Saturday, March 10, 2012
2011 Ebook Sales Summary
Ok, I've been a bit tardy in my posts. But now that December book sales are out (in their normal obscure form), we can look back in graphical form at all the changes in the industry.
There is one flaw in the data; as I peruse the charts one thing screams out; all indications are there are sales not being reported. In other words, I suspect indie ebook sales are a faster growing section of the book market. How I pine for Amazon figures...
To the graphs. The first observation is that AAP ebook sales have flat-lined. They are going neither up nor down for the publishers (the few that report). Does this pass a test on empirical observations on the growth of the market? Nope. I travel for work and I meet too many individuals who recently purchased a Kindle. This implies the ebook market is shifting away from the reporting AAP publishers... Good for Indie authors! :)
I've often plotted e-book growth on a year over year basis to help show the growth. Since this is AAP data, could it be that they've priced their ebooks above the volume of the market?
Ebook sales are flat for the AAP. Have enough readers discovered indie authors?
Overall trade paper is overall weak, but not horrid for December. But recall, overall it was a weak year. Note, the AAP lumps religion (all formats) and ebooks as part of trade. I specifically break out paper sales.
Hardcover is overall doing ok. But wait for the seasonal graph... It was a weak year overall.
Paperback seems to have returned to a normal year post the mid-year Borders related trama to this format's sales. This is a pleasant surprise!
Overall children's book sales have held up. This has to warm and readers heart. I personally expected iPad apps to have cut more into this category. Overall I'm happy to see these results.
MMPB continues along the same trend-line to its death. We are within 30 months of the end of the format. :( This has me sad as once this was once what I read more of than anything else. But then again, every mmpb reader that I know has an ereader (or two, if one counts tablets). Perhaps the format will survive at airports and drugstores in the spinning racks?
Seasonal Graphs
Time to look at how each format is selling seasonally. I don not like comparing to just one month as often sales shift from a month to another as downstream customer buying patterns change.
I like using bar charts when there is fast growth. Thus, the only format worth plotting in bar chart form is ebooks. E-books have not shown the mid to late year growth of prior years for AAP ebooks despite showing tremendous year over year growth. I wonder if enough authors have defected to self-publishing? (I can only speculate.) It seems like every author I buy has self-published or will as soon as they can put their 'ducks in a row.'
Since I've already commented on other seasonal graphs, I'll end typing here and just note that the ebook revolution did another leg up in 2011. While growth was faster than 2010, it seems to be slowing for the AAP. There are two possible conclusions from this:
1) Ebooks are approaching the half way point for adoption (unlikely this early) or
2) Self-published ebooks have grown far faster than I have predicted.
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
October 2011 e-book sales
October is the best month to sell print books. It used to be September, but computerization has pushed even an 'old school' industry like print to a more 'just in time' inventory system. (Good! Fewer returns will help save the industry.) So it shouldn't be a surprise that ebooks lost market share despite a small sales growth.
Sales of trade books were good in October. I speculate this is partially due to the 'Borders surplus stock' having worked its way through the channels. I submit that the recovery of adult paperback and children's books, two categories Borders was strong in, are compelling reasons to believe we are just now past the industry disruption of the Boarders close down.
Do note that data is intentionally being obscured. I had to back out these numbers, so there is more uncertainty in this month's data than prior posts.
Enough discussion, onto the graphs. Notice how ebook sales continue to climb?
Notice how October is usually the best selling month for paper-trade books (next image). Overall, trade (paper) had a good month.
It was not a good month for hardcover sales. The lack of a strong peak in Hardcover is one reason I speculate *some* of the strength this month was restocking post Borders liquidation. If there was an overall return to paper, we would have seen stronger recovery in Hardcovers. However, there is a good chance that 'just in time' ordering is putting this format out a month in the purchase cycle.
The dwindling of my (previous) favorite paper format, mass market paperback now has a definitive trend. A trend that shows the format will be out of production after 2014. :( I've been writing for a while how this genre requires a recovery to sustain 'economy of scale.' Its now almost too late. I expect MMPB to fold back into paperback for some publishers soon.
Borders once dominated paperback sales. I believe the absolutely spectacular spike in paperbacks can only be explained by a 'springback effect' post Borders liquidation. I'm happy to see it!
Childrens books had a nice spike too (for a non-Harry Potter year). I speculate this isn't just Borders. I speculate that Netflix and music subscriptions are 'taking away' gifting opportunities for relatives who wish to buy physical gifts. I speculate relatives are going back to gifting books. Any thoughts?
Seasonal Graphs
Due to the sheer amount of mis-information and obscurity on book/ebook sales, I like to plot seasonal graphs to show how the market is changing.
I start with a bar graph on ebooks. This shows how incredibly fast the year on year (YOY) growth has been for ebooks. :) It also shows how analogous the sales pattern in 2011 was to 2010. I now believe 2013 will be the last year with over doubling of ebook sales. Note: I'm not saying the market won't keep growing. Technology growth tends to slow once half the potential market has converted to the technology. That half way point for ebooks will happen in 2012, but the slowing of the growth shouldn't be obvious until 2014.
The initial buying of Hardcovers pre-Holiday sales are weak but not horrid. I've heard rumors that hardcover buying was delayed this year. Since that is a more businesslike way to stock inventory... I could believe it. Oh, I'm skeptical, but we could see a further compression of the book season.
The paperback spike looks less impressive when plotted versus prior years. See the June deficit? It is possible the October spike is just restocking shelves post Borders liquidation. :(
Since the trend down in MMPB crossed the 2010/2011 year boundary, the doom of MMPB is less obvious when plotted this way, but the decline is still obvious. Hence why plotting data different ways to see trends is important.
The spike up in Children's sales is greater than the post-Borders deficit! Hence my theory relatives are shifting gift buying back to books. :)
I've been calculating the trend and comparing with year ago sales. I created this bar chart to emphasize change. The most interesting tidbit is plotting this way we continue to see 2nd half 2011 ebook sales grew at a slower rate than the 1st half. However, the growth was still strong.
All the graphs show a (one month) recovery of print sales (excluding MMPB). They also show ebooks are strong. I speculate the next big splash will be November post the K4 deliveries. It will be very interesting to see the January sales data (which won't be released for about 3 months). I expect to see another start of year spike.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sales of trade books were good in October. I speculate this is partially due to the 'Borders surplus stock' having worked its way through the channels. I submit that the recovery of adult paperback and children's books, two categories Borders was strong in, are compelling reasons to believe we are just now past the industry disruption of the Boarders close down.
Do note that data is intentionally being obscured. I had to back out these numbers, so there is more uncertainty in this month's data than prior posts.
Enough discussion, onto the graphs. Notice how ebook sales continue to climb?
Notice how October is usually the best selling month for paper-trade books (next image). Overall, trade (paper) had a good month.
It was not a good month for hardcover sales. The lack of a strong peak in Hardcover is one reason I speculate *some* of the strength this month was restocking post Borders liquidation. If there was an overall return to paper, we would have seen stronger recovery in Hardcovers. However, there is a good chance that 'just in time' ordering is putting this format out a month in the purchase cycle.
The dwindling of my (previous) favorite paper format, mass market paperback now has a definitive trend. A trend that shows the format will be out of production after 2014. :( I've been writing for a while how this genre requires a recovery to sustain 'economy of scale.' Its now almost too late. I expect MMPB to fold back into paperback for some publishers soon.
Borders once dominated paperback sales. I believe the absolutely spectacular spike in paperbacks can only be explained by a 'springback effect' post Borders liquidation. I'm happy to see it!
Childrens books had a nice spike too (for a non-Harry Potter year). I speculate this isn't just Borders. I speculate that Netflix and music subscriptions are 'taking away' gifting opportunities for relatives who wish to buy physical gifts. I speculate relatives are going back to gifting books. Any thoughts?
Seasonal Graphs
Due to the sheer amount of mis-information and obscurity on book/ebook sales, I like to plot seasonal graphs to show how the market is changing.
I start with a bar graph on ebooks. This shows how incredibly fast the year on year (YOY) growth has been for ebooks. :) It also shows how analogous the sales pattern in 2011 was to 2010. I now believe 2013 will be the last year with over doubling of ebook sales. Note: I'm not saying the market won't keep growing. Technology growth tends to slow once half the potential market has converted to the technology. That half way point for ebooks will happen in 2012, but the slowing of the growth shouldn't be obvious until 2014.
The initial buying of Hardcovers pre-Holiday sales are weak but not horrid. I've heard rumors that hardcover buying was delayed this year. Since that is a more businesslike way to stock inventory... I could believe it. Oh, I'm skeptical, but we could see a further compression of the book season.
The paperback spike looks less impressive when plotted versus prior years. See the June deficit? It is possible the October spike is just restocking shelves post Borders liquidation. :(
Since the trend down in MMPB crossed the 2010/2011 year boundary, the doom of MMPB is less obvious when plotted this way, but the decline is still obvious. Hence why plotting data different ways to see trends is important.
The spike up in Children's sales is greater than the post-Borders deficit! Hence my theory relatives are shifting gift buying back to books. :)
I've been calculating the trend and comparing with year ago sales. I created this bar chart to emphasize change. The most interesting tidbit is plotting this way we continue to see 2nd half 2011 ebook sales grew at a slower rate than the 1st half. However, the growth was still strong.
All the graphs show a (one month) recovery of print sales (excluding MMPB). They also show ebooks are strong. I speculate the next big splash will be November post the K4 deliveries. It will be very interesting to see the January sales data (which won't be released for about 3 months). I expect to see another start of year spike.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sunday, November 20, 2011
First Week with Kindle Fire
My first impressions of the Kindle Fire are quite positive. In most ways, I cannot believe the thing only cost $199. I haven't tried everything, but so far I recommend the Kindle fire.
What I like:
1. Portability: It is easier to carry around than my K2 (even w/Marware case). For my young children, it is a perfect size.
2. Readability: The screen is easier to read than my laptop or the iPad1 for book text.
3. Speed: It is snappy. It makes our iPad1 feel slow
4. Browser: It just works. I need to learn a few more of the 'tricks' though. So expect a later review.
5. Second way to view books. This moved 3 books, already read, to the top of the TBR pile. I rather like searching by covers.
6. Value. The iPad in a child's hands is something one must watch (to keep it safe)
7. Setup. Just remember it will need wifi and a while on the charger for initial patch download.
What I am 50/50 on:
1. Battery life. It is trending towards 7 hours of battery life on mixed use (games and reading). Compare this versus 9+ hours on the iPad1. My family has used up the battery before the day was done. But it was needing a charge after we arrived back home.
2. The onscreen keyboard. Perhaps it is the 7" screen crimping the layout and my man fingers?
3. Eye strain. Its less than a laptop or iPad, but far more than e-ink. I've read three books on the Kindle fire with far less stain than other (non-Nook) LCDs. I intend to keep the K2 for most book reading.
4. Screen size. I love the portability, but the screen in landscape mode is only as wide as the iPad's in portrait. It is perfect for books. Ok, for simple games (angry birds, etc.), ok for browsing (in landscape only), and... Its ok.
What I do not like:
1. Highlighting text in the browser is done how? This crimps participating in blogs. In fact, I spend too much time on blogs to ever have a tablet be more than a second computer. This is true of our iPad and certainly true of the Kindle Fire.
2. No SD card slot. This would make life much easier.
3. Some of the commands have too small a difference between one command and the other and thus it is almost random
4. How do you turn off ordering without a password? Seriously, my three year old has figured out the store. How do I loan her the Fire without finding a hundred new apps, books, and videos loaded? I worry about the Amazon store integration too when loaning to a young child...
What I haven't tried:
1. Sideloading. So much of my Amazon content was available I haven't needed to yet. I will be moving over my mp3 collection soon as well has home videos.
2. Organizing my books. I'm just not seeing an easy way, so I'll have to Google how to do it. I wish my K2's collections had moved over... :( Why repeat that work...
3. Videos. We already, through other means, have free shipping from Amazon. I haven't been able to justify paying for Prime for the videos... I might in the future.
I've read some negative reviews on the Fire I just do not get. Ok, the navigation isn't iPad navigation; it took me a day to find all the tricks. If you've never used an iPad/iPhone, the controls will be just as easy to learn as Apple's. There are some quirks with the control interface, but only that notable if you come over from the iPad. The Fire isn't an iPad replacement; it is so cheap and portable it creates a new category that I believe will sell far more units.
In price, it competes with the 8GB iPod touch. But doing "screen area is proportional to diagonal squared," I couldn't imagine doing more than a 'snap read' on a 3.5" screen. Most of those I know who read on smartphones become annoyed at the page turns after ten to fifteen minutes of reading (the format doesn't 'fade away' as with a Kindle e-ink). With the Kindle Fire, it is suitable for an hour or two of reading. That said, for long reads I will turn it off and return to the K2.
For kids books, it is excellent! However, my three year old isn't able to navigate as easy as the iPad1. For books with graphs, the Kindle Fire works well too.
I've found is that due to its portability it is far more useful. It fits in my coat pockets or cargo pant pockets (again, it is smaller than a K2) so it is far more likely to travel than our iPad. My one regret? It doesn't have a cell phone interface! If it did (and a camera w/more flash storage), it would be an ideal convergence device.
I expect the Kindle Fire to sell out. For the price, it is that good.
Neil
What I like:
1. Portability: It is easier to carry around than my K2 (even w/Marware case). For my young children, it is a perfect size.
2. Readability: The screen is easier to read than my laptop or the iPad1 for book text.
3. Speed: It is snappy. It makes our iPad1 feel slow
4. Browser: It just works. I need to learn a few more of the 'tricks' though. So expect a later review.
5. Second way to view books. This moved 3 books, already read, to the top of the TBR pile. I rather like searching by covers.
6. Value. The iPad in a child's hands is something one must watch (to keep it safe)
7. Setup. Just remember it will need wifi and a while on the charger for initial patch download.
What I am 50/50 on:
1. Battery life. It is trending towards 7 hours of battery life on mixed use (games and reading). Compare this versus 9+ hours on the iPad1. My family has used up the battery before the day was done. But it was needing a charge after we arrived back home.
2. The onscreen keyboard. Perhaps it is the 7" screen crimping the layout and my man fingers?
3. Eye strain. Its less than a laptop or iPad, but far more than e-ink. I've read three books on the Kindle fire with far less stain than other (non-Nook) LCDs. I intend to keep the K2 for most book reading.
4. Screen size. I love the portability, but the screen in landscape mode is only as wide as the iPad's in portrait. It is perfect for books. Ok, for simple games (angry birds, etc.), ok for browsing (in landscape only), and... Its ok.
What I do not like:
1. Highlighting text in the browser is done how? This crimps participating in blogs. In fact, I spend too much time on blogs to ever have a tablet be more than a second computer. This is true of our iPad and certainly true of the Kindle Fire.
2. No SD card slot. This would make life much easier.
3. Some of the commands have too small a difference between one command and the other and thus it is almost random
4. How do you turn off ordering without a password? Seriously, my three year old has figured out the store. How do I loan her the Fire without finding a hundred new apps, books, and videos loaded? I worry about the Amazon store integration too when loaning to a young child...
What I haven't tried:
1. Sideloading. So much of my Amazon content was available I haven't needed to yet. I will be moving over my mp3 collection soon as well has home videos.
2. Organizing my books. I'm just not seeing an easy way, so I'll have to Google how to do it. I wish my K2's collections had moved over... :( Why repeat that work...
3. Videos. We already, through other means, have free shipping from Amazon. I haven't been able to justify paying for Prime for the videos... I might in the future.
I've read some negative reviews on the Fire I just do not get. Ok, the navigation isn't iPad navigation; it took me a day to find all the tricks. If you've never used an iPad/iPhone, the controls will be just as easy to learn as Apple's. There are some quirks with the control interface, but only that notable if you come over from the iPad. The Fire isn't an iPad replacement; it is so cheap and portable it creates a new category that I believe will sell far more units.
In price, it competes with the 8GB iPod touch. But doing "screen area is proportional to diagonal squared," I couldn't imagine doing more than a 'snap read' on a 3.5" screen. Most of those I know who read on smartphones become annoyed at the page turns after ten to fifteen minutes of reading (the format doesn't 'fade away' as with a Kindle e-ink). With the Kindle Fire, it is suitable for an hour or two of reading. That said, for long reads I will turn it off and return to the K2.
For kids books, it is excellent! However, my three year old isn't able to navigate as easy as the iPad1. For books with graphs, the Kindle Fire works well too.
I've found is that due to its portability it is far more useful. It fits in my coat pockets or cargo pant pockets (again, it is smaller than a K2) so it is far more likely to travel than our iPad. My one regret? It doesn't have a cell phone interface! If it did (and a camera w/more flash storage), it would be an ideal convergence device.
I expect the Kindle Fire to sell out. For the price, it is that good.
Neil
Saturday, November 12, 2011
31.4% growth Ereaders in 2012? No... Faster!
Digitimes is predicting ereader sales slow their growth in 2012 (globally) vs. 2011 to only 31.4% YOY growth. That link is also predicting that Amazon's share:
2008: 65.7%
2009: 63.4%
2010: 62.8%
2011: 73.7% of 22M ereaders.
My comments: For there only to be 31.4% growth after 100% growth year after year doesn't make sense. Market penetration tends to be symmetrical until a new technology displaces the old. Considering how many new buyers of the lower cost Kindles are coming out of the woodwork, I expect far faster growth in 2012. But... I also expect 2012 to be the last year of fast ereader growth.
It takes 2 to 3 years of ereader sales in a region to stimulate the growth. Book readers want to see their friends try out an ereader before they 'give up the smell' of books. The K1 was launched in 2007; we've yet to see more than about a quarter of books selling via ebook (in dollars).
I'm also very bullish on Amazon doing well in India (due to the quantity of people there who have the ability to read in English). With the new Kobo buyout, I'm also more bullish on ereaders in Asia (Japan in 2012, but all of Asia in the next 5 years).
My prediction is 45 to 55 million ereaders in 2012 (global prediction). I also predict, in 2012, that about 25% of the growth in ebooks will be via tablets (Kindle Fire, iPad 2/3, Nook Tablet, other tablets). In my opinion the rapid growth of ereading on cell phones is coming to an end. Oh, I predict new readers will still try out the Kindle app on cell phones and existing ereaders will take 'convenience reads' on their cell phones. My opinion is based on how many people are switching from reading on their cell phones to ereaders or tablets. 7" tablets are small enough to tote around (10" tablets are not... trust me. I made the mistake of lugging our iPad around today).
I wonder how the overall ebook market share will go. I'm waiting to see how the Kobo buyout works. IMHO, that could be the #1 global threat to the Kindle.
Neil
2008: 65.7%
2009: 63.4%
2010: 62.8%
2011: 73.7% of 22M ereaders.
My comments: For there only to be 31.4% growth after 100% growth year after year doesn't make sense. Market penetration tends to be symmetrical until a new technology displaces the old. Considering how many new buyers of the lower cost Kindles are coming out of the woodwork, I expect far faster growth in 2012. But... I also expect 2012 to be the last year of fast ereader growth.
It takes 2 to 3 years of ereader sales in a region to stimulate the growth. Book readers want to see their friends try out an ereader before they 'give up the smell' of books. The K1 was launched in 2007; we've yet to see more than about a quarter of books selling via ebook (in dollars).
I'm also very bullish on Amazon doing well in India (due to the quantity of people there who have the ability to read in English). With the new Kobo buyout, I'm also more bullish on ereaders in Asia (Japan in 2012, but all of Asia in the next 5 years).
My prediction is 45 to 55 million ereaders in 2012 (global prediction). I also predict, in 2012, that about 25% of the growth in ebooks will be via tablets (Kindle Fire, iPad 2/3, Nook Tablet, other tablets). In my opinion the rapid growth of ereading on cell phones is coming to an end. Oh, I predict new readers will still try out the Kindle app on cell phones and existing ereaders will take 'convenience reads' on their cell phones. My opinion is based on how many people are switching from reading on their cell phones to ereaders or tablets. 7" tablets are small enough to tote around (10" tablets are not... trust me. I made the mistake of lugging our iPad around today).
I wonder how the overall ebook market share will go. I'm waiting to see how the Kobo buyout works. IMHO, that could be the #1 global threat to the Kindle.
Neil
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
August 2011 Ebook Sales
As David noted, time to dust off the charts, we have AAP numbers.
Note: Its late, kids didn't want to sleep and I have an early meeting. So I'm just going to note that ebook sales were good, trade sales show a downward trend that is in line with prior months. I'm also skipping some graphs (Mea Culpa). But the main data is here for your enjoyment:
The only seasonal is ebooks in bar format:
Note: Its late, kids didn't want to sleep and I have an early meeting. So I'm just going to note that ebook sales were good, trade sales show a downward trend that is in line with prior months. I'm also skipping some graphs (Mea Culpa). But the main data is here for your enjoyment:
The only seasonal is ebooks in bar format:
Monday, October 31, 2011
AAP Sales too obscured to chart
Do I chart August sales that were YTD sales are far less than the sum of prior YTD reports?
YTD hardcover sums to $930.4M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD sales through August of $641.7M. Ummm....
YTD paperback sums to $772.5M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD of 772.5M.
YTD MMP $380.4M (through July) vs. $310.4 through August.
YTD Childrends $734.23 through July vs. a reported $638.4M through August.
Ebooks: $638.4M through July vs. reported $649.2M through August.
In other words, the downward revisions in sales mean August had massive negative sales for every category except ebooks. Ebooks would have puny sales... I suspect fewer vendors reported.
I hope monthly book sales come out later. August sales would normally have come out now, but the AAP is delaying, hiding, and obscuring the data as much as possible. I suspect we'll see numbers later worth graphing.
But when the sum of 8 months of sales is that much less than the sum of the previously reported 7 months of sales...
Neil
YTD hardcover sums to $930.4M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD sales through August of $641.7M. Ummm....
YTD paperback sums to $772.5M (January through July) while the AAP reports YTD of 772.5M.
YTD MMP $380.4M (through July) vs. $310.4 through August.
YTD Childrends $734.23 through July vs. a reported $638.4M through August.
Ebooks: $638.4M through July vs. reported $649.2M through August.
In other words, the downward revisions in sales mean August had massive negative sales for every category except ebooks. Ebooks would have puny sales... I suspect fewer vendors reported.
I hope monthly book sales come out later. August sales would normally have come out now, but the AAP is delaying, hiding, and obscuring the data as much as possible. I suspect we'll see numbers later worth graphing.
But when the sum of 8 months of sales is that much less than the sum of the previously reported 7 months of sales...
Neil
Saturday, October 15, 2011
July 2011 E-book Sales
July ebook figures are finally out. We can now see that the K3/Nook Color launch put a stake in the heart of Adult paperbacks. The K2 started that job with MMPB. What will the new Kindles do? We've been waiting for sub-$100 ereaders from a big name to accelerate ebook sales...
Everyone has already told you ebooks continue to show good growth. Paper trade sales were weak, but not as weak as they were earlier in 2011. If I estimate children's sales, which weren't disclosed, trade sales were 84% of 2010. Much noise has been made of the Hardcover sales. They weren't bad. But if just some of August's hardcover sales were moved to July by 'stuffing the channel,' we could be seeing noise.
Sources:
YTD sales
July Sales
David has already posted, but I do the graphs. ;)
Or could it be due to the big6 favoring Hardcover sales at the expense of everything else, including overall profit. I can only speculate on this. But look at it this way, two of my favorite sci-fi authors just released new books. Eric Flint's is only in Hardcover and David Weber is charging $12.99 for the ebook. Oh well, I'll wait and buy other books that interest me.
To the graphs!
Ebook sales remain at a pace faster than an extrapolation of the 2010 sales. I keep noting that that means we have not yet hit the point where ebooks are at half the market penetration they will achieve. Hold that thought for the next graph:
Since e-books are less than half the market, approaching 29% with my estimate of Indie sales, we should expect ebooks sales to one day be over double today's market share. When we pass the mid-point, we'll see sales below the prior year's trend line (see the first chart). We are not there yet!
Print Trade is not doing well. It is below trend for July. Now, with my estimate of Children't books, it is at 84% of 2010. I suspect my estimate of Children's book sales will prove to be too optimistic.
Am I the only one who sees a downward trend for MMPB? If one eyeballs a trendline since the K3/Nook Color launch, it looks like the end of MMPB will be in 2013. :( If one does the trendline from the K2 launch, the end of MMPB would be in 2014. MMPB was my prior favorite book form factor. The form factor has plummeted below viable economics. I suspect the espresso machines will fill the market for what MMPB customers who insist on paper.
Hardcover books had a good month. Better than prior years trends. My question, is the channel getting stuffed? I hope I'm being a nay-sayer... So we'll have to wait and see.
Paperback is weak too. Again, I see a trendline. From the K3's/Nook Color's launch, Paperback's have been on a declining trend. Again, a trend that shows an end to the form factor in 2013.
There is no data on Children's books for this month. Since Childrens books have been trending at 77% of 2010 sales, I took that number. My rational is that if the numbers were any better, we would have heard them. I suspect the Sales of children's books could have been worse. :(
I assume you've seen the Youtube of the 1 year old who doesn't get magazines. My two very young daughters love touchscreen. Their Grandma is now buying them electronic book gift cards instead of print books. Good, bad, or indifferent, that is where the market will go. I've seen it with Mom's with the Nook and the iPad and the Kindle Fire will kick that trend into high gear.
Seasonal Graphs
I do different graphs to show the trends in different ways. The bar chart shows ebook growth was spectacular in July, just not as spectacular as prior months in 2011. I read discussions of a 'lull' this summer in ebook blog comment sections. I suspect August numbers will reflect the same trend.
The seasonal graph for Hardcovers in July helps show that July was a great July for Hardcovers, but it is September through December where the money is made. Let's see how hardcovers do during the ramp up to holiday shopping:
The seasonal graph on paperbacks shows more of what I was discussing earlier: The K3 stared this form factor's slow death.
MMPB has been on a downward trend since the K2 launch. The K3/Nook Color launch accelerated that trend. Anyone want to bet against the K4/Kindle Fire/Nook Color 2/iPad2/Android tablet assault?
I had to estimate Children's sales for July. The trend for 2011 is 77% of 2010. If that was the July sales, we could have our next category breaking down. If Children's sales are going down, I wouldn't look at the prior B&W Kindles. As I noted, kids today expect touchscreen. Between the Kindle Fire/Nook Color (2?)/Android tablets and a horde of smartphones, I'm betting on touchscreen for 2012.
I save the ebook seasonal graph for last as... ebook sales are only seasonal in two ways. First, the 2nd half sales see a jump. Usually that jump is in July, but could the excellent weather have delayed the spike up? The other 'seasonality' is that there is also a beginning of the year spike as those Christmas ereaders are loaded up. :) Otherwise, note the nice year on year growth the last few years?
Predictions and comparison vs. Prior years
I introduced the last chart just over a month ago. I show:
1. Nominal sales from prior years (pre-2010)
2. 2010 sales for that category
3. How the sales should be following the 2011 YTD trend tweaked to be a prediction (oops, I shouldn't have tweaked children's expected sales).
4. Actual sales.
Overall trade was weak, but not as bad as it was. The big boost was Hardcover, which is doing better than pre-Kindle trends! MMPB and adult paperback are in an rapid decline with paperback's decline possibly accelerating.
Each succeeding generation of ereaders is taking down one more category of books. The K2/Nook/Sony ereaders/Kobo started the MMPB decline. The K3/Nook Color initiated the drop in adult paperbacks. I suspect we're about to see touchscreens hitting children's sales. That leaves the question, will hardcover somehow survive the onslaught of the K4/Nook color 2/iPad2? I suspect that in 7 or 8 months, we'll have the data to say hardcover sales went digital with the emerging generation of ereaders and tablets.
Neil
Everyone has already told you ebooks continue to show good growth. Paper trade sales were weak, but not as weak as they were earlier in 2011. If I estimate children's sales, which weren't disclosed, trade sales were 84% of 2010. Much noise has been made of the Hardcover sales. They weren't bad. But if just some of August's hardcover sales were moved to July by 'stuffing the channel,' we could be seeing noise.
Sources:
YTD sales
July Sales
David has already posted, but I do the graphs. ;)
Or could it be due to the big6 favoring Hardcover sales at the expense of everything else, including overall profit. I can only speculate on this. But look at it this way, two of my favorite sci-fi authors just released new books. Eric Flint's is only in Hardcover and David Weber is charging $12.99 for the ebook. Oh well, I'll wait and buy other books that interest me.
To the graphs!
Ebook sales remain at a pace faster than an extrapolation of the 2010 sales. I keep noting that that means we have not yet hit the point where ebooks are at half the market penetration they will achieve. Hold that thought for the next graph:
Since e-books are less than half the market, approaching 29% with my estimate of Indie sales, we should expect ebooks sales to one day be over double today's market share. When we pass the mid-point, we'll see sales below the prior year's trend line (see the first chart). We are not there yet!
Print Trade is not doing well. It is below trend for July. Now, with my estimate of Children't books, it is at 84% of 2010. I suspect my estimate of Children's book sales will prove to be too optimistic.
Am I the only one who sees a downward trend for MMPB? If one eyeballs a trendline since the K3/Nook Color launch, it looks like the end of MMPB will be in 2013. :( If one does the trendline from the K2 launch, the end of MMPB would be in 2014. MMPB was my prior favorite book form factor. The form factor has plummeted below viable economics. I suspect the espresso machines will fill the market for what MMPB customers who insist on paper.
Hardcover books had a good month. Better than prior years trends. My question, is the channel getting stuffed? I hope I'm being a nay-sayer... So we'll have to wait and see.
Paperback is weak too. Again, I see a trendline. From the K3's/Nook Color's launch, Paperback's have been on a declining trend. Again, a trend that shows an end to the form factor in 2013.
There is no data on Children's books for this month. Since Childrens books have been trending at 77% of 2010 sales, I took that number. My rational is that if the numbers were any better, we would have heard them. I suspect the Sales of children's books could have been worse. :(
I assume you've seen the Youtube of the 1 year old who doesn't get magazines. My two very young daughters love touchscreen. Their Grandma is now buying them electronic book gift cards instead of print books. Good, bad, or indifferent, that is where the market will go. I've seen it with Mom's with the Nook and the iPad and the Kindle Fire will kick that trend into high gear.
Seasonal Graphs
I do different graphs to show the trends in different ways. The bar chart shows ebook growth was spectacular in July, just not as spectacular as prior months in 2011. I read discussions of a 'lull' this summer in ebook blog comment sections. I suspect August numbers will reflect the same trend.
The seasonal graph for Hardcovers in July helps show that July was a great July for Hardcovers, but it is September through December where the money is made. Let's see how hardcovers do during the ramp up to holiday shopping:
The seasonal graph on paperbacks shows more of what I was discussing earlier: The K3 stared this form factor's slow death.
MMPB has been on a downward trend since the K2 launch. The K3/Nook Color launch accelerated that trend. Anyone want to bet against the K4/Kindle Fire/Nook Color 2/iPad2/Android tablet assault?
I had to estimate Children's sales for July. The trend for 2011 is 77% of 2010. If that was the July sales, we could have our next category breaking down. If Children's sales are going down, I wouldn't look at the prior B&W Kindles. As I noted, kids today expect touchscreen. Between the Kindle Fire/Nook Color (2?)/Android tablets and a horde of smartphones, I'm betting on touchscreen for 2012.
I save the ebook seasonal graph for last as... ebook sales are only seasonal in two ways. First, the 2nd half sales see a jump. Usually that jump is in July, but could the excellent weather have delayed the spike up? The other 'seasonality' is that there is also a beginning of the year spike as those Christmas ereaders are loaded up. :) Otherwise, note the nice year on year growth the last few years?
Predictions and comparison vs. Prior years
I introduced the last chart just over a month ago. I show:
1. Nominal sales from prior years (pre-2010)
2. 2010 sales for that category
3. How the sales should be following the 2011 YTD trend tweaked to be a prediction (oops, I shouldn't have tweaked children's expected sales).
4. Actual sales.
Overall trade was weak, but not as bad as it was. The big boost was Hardcover, which is doing better than pre-Kindle trends! MMPB and adult paperback are in an rapid decline with paperback's decline possibly accelerating.
Each succeeding generation of ereaders is taking down one more category of books. The K2/Nook/Sony ereaders/Kobo started the MMPB decline. The K3/Nook Color initiated the drop in adult paperbacks. I suspect we're about to see touchscreens hitting children's sales. That leaves the question, will hardcover somehow survive the onslaught of the K4/Nook color 2/iPad2? I suspect that in 7 or 8 months, we'll have the data to say hardcover sales went digital with the emerging generation of ereaders and tablets.
Neil
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