpc28KA-NK52A04qEIPjyEogLOqFuH2L4uMlFZM6Q/s320/jan-bar.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67hkaeSs56DTOVX3biRjyvQfC22haVZZL1_hhs4SokSVgrOHL_C7n7JF4h1a-BqFQgiRMTkbMS-e0rKeJSnUrJdo8rj2ZvlR4Pog_jvPr3_qeg6kOI8V5ZXuK0rljWAs59BL6zvlQ2aE/s1600/jan-trend.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg67hkaeSs56DTOVX3biRjyvQfC22haVZZL1_hhs4SokSVgrOHL_C7n7JF4h1a-BqFQgiRMTkbMS-e0rKeJSnUrJdo8rj2ZvlR4Pog_jvPr3_qeg6kOI8V5ZXuK0rljWAs59BL6zvlQ2aE/s320/jan-trend.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Side discussion: It looks like the April 2011 Kindle store opening in Germany has put that market at roughly half way between 2009 and 2010 ebook penetration in 2011. In other words the German market seems to be about 18 months behind the maturity of the US market. It looks like that market is poised to take off. I suspect the German fixed price book market will slow ereader adoption until readers discover indie authors. Sometime in the next two years we'll see a nice chunk of customers enter the market. As well as customers from other regions ebook readers enter.<br />
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Got Popcorn?<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-40787743104761847392012-04-08T09:08:00.000-07:002012-04-08T09:08:22.050-07:00Ebook growth vs. predictions<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Exponential charts are tricky. They can be used to minimize fast growth when it is quantitatively fast, just slow percentage YOY growth. That is the state we're in now. With ebooks at 27% market share (probably far better as that is comparing retail print versus wholesale ebooks), one would expect slower growth as order of magnitude would have ebooks at over 90% market share in no time. </div>
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Notice how fast the ebook growth was proportionately in 2009 and 2010? The market went from nothing to a significant market. In 2011, the publishers in the AAP's efforts to preserve print book growth worked until the holiday 2011 ereaders hit customer hands. Notice on the 2nd graph that sales are still accelerating faster than the 2010 liner trend line. So even if the exponential chart looks somewhat flat, it is still healthy growth. </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4EdNigrbpZg8IO8-0KjPS-_9oKNMzb5lKyWpGBKbqAIoqxIH7Sa1k7lEzh_T6KsTHsUHxWhRdrgETvZx2hI_RlQhIMyFAdKuZgRF2iXrGFlWHlpdNdkiFD646B1Ib7VzXEzS3NswN7T8/s1600/January+ebook+sales-exp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4EdNigrbpZg8IO8-0KjPS-_9oKNMzb5lKyWpGBKbqAIoqxIH7Sa1k7lEzh_T6KsTHsUHxWhRdrgETvZx2hI_RlQhIMyFAdKuZgRF2iXrGFlWHlpdNdkiFD646B1Ib7VzXEzS3NswN7T8/s320/January+ebook+sales-exp.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7A-2k6tnVEezTu-BC4FtwJr2t9k2PmG8MttDsuCkP9SJkxpXoza-IgsC9vYoh0y9mAl0z5txVuz5WbYBiMaLywovpGpSxw1ND0GqFJTiz93vqs8SlMxSrod2YQQDnAnAQZZ7ce0_Kg0I/s1600/January+ebook+sales.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7A-2k6tnVEezTu-BC4FtwJr2t9k2PmG8MttDsuCkP9SJkxpXoza-IgsC9vYoh0y9mAl0z5txVuz5WbYBiMaLywovpGpSxw1ND0GqFJTiz93vqs8SlMxSrod2YQQDnAnAQZZ7ce0_Kg0I/s320/January+ebook+sales.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/01/testing-predictions.html">http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/01/testing-predictions.html</a>
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Compare to the above trendline/prediction. Ebooks are slightly above the curve. My 50% market share prediction by 1/31/2013 might not be off by much. :)</div>
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Note: I still expect print books to hold on. There is a nostalgia with books. However, the economies of scale of print are starting to fall. In particular with MMPB. </div>
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Got Popcorn?<br />Neil</div>
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<br /></div>wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-90811946170999096082012-03-29T20:18:00.000-07:002012-03-29T20:18:11.487-07:00January 2012 E-book salesThe data from the AAP is becoming more and more obscure.<br />
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What we know:
1. Ebook sales are up. Substantially for the AAP reporting authors.<br />
2. Ebook sales are continuing to accelerate.<br />
3. Print share of the book market did ok.<br />
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There was a HUGE change in how print data was collected. All indications are that the new methodology artificially grew print versus ebooks.<br />
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Notice that e-books are now 31% of adult sales for the AAP! JA Konrath has pointed about that print would become a subsidiary right. It looks like that will be the case in 2013!<br />
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I was worried that ebooks were slowing growth. This data clearly shows I shouldn't have thought twice about the form factor.
<a href="http://www.mediabistro.com/ebooknewser/ebook-sales-up-in-january-aap-reports_b21462">I thank Mediabistro</a> for having the data once again.
Just two charts this month due to the obscured data. But they tell a clear story:
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKxd9CfBXMptPYFdLNmH4duJdanotZKY8A76FNRxggqcN7FSo0wYAzRZozOhrAsP3eDYSC4YIKvw-V2GG4frn1T_zoAYlYjUcT139XJwh7VlQq9LxaYqKJsT_w5xE5TQCHedgorn7htTI/s1600/January+ebook+sales.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKxd9CfBXMptPYFdLNmH4duJdanotZKY8A76FNRxggqcN7FSo0wYAzRZozOhrAsP3eDYSC4YIKvw-V2GG4frn1T_zoAYlYjUcT139XJwh7VlQq9LxaYqKJsT_w5xE5TQCHedgorn7htTI/s320/January+ebook+sales.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s320/january+ebook+share.png" width="320" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjX-Vwiu2EIIAa9Q-L8uxcFLTm6QDEbopKsHsIrzK1fEp9TJOdD1FTHgii2DKty8kh-B-JORXDEkG2aPmRvcAr8-xWFvyB5c9mtge3Ph0K2_nI1aUg4Hk5tliIqYtZUfLGCPxPIsu9GuuE/s1600/january+ebook+share.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><br /></a></div>wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-55857685015274837062012-03-17T21:00:00.001-07:002012-03-17T21:00:35.863-07:00Self Publisher market share check upMy current prediction is that self published authors are at 30% market share for December 2011 (the latest there is data). This is baed off a straight line approximation from a mere two data points:
1. December 2009, I found a link (not finding it right now) where 'Boutique authors' were 10% of the market.
2. I scanned the Amazon lists in December 2010 and estimated indie authors were 20% to 33.3% of the ebook market. I took the 20% number.
By definition, that is 10% growth per year (if its linear). So lets see, is there any information out there?
<a href="http://www.thebookseller.com/user/login?destination=node%2F106186">One British link </a> puts it 'as much as 25%.' (Note: By number of books)
So testing my hypothesis:
1. The UK Amazon store is 'younger' than the US store, So Indie author penetration should be about 18 months to two years behind the US.
2. One year is 10% market share (by dollars)...
So this implies the US market is about 45% Indie market share (by books)! Now the problem is, my numbers are by dollars. Since big6 books sell at higher prices, we could very well be at 30% Indie author market share (by dollars).
So my admittedly simple estimate looks to be on track. The question is, what is the breaking point point? When is Indie ebooks such a large fraction of the market that the big6 loose 'economy of scale?' I doubt for a few years. Is it any wonder they make tons of noise about Amazon?
Got Popcorn?
Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-60331046579252096562012-03-10T11:08:00.000-08:002012-03-10T11:08:50.795-08:002011 Ebook Sales SummaryOk, I've been a bit tardy in my posts. But now that December book sales are out (in their normal obscure form), we can look back in graphical form at all the changes in the industry.
There is one flaw in the data; as I peruse the charts one thing screams out; all indications are there are sales not being reported. In other words, I suspect indie ebook sales are a faster growing section of the book market. How I pine for Amazon figures...
To the graphs. The first observation is that AAP ebook sales have flat-lined. They are going neither up nor down for the publishers (the few that report). Does this pass a test on empirical observations on the growth of the market? Nope. I travel for work and I meet too many individuals who recently purchased a Kindle. This implies the ebook market is shifting away from the reporting AAP publishers... Good for Indie authors! :)
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7FbMKHm0V7Yn52lfsHfyjGzxoV67-yPDYT4ZR7vBSAzKn_7fugHsAV5g24FVf0g6a46pf0Ajf2j9ZKskQW1ijLyaDqb71aoBg0CW_a6iKYxzGh3_l6M9D27GpAzM4jojDIhCEQZntmW0/s1600/01-ebook+sales-flattened.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7FbMKHm0V7Yn52lfsHfyjGzxoV67-yPDYT4ZR7vBSAzKn_7fugHsAV5g24FVf0g6a46pf0Ajf2j9ZKskQW1ijLyaDqb71aoBg0CW_a6iKYxzGh3_l6M9D27GpAzM4jojDIhCEQZntmW0/s320/01-ebook+sales-flattened.png" /></a></div>
I've often plotted e-book growth on a year over year basis to help show the growth. Since this is AAP data, could it be that they've priced their ebooks above the volume of the market?
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTOh0Yzx-bofE3W7fnIP8XOI6NpONoDgYGGCSksetVjzZUhGy2L2ayKPdP6adrnJfKSX5W1unSj9Yu_tv3tO91OJiJ3fDozaBphaR9hWnx7A4KU7HvohE7kgqtpdnCm_p_HX4Ud8JYwEM/s1600/02-ebook-sales-trend.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTOh0Yzx-bofE3W7fnIP8XOI6NpONoDgYGGCSksetVjzZUhGy2L2ayKPdP6adrnJfKSX5W1unSj9Yu_tv3tO91OJiJ3fDozaBphaR9hWnx7A4KU7HvohE7kgqtpdnCm_p_HX4Ud8JYwEM/s320/02-ebook-sales-trend.png" /></a></div>
Ebook sales are flat for the AAP. Have enough readers discovered indie authors?
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9TX-vrC9rkC1HVy1pDxi_WUNpHRZJ9f2devQ_BHkWYN3Uk0pL4ZL61w1DpmVRfSoWFKA8OnY8avUgq5Lg_XhyphenhyphenYvISiGHhpUCBXJo-FblFNHAS4i6ubqOSpbAGr7h3femkrzqsElutFRk/s1600/03-trade.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9TX-vrC9rkC1HVy1pDxi_WUNpHRZJ9f2devQ_BHkWYN3Uk0pL4ZL61w1DpmVRfSoWFKA8OnY8avUgq5Lg_XhyphenhyphenYvISiGHhpUCBXJo-FblFNHAS4i6ubqOSpbAGr7h3femkrzqsElutFRk/s320/03-trade.png" /></a></div>
Overall trade paper is overall weak, but not horrid for December. But recall, overall it was a weak year. Note, the AAP lumps religion (all formats) and ebooks as part of trade. I specifically break out paper sales.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigINHHMcoqrtLcVDSHSQmSZM1qof4RK3deKR5Q91658ac-rS1Glc5W8d-NPsGU5SvqAFwujLzrKq-ap-SRyUglZSKqMGL7XiTRXipWHgWA9GVoPsz-iN15VTW1jPGbBUNn5wU9fWqCuIQ/s1600/04-hardcover.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigINHHMcoqrtLcVDSHSQmSZM1qof4RK3deKR5Q91658ac-rS1Glc5W8d-NPsGU5SvqAFwujLzrKq-ap-SRyUglZSKqMGL7XiTRXipWHgWA9GVoPsz-iN15VTW1jPGbBUNn5wU9fWqCuIQ/s320/04-hardcover.png" /></a></div>
Hardcover is overall doing ok. But wait for the seasonal graph... It was a weak year overall.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2XSdtrRG_Wr6r-tJ8w0tjNb3zQRmXzIof929cDuOvk264rDgRc3_LsKmKVJgp8lnHR-HrtHmD2_pKGYo_oiygzoc5KsQ9Zj3eSdWqQGH8PyzqBJIsqvTvXE38mhlAfLIPhlD12h3fZhM/s1600/05-paperback.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2XSdtrRG_Wr6r-tJ8w0tjNb3zQRmXzIof929cDuOvk264rDgRc3_LsKmKVJgp8lnHR-HrtHmD2_pKGYo_oiygzoc5KsQ9Zj3eSdWqQGH8PyzqBJIsqvTvXE38mhlAfLIPhlD12h3fZhM/s320/05-paperback.png" /></a></div>
Paperback seems to have returned to a normal year post the mid-year Borders related trama to this format's sales. This is a pleasant surprise!
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Overall children's book sales have held up. This has to warm and readers heart. I personally expected iPad apps to have cut more into this category. Overall I'm happy to see these results.
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MMPB continues along the same trend-line to its death. We are within 30 months of the end of the format. :( This has me sad as once this was once what I read more of than anything else. But then again, every mmpb reader that I know has an ereader (or two, if one counts tablets). Perhaps the format will survive at airports and drugstores in the spinning racks?
<b> Seasonal Graphs </b>
Time to look at how each format is selling seasonally. I don not like comparing to just one month as often sales shift from a month to another as downstream customer buying patterns change.
I like using bar charts when there is fast growth. Thus, the only format worth plotting in bar chart form is ebooks. E-books have not shown the mid to late year growth of prior years for AAP ebooks despite showing tremendous year over year growth. I wonder if enough authors have defected to self-publishing? (I can only speculate.) It seems like every author I buy has self-published or will as soon as they can put their 'ducks in a row.'
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Since I've already commented on other seasonal graphs, I'll end typing here and just note that the ebook revolution did another leg up in 2011. While growth was faster than 2010, it seems to be slowing for the AAP. There are two possible conclusions from this:
1) Ebooks are approaching the half way point for adoption (unlikely this early) or
2) Self-published ebooks have grown far faster than I have predicted.
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibC6AMJvSjik5eBa_PcAp4njz8GL7s4la1QIxNbApLddKq9_bQrUbLPnQ8c22TVHEecyWjeHa03lZPooZCr9Ph8WTRMobplhe3_rtWZCorHloU3fKRYpr7INbJx3OIDBpp0Ga43WWV528/s1600/10-mmpb-seasonal.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibC6AMJvSjik5eBa_PcAp4njz8GL7s4la1QIxNbApLddKq9_bQrUbLPnQ8c22TVHEecyWjeHa03lZPooZCr9Ph8WTRMobplhe3_rtWZCorHloU3fKRYpr7INbJx3OIDBpp0Ga43WWV528/s320/10-mmpb-seasonal.png" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8NHx_2asCR9akRLdX2YLUYxGKEqgCgM5jRzq0D8ing34j52CpwlDoUsUkA6_eXX4q2tIuuIndWVqp4MxOOq3q_MogMhw1LTp_0S3_f_t-wuNxBvhoaJiNrOoZh8L2AJ4hqD8nRYg80o0/s1600/11-childrens-seasonal.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear:left; float:left;margin-right:1em; margin-bottom:1em"><img border="0" height="233" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8NHx_2asCR9akRLdX2YLUYxGKEqgCgM5jRzq0D8ing34j52CpwlDoUsUkA6_eXX4q2tIuuIndWVqp4MxOOq3q_MogMhw1LTp_0S3_f_t-wuNxBvhoaJiNrOoZh8L2AJ4hqD8nRYg80o0/s320/11-childrens-seasonal.png" /></a></div>wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-88383167309085030892012-01-04T17:22:00.000-08:002012-01-07T14:45:54.748-08:00October 2011 e-book salesOctober is the best month to sell print books. It used to be September, but computerization has pushed even an 'old school' industry like print to a more 'just in time' inventory system. (Good! Fewer returns will help save the industry.) So it shouldn't be a surprise that ebooks lost market share despite a small sales growth.<br /><br />Sales of trade books were good in October. I speculate this is partially due to the 'Borders surplus stock' having worked its way through the channels. I submit that the recovery of adult paperback and children's books, two categories Borders was strong in, are compelling reasons to believe we are just now past the industry disruption of the Boarders close down.<br /><br />Do note that data is intentionally being obscured. I had to back out these numbers, so there is more uncertainty in this month's data than prior posts.<br /><br />Enough discussion, onto the graphs. Notice how ebook sales continue to climb? <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcbXVl-p3FSe2AIOaItkntzouzH1MPj4y4avqc5fU5kudkrOG-AYk6kKVaYLsgYhGXcoPkZGpTjKnjvnzPeibc2HrlquC-fZodpYyqFt3xeqch9xlwCuDyD0Y6WxUIfr6FnkLbZHuH8AM/s1600/01-ebook-sales-trend.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcbXVl-p3FSe2AIOaItkntzouzH1MPj4y4avqc5fU5kudkrOG-AYk6kKVaYLsgYhGXcoPkZGpTjKnjvnzPeibc2HrlquC-fZodpYyqFt3xeqch9xlwCuDyD0Y6WxUIfr6FnkLbZHuH8AM/s320/01-ebook-sales-trend.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5694960708663415122" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Notice how October is usually the best selling month for paper-trade books (next image). Overall, trade (paper) had a good month. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvYgWQfMKWjoilwkgmc8USRBRX1bU_nXIWKHg-kKX1Fv1T7jKViTquXnYfIpsizlWX29QDB6eWg6bmUc4wzaSP-aJOgOxum1nr20Om6kCic_xVi2LmEWSZDK_Zj_xojdnXw702bFsGa4w/s1600/02-trade.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvYgWQfMKWjoilwkgmc8USRBRX1bU_nXIWKHg-kKX1Fv1T7jKViTquXnYfIpsizlWX29QDB6eWg6bmUc4wzaSP-aJOgOxum1nr20Om6kCic_xVi2LmEWSZDK_Zj_xojdnXw702bFsGa4w/s320/02-trade.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695015695444459186" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />It was not a good month for hardcover sales. The lack of a strong peak in Hardcover is one reason I speculate *some* of the strength this month was restocking post Borders liquidation. If there was an overall return to paper, we would have seen stronger recovery in Hardcovers. However, there is a good chance that 'just in time' ordering is putting this format out a month in the purchase cycle.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQN97UhPHMsWAzs_ldeuLrrmIYuelF-PvcZov8zMlCtVl-SjyrfgTKofMHMyRkwdeGlcCmGI7DxusEwPwtxA8MMwHuwxu_yzYJ3abdqwAmUS_eO7sSPFXHNLxm6ABQ_ooFRL291FtzpgM/s1600/03-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQN97UhPHMsWAzs_ldeuLrrmIYuelF-PvcZov8zMlCtVl-SjyrfgTKofMHMyRkwdeGlcCmGI7DxusEwPwtxA8MMwHuwxu_yzYJ3abdqwAmUS_eO7sSPFXHNLxm6ABQ_ooFRL291FtzpgM/s320/03-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695016561392000578" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The dwindling of my (previous) favorite paper format, mass market paperback now has a definitive trend. A trend that shows the format will be out of production after 2014. :( I've been writing for a while how this genre requires a recovery to sustain 'economy of scale.' Its now almost too late. I expect MMPB to fold back into paperback for some publishers soon.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVYVZzY8rxOugwigz8lGtcMwwdyQmFjvkJgDov5-mkeUJRp4RkBqlTUCD4Vl0nOQRfDDCVZFUx3L4zpVq_LAhRzCOczI0wMlU32uS2qOCbMTBXKr1vE00krRpNsvnJYx3lqR1b4_RsoeE/s1600/04-MMPB.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 232px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVYVZzY8rxOugwigz8lGtcMwwdyQmFjvkJgDov5-mkeUJRp4RkBqlTUCD4Vl0nOQRfDDCVZFUx3L4zpVq_LAhRzCOczI0wMlU32uS2qOCbMTBXKr1vE00krRpNsvnJYx3lqR1b4_RsoeE/s320/04-MMPB.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695017362538454114" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Borders once dominated paperback sales. I believe the absolutely spectacular spike in paperbacks can only be explained by a 'springback effect' post Borders liquidation. I'm happy to see it! <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizAChfjRiVdr1aHlrNbH-4H9YPne2JRaFXGBuFUgefq_fOvgN_aOazPfjNT0uC7UO5hHXgi6gBjKO121WefeiI3uQTERiKow381tbzV0zzXRYz7TaFa0PBxZflBv3HTERGh4iUi_H-Ll8/s1600/05-paperback.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEizAChfjRiVdr1aHlrNbH-4H9YPne2JRaFXGBuFUgefq_fOvgN_aOazPfjNT0uC7UO5hHXgi6gBjKO121WefeiI3uQTERiKow381tbzV0zzXRYz7TaFa0PBxZflBv3HTERGh4iUi_H-Ll8/s320/05-paperback.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695018426893463682" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Childrens books had a nice spike too (for a non-Harry Potter year). I speculate this isn't just Borders. I speculate that Netflix and music subscriptions are 'taking away' gifting opportunities for relatives who wish to buy physical gifts. I speculate relatives are going back to gifting books. Any thoughts?<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCcYGhCorOdtvUB59rpleoTEUz3-GnS5662V9Zq8WbCJ-QlB6RDDbIrc4zYKkLZhi6V5v77EJwl29zTqrjVbc7AuA5Sk1uW3eft6mebkK_Q9SJ59f8-tn9Q_CGNVX7flr-d0uVR4NBc14/s1600/06-childrens.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCcYGhCorOdtvUB59rpleoTEUz3-GnS5662V9Zq8WbCJ-QlB6RDDbIrc4zYKkLZhi6V5v77EJwl29zTqrjVbc7AuA5Sk1uW3eft6mebkK_Q9SJ59f8-tn9Q_CGNVX7flr-d0uVR4NBc14/s320/06-childrens.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695019098620723426" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b> Seasonal Graphs </b><br /><br />Due to the sheer amount of mis-information and obscurity on book/ebook sales, I like to plot seasonal graphs to show how the market is changing.<br /><br />I start with a bar graph on ebooks. This shows how incredibly fast the year on year (YOY) growth has been for ebooks. :) It also shows how analogous the sales pattern in 2011 was to 2010. I now believe 2013 will be the last year with over doubling of ebook sales. Note: I'm not saying the market won't keep growing. Technology growth tends to slow once half the potential market has converted to the technology. That half way point for ebooks will happen in 2012, but the slowing of the growth shouldn't be obvious until 2014.<br /><br /><br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU4-MbqeVwF9W_-n4ABrGOLMP0HCapXBfwOS0j_EgHfGZ9dQvmrHx33ZVB3DDhtJl6DsHyQbEDrr25b1hkTjYhISXN-Gwbbc7qgmYYdstO_cq1z0Ve2mAiBuukewJLoAoE2bkt31oYSWU/s1600/07-bar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhU4-MbqeVwF9W_-n4ABrGOLMP0HCapXBfwOS0j_EgHfGZ9dQvmrHx33ZVB3DDhtJl6DsHyQbEDrr25b1hkTjYhISXN-Gwbbc7qgmYYdstO_cq1z0Ve2mAiBuukewJLoAoE2bkt31oYSWU/s320/07-bar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695020016265064834" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The initial buying of Hardcovers pre-Holiday sales are weak but not horrid. I've heard rumors that hardcover buying was delayed this year. Since that is a more businesslike way to stock inventory... I could believe it. Oh, I'm skeptical, but we could see a further compression of the book season. <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPtAO37E2A1nXbQTZ_PMUbV7nGbgLPD1tqI17MwwY2J1gTVrwPJA4Vy7kf7WRl2N5uj-5dhf68uBMo7yJcR4jgO7eYzHYH5DUFk6LF_ROnkwJSxKAe7e_VgUyRSJKUjiK09FgLa0UOoDg/s1600/08-season-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPtAO37E2A1nXbQTZ_PMUbV7nGbgLPD1tqI17MwwY2J1gTVrwPJA4Vy7kf7WRl2N5uj-5dhf68uBMo7yJcR4jgO7eYzHYH5DUFk6LF_ROnkwJSxKAe7e_VgUyRSJKUjiK09FgLa0UOoDg/s320/08-season-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695020864262760274" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The paperback spike looks less impressive when plotted versus prior years. See the June deficit? It is possible the October spike is just restocking shelves post Borders liquidation. :( <br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5bD4jaPy_ESFtIN5TegkuKkcnBgBjx_SkLSXf2OFA-dmo1i7NNe08n9CM4LlEbU-M7GKK2zNhNfu-aaIWUyOpS3bId5EkdiVFs6BGD0lFp27u1vvPzw3ZWVDL7ItgI9V_kDwpI4l0pAw/s1600/09-paperback.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5bD4jaPy_ESFtIN5TegkuKkcnBgBjx_SkLSXf2OFA-dmo1i7NNe08n9CM4LlEbU-M7GKK2zNhNfu-aaIWUyOpS3bId5EkdiVFs6BGD0lFp27u1vvPzw3ZWVDL7ItgI9V_kDwpI4l0pAw/s320/09-paperback.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695021946987626418" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Since the trend down in MMPB crossed the 2010/2011 year boundary, the doom of MMPB is less obvious when plotted this way, but the decline is still obvious. Hence why plotting data different ways to see trends is important.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO1HrrD5NQ2iTAF9YE7fzgz8nEgRW0luQZ2_Z8jVJIjOkPAlSnXhD6j1yXiQgyi7ydWF-OthXL_Q997vmElVqN0mN1B-zIcH1moUAu5ll5UWp3nDcr5O4eicCXjLf9N817jMn740QL2tw/s1600/10-mmpb-seasonal.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgO1HrrD5NQ2iTAF9YE7fzgz8nEgRW0luQZ2_Z8jVJIjOkPAlSnXhD6j1yXiQgyi7ydWF-OthXL_Q997vmElVqN0mN1B-zIcH1moUAu5ll5UWp3nDcr5O4eicCXjLf9N817jMn740QL2tw/s320/10-mmpb-seasonal.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695022594507216514" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The spike up in Children's sales is greater than the post-Borders deficit! Hence my theory relatives are shifting gift buying back to books. :)<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq8VERBVKBDD-lnTaRJ6B96o-f6fDsJGCXTisdYeq-EVJbdml8edaTyHKGOO3Gp-CL9NsOzJCrWkZoHIn8eUjnB90Hk00qQrVFVS8VC0nW_arbQAHhDRdf2FTUTCqBCmty_pAWju57J2E/s1600/11-seasonal-kids.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiq8VERBVKBDD-lnTaRJ6B96o-f6fDsJGCXTisdYeq-EVJbdml8edaTyHKGOO3Gp-CL9NsOzJCrWkZoHIn8eUjnB90Hk00qQrVFVS8VC0nW_arbQAHhDRdf2FTUTCqBCmty_pAWju57J2E/s320/11-seasonal-kids.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695023195893372034" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I've been calculating the trend and comparing with year ago sales. I created this bar chart to emphasize change. The most interesting tidbit is plotting this way we continue to see 2nd half 2011 ebook sales grew at a slower rate than the 1st half. However, the growth was still strong.<br /><br /><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnt3Kvcgr48kEfF16Xudbp5RV4ATAszcZBJmj8ExVXP9YibhYi2ruBG5_0NpBSzHF2x5oO4m-TVPYlv_ISj1d5mxaibC51atAkQ_9kqMlO6qHWRkvOS21lwi3gdkmfdWxaH9BJxDYfGVo/s1600/12-newbar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnt3Kvcgr48kEfF16Xudbp5RV4ATAszcZBJmj8ExVXP9YibhYi2ruBG5_0NpBSzHF2x5oO4m-TVPYlv_ISj1d5mxaibC51atAkQ_9kqMlO6qHWRkvOS21lwi3gdkmfdWxaH9BJxDYfGVo/s320/12-newbar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5695024051674157938" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />All the graphs show a (one month) recovery of print sales (excluding MMPB). They also show ebooks are strong. I speculate the next big splash will be November post the K4 deliveries. It will be very interesting to see the January sales data (which won't be released for about 3 months). I expect to see another start of year spike.<br /><br /><br />Got Popcorn?<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-87840974372030018752011-11-20T16:14:00.000-08:002011-11-20T17:15:22.291-08:00First Week with Kindle FireMy first impressions of the Kindle Fire are quite positive. In most ways, I cannot believe the thing only cost $199. I haven't tried everything, but so far I recommend the Kindle fire. <br /><br /><b>What I like:</b><br />1. Portability: It is easier to carry around than my K2 (even w/Marware case). For my young children, it is a perfect size.<br />2. Readability: The screen is easier to read than my laptop or the iPad1 for book text. <br />3. Speed: It is snappy. It makes our iPad1 feel slow<br />4. Browser: It just works. I need to learn a few more of the 'tricks' though. So expect a later review.<br />5. Second way to view books. This moved 3 books, already read, to the top of the TBR pile. I rather like searching by covers.<br />6. Value. The iPad in a child's hands is something one must watch (to keep it safe)<br />7. Setup. Just remember it will need wifi and a while on the charger for initial patch download.<br /><br /><b>What I am 50/50 on:</b><br />1. Battery life. It is trending towards 7 hours of battery life on mixed use (games and reading). Compare this versus 9+ hours on the iPad1. My family has used up the battery before the day was done. But it was needing a charge after we arrived back home.<br />2. The onscreen keyboard. Perhaps it is the 7" screen crimping the layout and my man fingers? <br />3. Eye strain. Its less than a laptop or iPad, but far more than e-ink. I've read three books on the Kindle fire with far less stain than other (non-Nook) LCDs. I intend to keep the K2 for most book reading.<br />4. Screen size. I love the portability, but the screen in landscape mode is only as wide as the iPad's in portrait. It is perfect for books. Ok, for simple games (angry birds, etc.), ok for browsing (in landscape only), and... Its ok.<br /><br /><b>What I do not like:</b><br />1. Highlighting text in the browser is done how? This crimps participating in blogs. In fact, I spend too much time on blogs to ever have a tablet be more than a second computer. This is true of our iPad and certainly true of the Kindle Fire. <br />2. No SD card slot. This would make life much easier. <br />3. Some of the commands have too small a difference between one command and the other and thus it is almost random <br />4. How do you turn off ordering without a password? Seriously, my three year old has figured out the store. How do I loan her the Fire without finding a hundred new apps, books, and videos loaded? I worry about the Amazon store integration too when loaning to a young child...<br /><br />What I haven't tried:<br />1. Sideloading. So much of my Amazon content was available I haven't needed to yet. I will be moving over my mp3 collection soon as well has home videos. <br />2. Organizing my books. I'm just not seeing an easy way, so I'll have to Google how to do it. I wish my K2's collections had moved over... :( Why repeat that work...<br />3. Videos. We already, through other means, have free shipping from Amazon. I haven't been able to justify paying for Prime for the videos... I might in the future. <br /><br />I've read some negative reviews on the Fire I just do not get. Ok, the navigation isn't iPad navigation; it took me a day to find all the tricks. If you've never used an iPad/iPhone, the controls will be just as easy to learn as Apple's. There are some quirks with the control interface, but only that notable if you come over from the iPad. The Fire isn't an iPad replacement; it is so cheap and portable it creates a new category that I believe will sell far more units. <br /><br />In price, it competes with the 8GB iPod touch. But doing "screen area is proportional to diagonal squared," I couldn't imagine doing more than a 'snap read' on a 3.5" screen. Most of those I know who read on smartphones become annoyed at the page turns after ten to fifteen minutes of reading (the format doesn't 'fade away' as with a Kindle e-ink). With the Kindle Fire, it is suitable for an hour or two of reading. That said, for long reads I will turn it off and return to the K2.<br /><br />For kids books, it is excellent! However, my three year old isn't able to navigate as easy as the iPad1. For books with graphs, the Kindle Fire works well too. <br /><br />I've found is that due to its portability it is far more useful. It fits in my coat pockets or cargo pant pockets (again, it is smaller than a K2) so it is far more likely to travel than our iPad. My one regret? It doesn't have a cell phone interface! If it did (and a camera w/more flash storage), it would be an ideal convergence device. <br /><br />I expect the Kindle Fire to sell out. For the price, it is that good.<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-86938179923095789212011-11-12T21:23:00.000-08:002011-11-12T21:39:33.135-08:0031.4% growth Ereaders in 2012? No... Faster!<A href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20111109PD216.html">Digitimes</A> is predicting ereader sales slow their growth in 2012 (globally) vs. 2011 to only 31.4% YOY growth. That link is also predicting that Amazon's share:<br /><br />2008: 65.7%<br />2009: 63.4%<br />2010: 62.8%<br />2011: 73.7% of 22M ereaders.<br /><br /><br />My comments: For there only to be 31.4% growth after 100% growth year after year doesn't make sense. Market penetration tends to be symmetrical until a new technology displaces the old. Considering how many new buyers of the lower cost Kindles are coming out of the woodwork, I expect far faster growth in 2012. But... I also expect 2012 to be the last year of fast ereader growth. <br /><br />It takes 2 to 3 years of ereader sales in a region to stimulate the growth. Book readers want to see their friends try out an ereader before they 'give up the smell' of books. The K1 was launched in 2007; we've yet to see more than about a quarter of books selling via ebook (in dollars). <br /><br />I'm also very bullish on Amazon doing well in India (due to the quantity of people there who have the ability to read in English). With the new Kobo buyout, I'm also more bullish on ereaders in Asia (Japan in 2012, but all of Asia in the next 5 years). <br /><br />My prediction is 45 to 55 million ereaders in 2012 (global prediction). I also predict, in 2012, that about 25% of the growth in ebooks will be via tablets (Kindle Fire, iPad 2/3, Nook Tablet, other tablets). In my opinion the rapid growth of ereading on cell phones is coming to an end. Oh, I predict new readers will still try out the Kindle app on cell phones and existing ereaders will take 'convenience reads' on their cell phones. My opinion is based on how many people are switching from reading on their cell phones to ereaders or tablets. 7" tablets are small enough to tote around (10" tablets are not... trust me. I made the mistake of lugging our iPad around today). <br /><br />I wonder how the overall ebook market share will go. I'm waiting to see how the Kobo buyout works. IMHO, that could be the #1 global threat to the Kindle. <br /><br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-14000041174638142292011-11-02T21:26:00.000-07:002011-11-02T21:35:13.147-07:00August 2011 Ebook SalesAs David noted, time to dust off the charts, we have AAP numbers. <br /><br />Note: Its late, kids didn't want to sleep and I have an early meeting. So I'm just going to note that ebook sales were good, trade sales show a downward trend that is in line with prior months. I'm also skipping some graphs (Mea Culpa). But the main data is here for your enjoyment:<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDWVf4AgqTyii0-CQL9V3R0jkoH1r1t6rukXAvfrZ9oErdwhVqzMj7WQGtIb4UD1lQLX_J-MD0YDNJXTa-jDUd3vs-_w-J_WDAfSaSNOWMnae29plzrBHx7rvZvcs7wv9MfOmcX7gPolg/s1600/01-market-share.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDWVf4AgqTyii0-CQL9V3R0jkoH1r1t6rukXAvfrZ9oErdwhVqzMj7WQGtIb4UD1lQLX_J-MD0YDNJXTa-jDUd3vs-_w-J_WDAfSaSNOWMnae29plzrBHx7rvZvcs7wv9MfOmcX7gPolg/s320/01-market-share.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622635284685762" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFPRKUOmxUH5tGMEEIizNTF0prdQE5Soz0omGXcAfiaActTPUt8JBnoSUe2KKHn5pE8-CiRpibJNqitQ3MyH9UpApZ2YIlO2eZBM7teWpAspC5OdgZ_hv04l10xM5qYnE8q8dJW-8xKo/s1600/02-growth.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFPRKUOmxUH5tGMEEIizNTF0prdQE5Soz0omGXcAfiaActTPUt8JBnoSUe2KKHn5pE8-CiRpibJNqitQ3MyH9UpApZ2YIlO2eZBM7teWpAspC5OdgZ_hv04l10xM5qYnE8q8dJW-8xKo/s320/02-growth.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622624868161330" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8N8RDa49SaLrvHSYRsyvw6tr_ghCKaoNIEZowOj7F3tpcyJq0TTSXakNmSbcPGTW_4S16XMs9j1Cq10cc9StlhyCbkw2qdu6Ns1D9OcFG3I4UHSWvEiiQRPL7RBL7lFCH9UwmQLiSETI/s1600/03-market-share.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8N8RDa49SaLrvHSYRsyvw6tr_ghCKaoNIEZowOj7F3tpcyJq0TTSXakNmSbcPGTW_4S16XMs9j1Cq10cc9StlhyCbkw2qdu6Ns1D9OcFG3I4UHSWvEiiQRPL7RBL7lFCH9UwmQLiSETI/s320/03-market-share.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622616891113890" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQJZOtLAvHR9jrExj-TLlTn7nZiXtgf0idGRxFFpNC2oIsSnTu2ClvMDiULHmbaMw8Po4kPAlc6wVYoR4DOYn_QOnnlHoQhG2ch8syA5B3xoIOy9_JPZxfEuYzYeX2HPkTiHbOhjAUWqc/s1600/04-trade-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQJZOtLAvHR9jrExj-TLlTn7nZiXtgf0idGRxFFpNC2oIsSnTu2ClvMDiULHmbaMw8Po4kPAlc6wVYoR4DOYn_QOnnlHoQhG2ch8syA5B3xoIOy9_JPZxfEuYzYeX2HPkTiHbOhjAUWqc/s320/04-trade-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622605476092738" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-GuUeqvZOjQn7sGLr4O_UiCUOli0vYbT-JhVanNogXGclVgoadKD_ygLsivQBnVIzQTwwq7ThgIjL0j4G9PB77ZjJfaxNvw89D9u-3CB0UCW1l8LG45Yaq55WFKn5kxdwf14KgaotLPY/s1600/06-hardcover-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi-GuUeqvZOjQn7sGLr4O_UiCUOli0vYbT-JhVanNogXGclVgoadKD_ygLsivQBnVIzQTwwq7ThgIjL0j4G9PB77ZjJfaxNvw89D9u-3CB0UCW1l8LG45Yaq55WFKn5kxdwf14KgaotLPY/s320/06-hardcover-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622131666693346" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxjj_SgLjcfX1Rnnjr_N_sUnaXuoYi6Ixk4vlWcduFCep1kQj2wWrBVFTd6TjYwKLgiM0r6fi9OlKGhhlRACBK8zSu59jUpoLnl0bgrNpz50d4PTM2-yYVL_B3vr_E-mkd1rSXHiLsT4Q/s1600/08-childrens-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxjj_SgLjcfX1Rnnjr_N_sUnaXuoYi6Ixk4vlWcduFCep1kQj2wWrBVFTd6TjYwKLgiM0r6fi9OlKGhhlRACBK8zSu59jUpoLnl0bgrNpz50d4PTM2-yYVL_B3vr_E-mkd1rSXHiLsT4Q/s320/08-childrens-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622123638186802" /></a><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJqKg6jsqDKY9yopumv7nUginFhra_qqE6bP-Sls7m1IlOH1B3nzWoyVK9KRT3QTFMmdu35YOq-hOMzG4WuEaKcoW3IibS4JgVeTRKumUg0InsVFlJ371CeL4yhcTvGHCa6cIu2DuTQSI/s1600/08-paperback-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJqKg6jsqDKY9yopumv7nUginFhra_qqE6bP-Sls7m1IlOH1B3nzWoyVK9KRT3QTFMmdu35YOq-hOMzG4WuEaKcoW3IibS4JgVeTRKumUg0InsVFlJ371CeL4yhcTvGHCa6cIu2DuTQSI/s320/08-paperback-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622095144849826" /></a><br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9ZdJbl24ee6gDYVs0uURIoymzlUePNFNb204WWLf_MdX2I62_kku0vbDsbcvJfbetj7-tK48yqbIqWWge8U4AEHHex-0cGyxtGOBpZeWG_YSb1W0GciMn6Y1iWsBaGdPrW4AJZLbf9b4/s1600/05-mmpb-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9ZdJbl24ee6gDYVs0uURIoymzlUePNFNb204WWLf_MdX2I62_kku0vbDsbcvJfbetj7-tK48yqbIqWWge8U4AEHHex-0cGyxtGOBpZeWG_YSb1W0GciMn6Y1iWsBaGdPrW4AJZLbf9b4/s320/05-mmpb-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622150928752578" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The only seasonal is ebooks in bar format:<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGBIV97mzo0mBOw0bZv9MjiNwKGd9feY5wwTutPNCGBHt_lUClhagUfWk2pMdXYvjdRgOJiv7QE_nfWJW4NFfb9G0nPZZarlT3DylTbZ0kESMFr8Oqg2RdG-A-sKiGzxAmszYRlwWv8Y/s1600/09-dollars.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVGBIV97mzo0mBOw0bZv9MjiNwKGd9feY5wwTutPNCGBHt_lUClhagUfWk2pMdXYvjdRgOJiv7QE_nfWJW4NFfb9G0nPZZarlT3DylTbZ0kESMFr8Oqg2RdG-A-sKiGzxAmszYRlwWv8Y/s320/09-dollars.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5670622091418711426" /></a>wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-9139808307144246282011-10-31T09:18:00.000-07:002011-10-31T09:36:08.641-07:00AAP Sales too obscured to chartDo I chart August sales that were <a href="http://www.yahoo.com">YTD sales are far less than the sum</a> of prior YTD reports?<br /><br />YTD hardcover sums to $930.4M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD sales through August of $641.7M. Ummm....<br /><br />YTD paperback sums to $772.5M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD of 772.5M. <br /><br />YTD MMP $380.4M (through July) vs. $310.4 through August. <br /><br />YTD Childrends $734.23 through July vs. a reported $638.4M through August.<br /><br />Ebooks: $638.4M through July vs. reported $649.2M through August.<br /><br />In other words, the downward revisions in sales mean August had massive negative sales for every category except ebooks. Ebooks would have puny sales... I suspect fewer vendors reported.<br /><br />I hope monthly book sales come out later. August sales would normally have come out now, but the AAP is delaying, hiding, and obscuring the data as much as possible. I suspect we'll see numbers later worth graphing. <br /><br />But when the sum of 8 months of sales is that much less than the sum of the previously reported 7 months of sales...<br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-35689731106401033972011-10-15T12:54:00.000-07:002011-10-15T14:45:58.569-07:00July 2011 E-book SalesJuly ebook figures are finally out. We can now see that the K3/Nook Color launch put a stake in the heart of Adult paperbacks. The K2 started that job with MMPB. What will the new Kindles do? We've been waiting for sub-$100 ereaders from a big name to accelerate ebook sales...<br /><br />Everyone has already told you ebooks continue to show good growth. Paper trade sales were weak, but not as weak as they were earlier in 2011. If I estimate children's sales, which weren't disclosed, trade sales were 84% of 2010. Much noise has been made of the Hardcover sales. They weren't bad. But if just some of August's hardcover sales were moved to July by 'stuffing the channel,' we could be seeing noise.<br /><br />Sources:<br /><A href="http://www.mediabistro.com/galleycat/adult-hardcover-sales-rose-33-in-july_b40116">YTD sales</A><br /><A href="http://www.mediabistro.com/ebooknewser/ebook-sales-up-in-july_b16702">July Sales</A><br /><br /><A href="http://davidgaughran.wordpress.com/2011/10/14/july-aap-figures-show-continuing-e-book-explosion/#comment-4879">David has already posted,</A> but I do the graphs. ;) <br /><br />Or could it be due to the big6 favoring Hardcover sales at the expense of everything else, including overall profit. I can only speculate on this. But look at it this way, two of my favorite sci-fi authors just released new books. <A href="http://www.amazon.com/1636-Saxon-Uprising-Ring-Fire/dp/1439134251/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1318709217&sr=8-1">Eric Flint's is only in Hardcover</A> and <A href="http://www.amazon.com/How-Firm-Foundation-Safehold-ebook/dp/B004V9O59I/ref=sr_1_1_title_1_ke?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1318709259&sr=1-1">David Weber is charging $12.99 for the ebook.</A> Oh well, I'll wait and buy other books that interest me.<br /><br />To the graphs!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt8n7sYn0XFymlkID8vwuJ1lloeYnVvwl86qd8VBV9CcoA-AzFz0dFg5VK9f651Y7hxjxt9hUgtYGtI1Dd1J85bDF6-2bWkCTJpHQoR6Y40OZVZmK8hsLx6nAFcpxXYe_2KzDykAITKXg/s1600/Picture1.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgt8n7sYn0XFymlkID8vwuJ1lloeYnVvwl86qd8VBV9CcoA-AzFz0dFg5VK9f651Y7hxjxt9hUgtYGtI1Dd1J85bDF6-2bWkCTJpHQoR6Y40OZVZmK8hsLx6nAFcpxXYe_2KzDykAITKXg/s320/Picture1.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663813525934034610" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Ebook sales remain at a pace faster than an extrapolation of the 2010 sales. I keep noting that that means we have not yet hit the point where ebooks are at half the market penetration they will achieve. Hold that thought for the next graph:<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ZRVzEC4G-baswl1shwxW5W5vtiLpCGJbXLwFftq1o6ONZfFavMV1a0yvUB2gZRMyByLczi3zGABNIxFbjmoZxRIEBka4Tetmj2RdG9Xw3Qx5VZ-yNIRGLbFbd5QIOhbeknSUC4ytjNw/s1600/Picture2-marketshare-tippingpoint.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9ZRVzEC4G-baswl1shwxW5W5vtiLpCGJbXLwFftq1o6ONZfFavMV1a0yvUB2gZRMyByLczi3zGABNIxFbjmoZxRIEBka4Tetmj2RdG9Xw3Qx5VZ-yNIRGLbFbd5QIOhbeknSUC4ytjNw/s320/Picture2-marketshare-tippingpoint.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663814077757782194" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Since e-books are less than half the market, approaching 29% with my estimate of Indie sales, we should expect ebooks sales to one day be over double today's market share. When we pass the mid-point, we'll see sales below the prior year's trend line (see the first chart). We are not there yet!<br /><br /><br />Print Trade is not doing well. It is below trend for July. Now, with my estimate of Children't books, it is at 84% of 2010. I suspect my estimate of Children's book sales will prove to be too optimistic. <br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4l4JeNI-2ykDMjh5iLN1k-9xm2MCRHRO5kMIBb-6YqpCCsn2W6C7qq5oeTQFoGEEeBST3e7sbtM1o1wHCapp7Pc6gPu6kTpaQ5oQ-rQS9ir9vFUv9M0FXKKTtPK3HPTnD_-a_m2jsngQ/s1600/Picture3-vstrade.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4l4JeNI-2ykDMjh5iLN1k-9xm2MCRHRO5kMIBb-6YqpCCsn2W6C7qq5oeTQFoGEEeBST3e7sbtM1o1wHCapp7Pc6gPu6kTpaQ5oQ-rQS9ir9vFUv9M0FXKKTtPK3HPTnD_-a_m2jsngQ/s320/Picture3-vstrade.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663822660488293378" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Am I the only one who sees a downward trend for MMPB? If one eyeballs a trendline since the K3/Nook Color launch, it looks like the end of MMPB will be in 2013. :( If one does the trendline from the K2 launch, the end of MMPB would be in 2014. MMPB was my prior favorite book form factor. The form factor has plummeted below viable economics. I suspect the espresso machines will fill the market for what MMPB customers who insist on paper.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMltmXlw_VUKjkX8mYUWerUYmpSm3KyOYOblK_jp0DWhxrvPayw5Xq7xRC2I_5AGgpR_txzliz4dVrYyiFMvOicFny9q-2pf2wxSGUjw8Zs2HuPH3YPWeZEEfRTVAWvMpl4fk_I_p4EH4/s1600/Picture4-vs.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMltmXlw_VUKjkX8mYUWerUYmpSm3KyOYOblK_jp0DWhxrvPayw5Xq7xRC2I_5AGgpR_txzliz4dVrYyiFMvOicFny9q-2pf2wxSGUjw8Zs2HuPH3YPWeZEEfRTVAWvMpl4fk_I_p4EH4/s320/Picture4-vs.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663823428732109842" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Hardcover books had a good month. Better than prior years trends. My question, is the channel getting stuffed? I hope I'm being a nay-sayer... So we'll have to wait and see.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilk1KGMJ2l1pgB0Ob3vUeqRV5_yIC7j27-UTCDdJgS65plYCjM70Gnvl_el7DADu8XLx_pPp1WJstLyRStLyChT2bG8jjHPY5-OO43t8gQF4rbCVoEUqVaydhv7B7QwCmXuq6pexmAHCQ/s1600/Picture5-vs-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilk1KGMJ2l1pgB0Ob3vUeqRV5_yIC7j27-UTCDdJgS65plYCjM70Gnvl_el7DADu8XLx_pPp1WJstLyRStLyChT2bG8jjHPY5-OO43t8gQF4rbCVoEUqVaydhv7B7QwCmXuq6pexmAHCQ/s320/Picture5-vs-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663824970380000034" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Paperback is weak too. Again, I see a trendline. From the K3's/Nook Color's launch, Paperback's have been on a declining trend. Again, a trend that shows an end to the form factor in 2013. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOp0NCEh0R7UYjkNOkQ6lolQbGNseLp87_olbIYoPsdX4JWd0cwh7Zl2gMhcenumQWFQucsg58n2WhfiMxfQ5VmpmZoHQx48nQCjMInLkJKcGxpZGWqxEiR6qJ-zlDDTM672jH8iqG9NU/s1600/Picture6-vs-paperback.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiOp0NCEh0R7UYjkNOkQ6lolQbGNseLp87_olbIYoPsdX4JWd0cwh7Zl2gMhcenumQWFQucsg58n2WhfiMxfQ5VmpmZoHQx48nQCjMInLkJKcGxpZGWqxEiR6qJ-zlDDTM672jH8iqG9NU/s320/Picture6-vs-paperback.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663825832186061218" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />There is no data on Children's books for this month. Since Childrens books have been trending at 77% of 2010 sales, I took that number. My rational is that if the numbers were any better, we would have heard them. I suspect the Sales of children's books could have been worse. :( <br /><br /><A href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXV-yaFmQNk">I assume you've seen the Youtube</A> of the 1 year old who doesn't get magazines. My two very young daughters love touchscreen. Their Grandma is now buying them electronic book gift cards instead of print books. Good, bad, or indifferent, that is where the market will go. I've seen it with Mom's with the Nook and the iPad and the Kindle Fire will kick that trend into high gear. <br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG9UPa15r9v5FvAAhQVvo7FqEYfHau4bHv7WN94DL0pfAO1h6W-U0zbrPLqjk9-mESIrdbU5NpD5HUUFklMjtTSd9GNNY7quZspmxGwNlkT5VK66Q5_D25lN7zf7OXd3mBAKorrIhpllg/s1600/Picture7-vs-childrens.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiG9UPa15r9v5FvAAhQVvo7FqEYfHau4bHv7WN94DL0pfAO1h6W-U0zbrPLqjk9-mESIrdbU5NpD5HUUFklMjtTSd9GNNY7quZspmxGwNlkT5VK66Q5_D25lN7zf7OXd3mBAKorrIhpllg/s320/Picture7-vs-childrens.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663827186738385986" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b> Seasonal Graphs </b><br /><br />I do different graphs to show the trends in different ways. The bar chart shows ebook growth was spectacular in July, just not as spectacular as prior months in 2011. I read discussions of a 'lull' this summer in ebook blog comment sections. I suspect August numbers will reflect the same trend.<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gP39dSZHqhRrPCiUFKu7dPDmpsPok_DD6rwPS8lHSxRSiLk6fYGkSW0SDRu9tXN9wz9SCDuc8RMaoA41RXoXzIwjmw2K0EF-lhskNQCgUtEao-4v3QsqPjhaGFoT9k_X-1ZeH3Pyhnk/s1600/Picture8-bar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-gP39dSZHqhRrPCiUFKu7dPDmpsPok_DD6rwPS8lHSxRSiLk6fYGkSW0SDRu9tXN9wz9SCDuc8RMaoA41RXoXzIwjmw2K0EF-lhskNQCgUtEao-4v3QsqPjhaGFoT9k_X-1ZeH3Pyhnk/s320/Picture8-bar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663830764765507266" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The seasonal graph for Hardcovers in July helps show that July was a great July for Hardcovers, but it is September through December where the money is made. Let's see how hardcovers do during the ramp up to holiday shopping:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX1q7-_5S4EBSIzOJYwLPGtx94GjCYf5B3FJj1ujJuZ-QmkKEs5uc_vaV_3WXjFwBZwebK3jlXMqbUoSI9BhLObmzKD5HilQWwyBS7L40zWOYVZctN-GzQGY8Dq42rQtGW6zH9MqC2BY0/s1600/Picture9-seasonal-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiX1q7-_5S4EBSIzOJYwLPGtx94GjCYf5B3FJj1ujJuZ-QmkKEs5uc_vaV_3WXjFwBZwebK3jlXMqbUoSI9BhLObmzKD5HilQWwyBS7L40zWOYVZctN-GzQGY8Dq42rQtGW6zH9MqC2BY0/s320/Picture9-seasonal-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663831433266651714" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />The seasonal graph on paperbacks shows more of what I was discussing earlier: The K3 stared this form factor's slow death. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDCbdAHhxT2HMBSSA9Do8Z427Hc3Zob8fQtgr7bgLntsnLS4TbI6boQkW7JuqD4bxNGqJ6e0UzQxQPUAVMFWnP3wGTvLGXMPpra88KzOAqqJ14-uthHVFESweRMq-uXIfdgsG7cP-CxKY/s1600/Picture10-paperback-seasonal.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDCbdAHhxT2HMBSSA9Do8Z427Hc3Zob8fQtgr7bgLntsnLS4TbI6boQkW7JuqD4bxNGqJ6e0UzQxQPUAVMFWnP3wGTvLGXMPpra88KzOAqqJ14-uthHVFESweRMq-uXIfdgsG7cP-CxKY/s320/Picture10-paperback-seasonal.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663831841769115730" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />MMPB has been on a downward trend since the K2 launch. The K3/Nook Color launch accelerated that trend. Anyone want to bet against the K4/Kindle Fire/Nook Color 2/iPad2/Android tablet assault? <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDtb_Qlfa1XajuoPiAn1kXRyZWFJh2Jduq_N5qrrZ6-ptUp3KRqqQyPzPqRYIXjwemdgHYET_3XzODCIPNiWY2fHcm2idt1eU3SPWKSS-CsgT72AD1qLRcYrqnKnQr2sHCSfbTerSqjjM/s1600/Picture11-mmpb-seasonal.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDtb_Qlfa1XajuoPiAn1kXRyZWFJh2Jduq_N5qrrZ6-ptUp3KRqqQyPzPqRYIXjwemdgHYET_3XzODCIPNiWY2fHcm2idt1eU3SPWKSS-CsgT72AD1qLRcYrqnKnQr2sHCSfbTerSqjjM/s320/Picture11-mmpb-seasonal.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663832557020228466" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I had to estimate Children's sales for July. The trend for 2011 is 77% of 2010. If that was the July sales, we could have our next category breaking down. If Children's sales are going down, I wouldn't look at the prior B&W Kindles. As I noted, kids today expect touchscreen. Between the Kindle Fire/Nook Color (2?)/Android tablets and a horde of smartphones, I'm betting on touchscreen for 2012.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhitieOZselEJGXz0ByNE4AsVX-VljPJvWcG6a7h8TJEukS2VItOq9zLgvhx-H6lV-Qm1ixp8XBIhu28BXnI4NieD9XmKe68A1G36BqEhQjL8jibLEZ4QzgSBn7b6RByv8SWrCZUZncS9o/s1600/Picture12-childrens-seasonal.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhitieOZselEJGXz0ByNE4AsVX-VljPJvWcG6a7h8TJEukS2VItOq9zLgvhx-H6lV-Qm1ixp8XBIhu28BXnI4NieD9XmKe68A1G36BqEhQjL8jibLEZ4QzgSBn7b6RByv8SWrCZUZncS9o/s320/Picture12-childrens-seasonal.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663833037810878530" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I save the ebook seasonal graph for last as... ebook sales are only seasonal in two ways. First, the 2nd half sales see a jump. Usually that jump is in July, but could the excellent weather have delayed the spike up? The other 'seasonality' is that there is also a beginning of the year spike as those Christmas ereaders are loaded up. :) Otherwise, note the nice year on year growth the last few years?<br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8mrkukviIMlUMBM7ZkQXqeqei9XrTCHCyCacSzEKdLSAZZag-sSc9jTis9K_Rx02M0gsVKynM7rgHE9ZRrdB5IuKU_ZYp0LKUimVz0gJhPbedKl5usdw0UCUSTwQ4XY5FD-a2-ph_7aw/s1600/Picture13-ebook-seasonal.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8mrkukviIMlUMBM7ZkQXqeqei9XrTCHCyCacSzEKdLSAZZag-sSc9jTis9K_Rx02M0gsVKynM7rgHE9ZRrdB5IuKU_ZYp0LKUimVz0gJhPbedKl5usdw0UCUSTwQ4XY5FD-a2-ph_7aw/s320/Picture13-ebook-seasonal.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663835608995225714" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b> Predictions and comparison vs. Prior years </b><br /><br />I introduced the last chart just over a month ago. I show:<br />1. Nominal sales from prior years (pre-2010)<br />2. 2010 sales for that category<br />3. How the sales should be following the 2011 YTD trend tweaked to be a prediction (oops, I shouldn't have tweaked children's expected sales). <br />4. Actual sales.<br /><br />Overall trade was weak, but not as bad as it was. The big boost was Hardcover, which is doing better than pre-Kindle trends! MMPB and adult paperback are in an rapid decline with paperback's decline possibly accelerating. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw3DdCLZci8ebKyX6T3PnFoEANF6fckVREFocAVl4XUI-qwWfSNHXP0nhqUBj-MJWjkdfBe2zlUvmB-HR6RvVORYkLfD33ng13V_LLIPLuuTJB4FY6IgWCtNcQxA9ZDgYsyLdI6Ket-T0/s1600/Picture14-newest-bar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw3DdCLZci8ebKyX6T3PnFoEANF6fckVREFocAVl4XUI-qwWfSNHXP0nhqUBj-MJWjkdfBe2zlUvmB-HR6RvVORYkLfD33ng13V_LLIPLuuTJB4FY6IgWCtNcQxA9ZDgYsyLdI6Ket-T0/s320/Picture14-newest-bar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5663836229125033730" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Each succeeding generation of ereaders is taking down one more category of books. The K2/Nook/Sony ereaders/Kobo started the MMPB decline. The K3/Nook Color initiated the drop in adult paperbacks. I suspect we're about to see touchscreens hitting children's sales. That leaves the question, will hardcover somehow survive the onslaught of the K4/Nook color 2/iPad2? I suspect that in 7 or 8 months, we'll have the data to say hardcover sales went digital with the emerging generation of ereaders and tablets. <br /><br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-80879243728529451012011-10-13T17:52:00.000-07:002011-10-13T17:59:56.843-07:00K4 Cost less than $113 to make<A href="http://blogkindle.com/2011/10/kindle-4-cost-breakdown/">Kindle Blog</A> has done an estimate of the parts in the new K4. I'll let you read the link for details.<br /><br /><br />But the blog is conservative. I see, of the $113 cost:<br />Amazon should be getting a 40% to 60% discount on the screens. Let's round that to a savings of $18 less than estimated.<br /><br />$13 for a CPU is a *much* higher end CPU in volume than an ARM A8. For $13, Amazon should be getting a 1.0 to 1.2 Ghz A9. A further $5 in savings (or so) in high volume.<br /><br />Many of the other chips are overpriced by a bit here and there. Recall, Amazon is buying in multi-million unit quantities. They do not pay list nor fleet price. The vendors negotiate far lower pricing. I estimate another $8 in savings.<br /><br />Or $113 - $18 - $5 -$8 = $82<br /><br />For something that sells for $109 (sans special offers), I suspect Amazon is making a small profit out the door.<br /><br />Oh, e-ink pricing will drop. Now that there is the 'Kindle Fire,' e-ink knows they must be competitive or Amazon will make the tablet cheap enough to start displacing e-ink sales.<br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-47768004429073725592011-10-02T09:10:00.001-07:002011-10-02T09:40:02.200-07:00Bad Kindle Fire Cost EstimatesI have a small number of friends who are executives who negotiate for big contracts. They've always been able to beat analyst expectations when negotiating in high volumes.<br /><br />I'e seen some ridiculous cost estimates of the Kindle fire that use the cost when buying chips and other parts in thousand unit quantities. At those quantities, one calls a clerk and has a fixed price. For the Kindle fire, it is an estimated 4 million units in 2011. I'm sure for large minimum order quantities and a six+ month production run, Amazon is paying less. Far less. <br /><br />The trick is: <br />1. Buy vendors (e.g., Amazon bought their touchscreen chip vendor, Apple with their CPUs)<br />2. Bid three or more vendors against each other (Amazon did this with LCDs and CPUs bidding Qualcomm, Nvidia, and the winner TI against each other for a huge order). <br />3. Do not rush the bidding (no evidence of this on Amazon's part). The vendors need to go to their sub-vendors to find unit price reductions for volume guarantees. For example, in chip testing.<br />4. Listen to vendor suggestions for alternate design ideas. I'm certain Quandra removed cost from the blackberry playbook and was willing to 'give' the design to Amazon in return for volume guarantees. I doubt this was Amazon's going in position.<br /><br /><A href="http://androidcommunity.com/amazon-kindle-fire-manufacturing-cost-209-63-20110930/">Analysis where the Kindle fire costs a little more that $199 to build.</A><br /> <br /><br /><A href="http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4228505/Kindle-Fire-profitable-at-estimated--150-BoM">More believable $150 BOM for Kindle fire.</A><br />The above analysis breaks down the costs . My only real complaint is Amazon wouldn't pay $19 per processor (CPU). Rumors are Amazon is paying TI far closer to $10. That alone would make the Kindle Fire a profit maker. I've also heard Amazon negotiated at just the right time for the screens and is paying less for them. True or not, Amazon is the first Apple competitor to be able to jump in and guarantee multi-million unit volumes. Amazon probably paid upfront the setup costs, so the more they sell, the more profit. :)<br /><br /><br />The above doesn't include all the costs of building/selling a Kindle fire. It is probably $30 to $40 short of the full cost. So do not think Amazon is making $49 profit per Kindle Fire. It is probably in the $1 to $10 range in 2011 (better in 2012 as post holidays chip and other costs drop). <br /><br />My best estimate is the Kindle Fire goes out the door at a tiny profit. I just cannot believe the high component costs quoted for Amazon when they are bidding on multi-million unit quantities. It isn't that Amazon isn't spending and losing money somewhere (e.g., India fullfilment centers). I just do not see the huge 'loss leaders' for the new Kindles some articles are claiming. Not in the volumes Amazon in buying in.<br /><br />Lightsaberwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-81367698157896014642011-10-01T21:05:00.000-07:002011-10-01T21:21:49.093-07:002.7 Kindles 2Q2011, Estimated over 25 million in 2011<i>Amazon sold about 2.7m of its Kindle e-readers in the second quarter as it took 51.7% of the e-reader market, IDC says. The second-larger share was taken by Barnes & Noble's reader, with 21.2%, in a market totalling 5.4m units in total for the quarter.</i><br /><br /> <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2011/sep/15/ipad-tablet-market-2011-forecast">Source Gaurdian</a><br /><br />Now let's talk other ereader numbers:<br /><br /> <a href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110930PD208.html">Digitimes has more information</a><br /><br />6.9 million Kindles in 2010<br /><br />Total 6.0 million Kindles in the 1st half of 2011 (not surprising, ereaders sell better in the 1st quarter than the 2nd quarter).<br /><br />Expecting sales of 15 million 'new Kindles' and 'Kindle touch' (in 2011)<br />Plus some undisclosed number of K3s/'Kindle Keyboard' in the 2nd half of 2011.<br />And 4 million 'Kindle Fire'<br /><br />Or: 25+ million Kindles in 2011 versus 6.9 million in 2010.<br /> <br />Look at that seasonality... 19 million in the 4th quarter versus 6 million in the first half of the year. Plus a few million more K3s sold in the 3rd quarter. :) <br /><br />Amazon has laid down their cards. The competition must react.<br /><br />Late edit:<br /> <a href="http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS23034011">IDC raised the ereader estimate</a> from a mere 16.2 million units to 27 million. They're also going to count the 'Kindle Fire' as ereaders and not tablets. If they're doing that, I expect ereader sales to easily beat their expectations. Then again, they only expected ereaders under $100, not all the way down at $79. (I still am amazed how aggressive Amazon is being.) <br /><br />If my previous post's prediction of new Kindles selling half as many books per Kindle as older Kindles holds true, we'll still see an explosion in ebook sales. I'm very much looking forward to seeing what indie author sales do after November 16th (new Kindle shipping date).<br /><br />Got Popcorn,<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-62848550879172092922011-09-29T18:42:00.000-07:002011-09-29T18:59:48.931-07:00Prediction: Fewer ebooks per Kindle for lower cost Kindles<A href="http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/09/99-ereaders.html">$99 ereaders are here</A> and they will push ereaders into new markets. Unfortunately, many of those new Kindles sold will not sell as many books per Kindle.<br /><br />Why? Many of the early adopters of the Kindle read over a hundred books per year. <br /><br />I know of one individual who is buying 'extra Kindles' to avoid the inconvenience of forgetting to pack a Kindle for travel or even walk across the house! That will increase the reading a little (in particular not forgetting the Kindle on a six-week trip...), but only incrementally.<br /><br />I know of several families who either made their kids share a Kindle or wouldn't risk giving a $139 device to that young of a child who will be buying a new lower cost Kindle. This will increase reading, but not as many books per year as when the family shared a Kindle.<br /><br />Multiple coworkers 'jumped off the fence' and have already ordered a Kindle. Something about the 'below $100 price point.' None of these coworkers read more than thirty books per year.<br /><br />I know of a few grandmothers who will buy grandkids Kindles. Some of those grandkids are voracious readers (that is good...). Some of the grandkids will say a polite 'thank you' and never buy more than one or two books for the Kindle. :( <br /><br />I also know of a few parents (mostly the moms) who still eread on smartphones or a laptop. In general, those that didn't buy a Kindle or Nook in the past were those that read less than twenty books per year. More than a few will buy a Kindle (or Nook, if the price drops enough) this holiday season for themselves (or buy it for the hubby to put under the tree). ;) <br /><br />Most of the potential Kindle customers seem undecided between the $79 Kindle, $99 touch Kindle, and $99 Keyboard Kindle. Or even splurging on the $199 Fire... Amazon gave customers too much choice! Perhaps the mid-November ship date is having customers wait to decide? However, birthdays and the holidays put a forcing function on the buying decision. I would be surprised if some of the Kindles didn't sell out and force the selection decision.<br /><br />I estimate that these lower cost Kindles might sell as few as half the ebooks per Kindle as the earlier Kindle sales. The lower price points are reaching out to less intense readers. However, that is a good thing; it still expands the customer base. I hope low cost ereader sales will turn some 'moderate readers' back into 'intense ereaders.' e-readership is known for 'convenience reading' which increases the quantity of books sold. :) <br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-58757418396339140052011-09-29T18:13:00.000-07:002011-09-29T18:26:21.997-07:00Why the talk of Vinyl and Paper books?<A href="http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/vinyl-sales-increase-despite-industry-slump-20110106">Vinyl made a comeback with 2.8 million albums in 2010</A><br /><br /><A href="http://money.cnn.com/2010/02/02/news/companies/napster_music_industry/">Music's lost decade</A> has been brutal. $14.6 billion a year in sales down to $6.3 Billion in 2009 and the above link says sales declined 2.4% or to about %6.1 Billion in 2010.<br /><br />Why is this held up as a model for print? I fully expect print to survive. However, the librarians I know are being inundated with books handed over from the Boarders bankruptcy. <br /><br />Now ebooks are different than music. Napster dominated music as there was no usable and legitimate way to load mp3s until 2003 and the iTunes store opened. Read the link, music is still dominated by piracy. eBooks are being led by legitimate outlets. <br /><br />I expect print to remain a good fraction of the book market. Perhaps 20% of the revenue. How much is Vinyl? Assuming $25 per record, I calculate Vinyl is 1.15% of the music market. I probably overestimate the price per album... So let's be generous to Vinyl and call it one percent.<br /> <br />Why so much noise over about one percent of the market! I'd be happy if print were to survive at 20% to 30% of the market. I fervently hope print does better than a lonely one percent. <br /><br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-46025682606424165652011-09-28T21:33:00.000-07:002011-09-28T21:49:32.539-07:00$99 EreadersAmazon just dropped the knife on ereader prices via the 'with offers' (add supported Kindles). <br /><br /> <A href="http://www.amazon.com/Kindle-Wi-Fi-Ink-Display-Screensavers/dp/B0051QVESA/ref=amb_link_357575542_5?pf_rd_m=ATVPDKIKX0DER&pf_rd_s=gateway-center-column&pf_rd_r=0Q9MZFKNG255NQJTB90M&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=1321408942&pf_rd_i=507846">Thre Kindles $99 and under.</A><br /><br />The new $79 Kindle<br />The new $99 Kindle touch<br />The renamed $99 Kindle Keyboard (ex-K3 with Special offers)<br /><br /><br /> <A href="http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/entertainment-media/pdf/eBooks-Trends-Developments.pdf">Figure 11 </A> shows how many people would, by an older survey, buy ereaders at each price point. I'm going to sum the numbers:<br /><br />Above $400 1% of the market<br />Above $300 4% of the market (3% of $300 plus the sum of the higher price points)<br />Above $200 15% of the market (again, summing the price points)<br />Above $100 46% of the market will consider an ereader.<br /><br />Now that we're $79 to $99, 79% of the buying base of ereaders will consider an ereaer. Just by lowering the price of the ereader, the ebook market should grow 71%!<br /><br />But wait... we still had 'resistance' to ereaders who are 'giving in' and buying an ereader. This is readers 'pulled' to ereaders.<br /><br />The Boarders BK will 'push' further readers to ereaders.<br /><br />2012 will have tremendous growth in ebook sales. The last price point of resistance is to get below $50. Amazon has a goal for next Christmas. ;) <br /><br />Neil<br /><br />Ps (Late edit)<br />I noticed the new 'Kindle' and 'Kindle Touch' are lighter than the 'Kindle Keyboard' (renamed-K3 w/special offers). I'm still using my K2 and found the lighter weight of the 'Kindle Keyboard' one of its best features.wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-90970453207722673292011-09-26T10:41:00.000-07:002011-09-26T12:40:48.034-07:0025 to 30 million e-ink ereaders in 2011<A href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110926PD202.html">E-ink is reporting</A> that they'll meet projections for ereaders in 2011.<br /><br />I found this bit interesting:<br /><i>But global shipments of e-book readers experienced a seasonal dip in the second-quarter, according to IDC. Shipments reached nearly six million units in first-quarter 2011, but shipments in the second quarter totaled 5.4 million units, up 167% on-year but down 9.2% on-quarter.<br /><br />Amazon Kindle's market share slid to 51.7% in the second-quarter from about 53% in the first, while Barnes & Noble's Nook dropped to 21.2% from about 23%, according to IDC.</i><br /><br />Amazon is barely holding onto half the market. Since they are the most 'indie-friendly' ebookstore, that is bad on one hand... on the other, it is good not to have a market dominance.<br /><br />I blogged before <A href="http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/08/dont-count-on-keeping-lead.html">don't count on keeping the market lead.</A> For example, <A href="http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=29195">For the last 3 months </A> in the US Android cell phones have outsold iPhones two to one. I'm surprised to see B&N and Kindle both lost market share. I'm wondering who gained? (Google? Apple? With Boarders going kaput, I doubt it was Kobo and Microsoft dropped their initiative.) <br /><br />Got Popcorn?<br />Neil<br /><br />Ps<br />This doesn't include tablets.<br /><br />The above sales figures show that ereaders sell ok in the 1st and 2nd quarters but are really a back to school and holiday phenomenon. 1H2011 11.4Million out of 25 to 30 million (e-ink). I suspect we'll see another 5 million LCD ereaders in 2011. So the 2nd half of the year is about 2/3rds of the sales. Hence why Amazon is waiting on their new ereaders, tablet, and B&N the rumored new Nook tablet right before the holidays. <br /><br />I'm big into cell phones as 'convenience readers.' We recently returned from a cruise and for every reader on a Kindle, I saw one on a smartphone, one on a tablet (almost all iPads, a few Samsungs, but not many), and three to five playing games on their cellphones or tablets. :( And for each Kindle reader two reading pbooks. :) Mind you, it was a Disney cruise, so lots of waiting in line. ;) <br /><br />So only somewhat related, Microsoft's phone strategy baffles me. <A href="http://morldtechgossips.blogspot.com/2011/09/nokia-windows-phone-7-will-be-out-in.html">February is too late for Nokia.</A> B&N showed how it should be done. The nook color October 2010, Nook simple-touch in<br /><br />updated 12:40pmwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-70328300760033815052011-09-09T21:37:00.001-07:002011-09-11T14:35:16.769-07:00June 2011 Ebook salesJune was not a pretty month for print sales. I've read before that Borders represented close to half of paperback sales and judging from the cliff-fall in Adult paperback, that was indeed the case. Total print trade sales are down $120 million per month from the prior year trend. With AAP ebook sales only at $80 million, we're talking about an 11% drop in gross revenues for June.<br /><br />Now, I expect this is hit of the Borders failure and shutdown. The question is, will there be a rebound after the Borders inventory has been liquidated? <br /><br />I did expect Ebook sales to be slightly better in June. If Ebook sales had truly followed the 2011 growth curve, they would have been $83 million versus $80 million. Is that significant? Since more than a few indie authors report a drought and blamed the 'Sunshine Deals,' which favored AAP publishers, I suspect the real reason was we finally broke the crappy winter weather and people went out and played. Then again, growth has been so tremendous in 2011, we can take a breather.<br /><br />But you come here for the charts, so here they are.<br /><br />Overall, ebook growth is still faster than the 2010 growth trend by quite the margin!<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ARfcMLzIvNz8sn_PcjZFjBod-D9ll805-X1HzNoK7nAE5-JYm3jvgE_JcXTxXcHyNm41HlIrgD5XMFCCN78wJCnKbYo4dAoGKbvaipbDi1b7-PrYmMxfiDN_1GoIU1ExH_7_vuN7Dfo/s1600/01-ebook-dollar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0ARfcMLzIvNz8sn_PcjZFjBod-D9ll805-X1HzNoK7nAE5-JYm3jvgE_JcXTxXcHyNm41HlIrgD5XMFCCN78wJCnKbYo4dAoGKbvaipbDi1b7-PrYmMxfiDN_1GoIU1ExH_7_vuN7Dfo/s320/01-ebook-dollar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650586969352860018" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I'm resurrecting an old chart format. This is by year ebook sales with 'events' that I believe helped shape AAP ebook sales. I'm rather surprised that the 'Sunshine Deals' didn't spike up sales further. <br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYpmbBps7kl-xXVtrfr_z530tajtyS6v0AOn7knrCgtmaBHCOb7fxDbxttJVyF_e9WBAZ_OMxQzdYBPC2KAUk0tPTGDEub5koOOqWWljo97Dr7jhDSwOhLfLJ16qoBBbya6TtGQrXUYZI/s1600/02-old-format-ebook-sales-dollar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYpmbBps7kl-xXVtrfr_z530tajtyS6v0AOn7knrCgtmaBHCOb7fxDbxttJVyF_e9WBAZ_OMxQzdYBPC2KAUk0tPTGDEub5koOOqWWljo97Dr7jhDSwOhLfLJ16qoBBbya6TtGQrXUYZI/s320/02-old-format-ebook-sales-dollar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650587451616612226" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I've noted before that ebooks jump in market share at the start of the year. We seem to be holding to the pattern but a different month to month variation over prior years:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7kBYp12S7dcTzeTyN5BuKFSpfpCyCeUB0Vgb62F7L8FVv1gO7qmpNRUS3LpMWCESEoh9dKHSHCMcofMkZtynWNuOhqQNxr3q_STDd91LriAu194Kba_YfIHw9pe9OF2Uv8xjpVCLhAPY/s1600/03-market-share.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7kBYp12S7dcTzeTyN5BuKFSpfpCyCeUB0Vgb62F7L8FVv1gO7qmpNRUS3LpMWCESEoh9dKHSHCMcofMkZtynWNuOhqQNxr3q_STDd91LriAu194Kba_YfIHw9pe9OF2Uv8xjpVCLhAPY/s320/03-market-share.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650589779694971234" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Edit: I had bad links in the excel sheet on this chart. Mea culpa and corrected 2:30pm 9/11/2011<br />I've started a new chart: A comparison of how that month's sales did versus the nominal for the last few years, 2010, and a trend. Print books are slowing quickly. 80% of the prior year's sales except for kids books which are doing much better. Ebooks have fast growth and while I commented about June, graphically it looks like it is just maintaining 2011 growth with a little noise. Edit: Don't get excited about MMPB doing a little better than prediction; my once favorite format is in decline. June is MMPB's 'month to shine.' So it did better than falling off a cliff, but not by much. :( <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIjHDsAqJ28hJtFOddn1u9jtKGCAP01_ekBA0yU7hwzbNeWHcwGLxwnqxMaJ59GkDXHxIeW_c-dFQIYbhEo4ZP5SPiKrnx2y4RM2iiYaW_OHshaS2odfLAvdgU4PTcY1kEd18-YDB73z8/s1600/04-Trend.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIjHDsAqJ28hJtFOddn1u9jtKGCAP01_ekBA0yU7hwzbNeWHcwGLxwnqxMaJ59GkDXHxIeW_c-dFQIYbhEo4ZP5SPiKrnx2y4RM2iiYaW_OHshaS2odfLAvdgU4PTcY1kEd18-YDB73z8/s320/04-Trend.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5651217925708239586" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Trade print was very weak. Adult paperback and MMPB and thrashing print sales. More on that later.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigUhQjJsBAxBcAmEie2HYvSHrThg0-xd1jY3Zg34VIcESPeBgcyHKRxGRihHVajl3O7n3z3cKIoeoZOV84jgVRRQJPzYfjPgM-hPMBwnXsLeDb-N9agQJW5efbKGzI0X6W7y9TebeMkEA/s1600/05-trade.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigUhQjJsBAxBcAmEie2HYvSHrThg0-xd1jY3Zg34VIcESPeBgcyHKRxGRihHVajl3O7n3z3cKIoeoZOV84jgVRRQJPzYfjPgM-hPMBwnXsLeDb-N9agQJW5efbKGzI0X6W7y9TebeMkEA/s320/05-trade.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650591698695973858" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Adult hardcover was OK. The weak side of OK, but ok.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhGLzv-FQ1QFMuWaxRUgQWOyv_P0v1AQR7BdRq-0W57bvtzszA0Mdw6m-P_KsdQsiUlEzWYSaj5rKXXoeuUIu1Ag36FU4thkV4UfzdKy-wPiUPszVrnJPu3RZXctB3WOT4Q0BtEtkovwc/s1600/05-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhGLzv-FQ1QFMuWaxRUgQWOyv_P0v1AQR7BdRq-0W57bvtzszA0Mdw6m-P_KsdQsiUlEzWYSaj5rKXXoeuUIu1Ag36FU4thkV4UfzdKy-wPiUPszVrnJPu3RZXctB3WOT4Q0BtEtkovwc/s320/05-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650591011588166642" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Adult paperback fell off a cliff. Nothing seasonal about this drop. It is the changes in the industry that are happening. The question is, will any other bookstore step into Borders space of selling high volumes of paperbacks? <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJawoOt1Jq8gc6liuzpIaLTo4As0CTRcrT7THhDfdktVG2ZTyLNzili4h0dgtkduaPf8ZAnu7f9p4WYs81WbHshjeHIaCJOhPi5xh8arjRTBHwOSJdyHDbyCVEsRMBGTNjzPGfak3D9E/s1600/05-paperback-cliff.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhHJawoOt1Jq8gc6liuzpIaLTo4As0CTRcrT7THhDfdktVG2ZTyLNzili4h0dgtkduaPf8ZAnu7f9p4WYs81WbHshjeHIaCJOhPi5xh8arjRTBHwOSJdyHDbyCVEsRMBGTNjzPGfak3D9E/s320/05-paperback-cliff.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650592276598347634" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />My pre-ebook favorite form factor was MMPB. MMPB is on life support. It cannot survive at these low sales. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivnPFRKp-AWaCqirLbGWQ7ut9Z395i-q3jcjxXbOrDd8bgjfe0iX_tElUqUh36_o4GJ2X3M-cCeak5pJGXaXpf1WSvKDmvnJGkdurKb6OereZx_rN-GkJYDJ1ZP1q-XKrFiYdxNaInxgE/s1600/05-mmpb.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivnPFRKp-AWaCqirLbGWQ7ut9Z395i-q3jcjxXbOrDd8bgjfe0iX_tElUqUh36_o4GJ2X3M-cCeak5pJGXaXpf1WSvKDmvnJGkdurKb6OereZx_rN-GkJYDJ1ZP1q-XKrFiYdxNaInxgE/s320/05-mmpb.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650592694713721666" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />It makes me happy to see how well kids books are doing. :) <br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSE8LVjlS2eECH1sdkiIsl8HjR46N98GvDfdFbGD3k5Ix2fPwjeBIYPkWQS4dFKVeHK-TYvqg442vADp3l5KlJsQQBRSoxWI0xNCLzbk5Ndt7GMl0DL3pYA5qBVZsi51q5RwgoFlPj7c4/s1600/06-childrens.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgSE8LVjlS2eECH1sdkiIsl8HjR46N98GvDfdFbGD3k5Ix2fPwjeBIYPkWQS4dFKVeHK-TYvqg442vADp3l5KlJsQQBRSoxWI0xNCLzbk5Ndt7GMl0DL3pYA5qBVZsi51q5RwgoFlPj7c4/s320/06-childrens.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650593003436286338" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><b><br />Seasonal Charts:</b><br /><br /><br />I like the bar chart to emphasize how strong, versus prior years, ebooks are doing. :) <br /><br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1q_PyDzJYOGyfOEHqxQbBB04rdZk7qXTr02MkkrTt8dErZOV1XQDp2usVvLXcKLN-KdXNus-FLh_E3jIQ1CIMhM3uA6E8fr4j3iDXoO_csTgmkkwLdnraHzOZkIQe1RtAERGb0HaBhpw/s1600/06-bar.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1q_PyDzJYOGyfOEHqxQbBB04rdZk7qXTr02MkkrTt8dErZOV1XQDp2usVvLXcKLN-KdXNus-FLh_E3jIQ1CIMhM3uA6E8fr4j3iDXoO_csTgmkkwLdnraHzOZkIQe1RtAERGb0HaBhpw/s320/06-bar.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650593281308856866" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I'll go out of order in the seasonal charts and show just how nicely childrens books are selling. :) <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7W6Bm0L8smFmv5e0q7T71Zdc31sU683XNrrY0_4YD9fkKu5ejYN34O5D2csoaibsuFvp1XJ8Z7xx8n4gCeIyR063tEKTXpSlz4_R4MZBLzE75lA-GmB21IE4AQd73xEl9-RsZvuPy0iE/s1600/06-childrens.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7W6Bm0L8smFmv5e0q7T71Zdc31sU683XNrrY0_4YD9fkKu5ejYN34O5D2csoaibsuFvp1XJ8Z7xx8n4gCeIyR063tEKTXpSlz4_R4MZBLzE75lA-GmB21IE4AQd73xEl9-RsZvuPy0iE/s320/06-childrens.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650593602076809874" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Again, hardcover is OK, but weak:<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJL4JNMhOlNlNkDr_GaFyKPgc0JfCHT_dqGjzhJva75dMB_aXmcxYswzrn3RlYst88HGtsZFqoCHvhoETupegvU6toDM0DpHsVDcskGN5MW3p71vBn72mJzPYXdElQ86-Tn-3dhhcD79E/s1600/06-hardcover.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJL4JNMhOlNlNkDr_GaFyKPgc0JfCHT_dqGjzhJva75dMB_aXmcxYswzrn3RlYst88HGtsZFqoCHvhoETupegvU6toDM0DpHsVDcskGN5MW3p71vBn72mJzPYXdElQ86-Tn-3dhhcD79E/s320/06-hardcover.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650593935167693890" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />One didn't have to plot a seasonal chart to see that paperback books fell off a cliff. <br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRt2wgDvxdjp6123bCqV9JyXmlraHGXcl0Nd3hRqib9cz9ODV4Rry1sCAhbnQ2O1-xT2s_4MezHHalo73EKOidQFRrcY_qS6rPx9uJx9pEVqSKFK86zU7PB8yqVms3KaGS4-ipRJc1B4/s1600/06-paper-cliff.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiIRt2wgDvxdjp6123bCqV9JyXmlraHGXcl0Nd3hRqib9cz9ODV4Rry1sCAhbnQ2O1-xT2s_4MezHHalo73EKOidQFRrcY_qS6rPx9uJx9pEVqSKFK86zU7PB8yqVms3KaGS4-ipRJc1B4/s320/06-paper-cliff.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650595798754995906" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />I usually comment on how poorly MMPB is doing, but adult paperback made this category look 'better than usual.' But MMPB is weak and is pulling down trade print sales.<br /><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-L6CUU_WnsyDCL5CxScyg2GlYlEPXJifXHdJw1ahDIXKfIFhvNhTgBbLRFJtn0v6U27XE9aQ0IEmKtCJtQLVl9e6c5RG_O9pJy3xGMMEBkUIHeWQyeNahkc1GypWo2wTp7zehAI7BNiI/s1600/06-mmpb.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-L6CUU_WnsyDCL5CxScyg2GlYlEPXJifXHdJw1ahDIXKfIFhvNhTgBbLRFJtn0v6U27XE9aQ0IEmKtCJtQLVl9e6c5RG_O9pJy3xGMMEBkUIHeWQyeNahkc1GypWo2wTp7zehAI7BNiI/s320/06-mmpb.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5650596061587276882" /></a><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Overall, June was a weak month for books sales. While ebooks did well, the wholesale side of the business took a hit due to the Boarders bankruptcy to the tune of about an 11% cut in revenue. I wonder if there will be a snap back after the liquidation (which is still going on in September)? Or is this just a setup to selling ereaders and tablets?<br /><br /><br />Got Popcorn?<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-67402517642694997142011-08-22T17:36:00.000-07:002011-08-31T19:27:16.900-07:00Where are the AAP sales numbers?Where are the <a href="http://www.publishers.org/">AAP numbers?</a> I see the <a href="http://www.publishers.org/press/44/">Bookstats.</a> <a href="http://davidgaughran.wordpress.com/2011/08/18/publishing-not-in-such-bad-shape-after-all/">David has already shown </a> how out of date those numbers are. <a href="http://write2publish.blogspot.com/2011/08/bisg-july-2011-ebook-buying-behavior.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WriteToPublish+%28Write+to+Publish%29">But Robin shows were in a seasonal lull</a> in ebook adoption.
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<br />So I ask, where are the numbers? They should be releasing the nice 'Sunshine' deal from Amazon (June) numbers right now. I speculate that between the Borders debacle and Amazon's sale, the numbers make print look worse than the <a href="http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/07/may-2011-ebook-sales.html">long term trend.</a>
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<br />If you look at Robin's article, we should expect another holiday shift. The interesting bit is that since this is now international (US, UK, Germany for Amazon and soon India), this will provide many opportunities for sales in the future.
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<br />But where are the AAP numbers? Hope is not a strategy...
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<br />Neil
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<br />ps
<br />Anyone else think the numbers will be even more convoluted than last month's release (see last link).
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<br />8/31/2011 update:
<br /><a href="http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/industry-news/financial-reporting/article/48530-profits-surge-at-random-house.html">Random House doing well in digital.</a>
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<br /><i>"Digital sales across all RH companies for the first half of 2011 have already exceeded their total for all of 2010, Dohle noted. In the U.S., digital sales accounted for over 20% of revenue, and RH has more than 27,000 titles available in e-book formats worldwide. "</i>
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<br />There is more worth reading in the above link. I think Random House has been wise in its aggressive move to digital. But they are only doing average for the AAP publishers in ebook market share (<A href="http://ebookcomments.blogspot.com/2011/07/may-2011-ebook-sales.html">See last month's sales numbers and market share</A>
<br />wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-31544393019407235202011-08-18T21:21:00.000-07:002011-08-18T22:09:18.523-07:00Can ebook growth keep Accelerating?<a href="http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/17/ebook-reader-sales-are-tripling-every-year/">E-ink expects to ship 27 million screens in 2011.</a> This has helped 2011 ebook sales be about 280% of 2010. On triple the ereader sales plus 'other reading devices.' Think about that ratio a minute.
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<br />2.8/(3X+1X)=70%
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<br />On average in 2011 ereader owners are buying 70% of the books per ereader as 2010 ereader owners. This is better than I expected! It means 2010 ereader buyers are still buying despite a 'too be read pile.' It also means that while, on average, new 2010 ereader buyers are not spending as much (at least on AAP books), they are not slackers in ebook buying either. So can we see further ebook buying acceleration in 2012?
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<br />Let me define acceleration. I do not mean that sales just increase, but that the *rate* of sales increase is greater than the prior year. Please look at this chart I put on on May ebook sales:
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<br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihvAzJH6sip_ksSDx6vC40NraN0e8M1r-0gmUEncQFQtaZ472hvdstBlY-epXSMTom4MSbINd3C0xTsKma7U3JZjlQF3z2v_nZe8RvsZuoVObUMGevjmjTooLYgXeGKdRIEnerK2YW08/s1600/01-ebook-sales.png"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 233px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjihvAzJH6sip_ksSDx6vC40NraN0e8M1r-0gmUEncQFQtaZ472hvdstBlY-epXSMTom4MSbINd3C0xTsKma7U3JZjlQF3z2v_nZe8RvsZuoVObUMGevjmjTooLYgXeGKdRIEnerK2YW08/s320/01-ebook-sales.png" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5632406493772036802" /></a>
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<br />Let's estimate ebook sales in 2012 off prior years. (Use the red lines as a guide.)
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<br />If we estimate off AAP ebook sales in 2010: $100 million per month in 2012.
<br />Off AAP sales in 2011: $150 million per month in 2012
<br />Off my estimate of total ebook sales in 2011: $200 million per month in 2012!
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<br />So acceleration of sales means ebook sales faster than $200 million per month in 2012. :) Can that happen?
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<br />First criteria is devices to read on. E-ink has two factories now. One of the two factories is new, so it isn't up to speed. I can only do a 'thumb in the wind estimate,' but I would guess e-ink could slightly more than double e-ink screens in 2012. Perhaps 2.5X the screens of 2011. So e-ink alone could accelerate sales!
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<br />But there is also Mirasol from Qualcomm.
<br />http://www.mirasoldisplays.com/
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<br />A new factory with new screen capabilities. So we could see 3X the ereaders in 2012 that we see in 2011.
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<br />The next need is the ratio of ebook sales to ereader sales. I expected that to drop far more than it has in 2010. 70% as many dollars of ebooks per ereader is great. I would have guessed 50% to 75% is a really optimistic turn out. A tripling of ereader sales plus the prior year sales to generate 200% to 300% of the ebook sales. I'm happy with 280%, but at some point 'less intense readers' will be the normal ereader buyer.
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<br />Low end is in 2012 double the ereader sales with a ratio of 50% is (2X+1X)*50%=150%. Or about $150million/month a year from now. So the low end is no acceleration in ebook sales, but no decline. If this happens, expect peak ebook sales to be 60% to 65% of the market (noted by the lack of ebook sales acceleration). I do not expect this scenario.
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<br />High end is a tripling of ereader sales again with a ratio of about 65%. (The ratio will always go down.) or (3x+1x)*65%=260% or ~$250million/month (realize we're working with approximate numbers here). Under this scenario ebooks will break 90% of the book market quickly. A little too ambitious in my opinion.
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<br />So either ereader sales will drop from the tripling of sales per year or the ratio will drop. We can bracket 2012 ereader sales at 2X to 3X 2011 ereader sales. We can bracket the ratio of ebook dollars per ereader (ignoring ereaders from prior years, assuming they get replaced) at 50% to 65%.
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<br />We can also know that both will not be at either their high or low extremes. What will they be? It is anyone's guess.
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<br />What I do know is that about a year from now I can tell you the approximate ebook market share in 2017. (Technical diffusion follows a pattern.)
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<br />With Amazon discounting the K3 to $114, I expect a K4 soon and in either September or October the 'Kindle tablet.' B&N <a href="http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/18/3847265/liberty-drops-barnes-noble-bid.html">just received a lifeline</a> that I expect to be invested in further Nook devices. Apple, Kobo, Sony, and Google will all remain active in the market too.
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<br />2012 Will be an exciting year for ebooks.
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<br />Got Popcorn?
<br />Neil
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<br />Ps
<br /><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304223804576446263484839694.html">First color e-ink go on sale in September</a>. Note: WSJ might be subscription. wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-26028340014031617152011-08-14T17:07:00.000-07:002011-08-14T17:29:09.464-07:00Ode to the IBM 5150My parents had a TRS-80
<br />Then mom needed an <A href="http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-20090728-92/how-ibms-5150-pc-shaped-the-computer-industry/">IBM 5150</A>
<br />Then in college, I borrowed Mac (friends or the universities)
<br />In grad school I bought a 'clone PC' or utilized Sun workstations.
<br />That clone PC went through two hard drives, three motherboards, two monitors, and three video cards. But like an axe where you replace the handle or the head, it was the same. :) Then I went through a pair of laptops. Both of which have helped me buy ebooks.
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<br />The 5150 was huge. Without 'the PC,' I doubt computers would be where they are today. It took someone to jump start the industry. It wasn't the first computer nor the last; but it launched an industry. Much like the Amazon Kindle. ;)
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<br />My point? Lead, follow, or get out of the way. IBM didn't control any of the software and that pushed them out of the business. Amazon, Apple, Nook (B&N), and Kobo all control the keys to their media. So I wonder if this generation of technology wouldn't be a bit more resistant?
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<br />I give the advantage to Amazon. As with the 5150, those were bought because they were a safe bet. With Amazon, their software (ebooks) will run on any platform/OS that will let them. I know of more than a few people who have bought Kindles as it was:
<br />1. Cheap (like the 5150 vs. other business computers)
<br />2. Portable software (5150 to Compaq, Kindle to an app)
<br />3. Market leader (there is a group that feels safe in the pack)
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<br />You might be going, why advantage to Amazon? I know of a few who didn't buy Ipads due to 'being locked into the ecosystem.' Amazon isn't doing a 'hard lock.' More of a 'convenience lock' which customers are happy with. For example, there is a reason Netflix is so popular; you don't have to buy their device.
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<br />We owe much to the 5150. Without it, there wouldn't be e-readers (in my opinion). 30 years of PCs. It seems like more.
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<br />Neil wannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8714163871112582556.post-50733855516062493382011-08-08T07:53:00.001-07:002011-08-08T08:30:23.785-07:00How ereaders will become cheaperWe discuss the sub $100 ereader in the comment section of various blogs, but the question should be "how can anyone sell a cheap ereader?"
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<br />1. Economy of scale. <A href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110808PD205.html">E-ink inc. is increasing shipments</A>
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<br />25million to 30million ereaders plus the Nook color and other device reading! Plus a new factory coming online...
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<br />2. <A href="http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110720PD213.htmll">Touch screens are the most costly component </A> for many of the devices. <A href="http://techcrunch.com/2011/07/25/report-amazon-to-use-two-finger-touchscreen-to-keep-table-competitive-with-the-ipad/">Two finger</A> and other low cost touchscreen solutions will be popular with ereaders.
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<br />3. <A href="http://www.slashgear.com/shortage-of-aluminum-computer-chassis-might-push-ultrabooks-to-fiberglass-05169795/">Frame costs among other components</A> A $5 savings might not sound like much, but it adds up.
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<br />4. <A href="http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4218318/TSMC-forecasts-falling-sales">Weak chip sales estimates for 3q2011</A> should reduce the build costs. Next year it will be the new 28nm chip manufacturing process.
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<br />5. Software profits (e.g., for Amazon, B&N, and Apple) Do I really need a link for my typical audience? In the long run the profit will be in the media, not the device. Thus vendors will cut profits.
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<br />6. Size. I wonder why no vendor has come out with a fractionally smaller e-reader? There is nothing magical about 6" or 7" screens. Oh, 3.5" is too small (too many page turns), but some middle ground would sell.
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<br />7. Cell Phones. Sales of these are exploding. Why isn't there an ereader cellphone subsidized by the carriers? Seriously, we've already had the 3G e-readers for $189. Increase the battery size a little and the ereader could be a free cellphone with data plan on any US cellphone network.
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<br />In conclusion:
<br /><A href="http://www.pwc.com/en_GX/gx/entertainment-media/pdf/eBooks-Trends-Developments.pdfchapter2.html">I keep reusing this link</A>. One item to note again and again is the 'elastic market' of ereaders. Look at the bottom of page 22. Currently over 53% of the potential ereader buyers are 'priced out' of the market. Note: That isn't the only growth; there is a huge market considering ereaders who remain on the fence. Ideas like Amazon's offers will further cut the price.
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<br />Ereaders are an elastic market. While some of us want higher end devices, there needs to be a gateway drug.
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<br />Got Popcorn?
<br />Neilwannabuyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04297458705683991405noreply@blogger.com0