Digitimes is predicting ereader sales slow their growth in 2012 (globally) vs. 2011 to only 31.4% YOY growth. That link is also predicting that Amazon's share:
2008: 65.7%
2009: 63.4%
2010: 62.8%
2011: 73.7% of 22M ereaders.
My comments: For there only to be 31.4% growth after 100% growth year after year doesn't make sense. Market penetration tends to be symmetrical until a new technology displaces the old. Considering how many new buyers of the lower cost Kindles are coming out of the woodwork, I expect far faster growth in 2012. But... I also expect 2012 to be the last year of fast ereader growth.
It takes 2 to 3 years of ereader sales in a region to stimulate the growth. Book readers want to see their friends try out an ereader before they 'give up the smell' of books. The K1 was launched in 2007; we've yet to see more than about a quarter of books selling via ebook (in dollars).
I'm also very bullish on Amazon doing well in India (due to the quantity of people there who have the ability to read in English). With the new Kobo buyout, I'm also more bullish on ereaders in Asia (Japan in 2012, but all of Asia in the next 5 years).
My prediction is 45 to 55 million ereaders in 2012 (global prediction). I also predict, in 2012, that about 25% of the growth in ebooks will be via tablets (Kindle Fire, iPad 2/3, Nook Tablet, other tablets). In my opinion the rapid growth of ereading on cell phones is coming to an end. Oh, I predict new readers will still try out the Kindle app on cell phones and existing ereaders will take 'convenience reads' on their cell phones. My opinion is based on how many people are switching from reading on their cell phones to ereaders or tablets. 7" tablets are small enough to tote around (10" tablets are not... trust me. I made the mistake of lugging our iPad around today).
I wonder how the overall ebook market share will go. I'm waiting to see how the Kobo buyout works. IMHO, that could be the #1 global threat to the Kindle.
Neil
Showing posts with label ereader. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ereader. Show all posts
Saturday, November 12, 2011
Saturday, October 1, 2011
2.7 Kindles 2Q2011, Estimated over 25 million in 2011
Amazon sold about 2.7m of its Kindle e-readers in the second quarter as it took 51.7% of the e-reader market, IDC says. The second-larger share was taken by Barnes & Noble's reader, with 21.2%, in a market totalling 5.4m units in total for the quarter.
Source Gaurdian
Now let's talk other ereader numbers:
Digitimes has more information
6.9 million Kindles in 2010
Total 6.0 million Kindles in the 1st half of 2011 (not surprising, ereaders sell better in the 1st quarter than the 2nd quarter).
Expecting sales of 15 million 'new Kindles' and 'Kindle touch' (in 2011)
Plus some undisclosed number of K3s/'Kindle Keyboard' in the 2nd half of 2011.
And 4 million 'Kindle Fire'
Or: 25+ million Kindles in 2011 versus 6.9 million in 2010.
Look at that seasonality... 19 million in the 4th quarter versus 6 million in the first half of the year. Plus a few million more K3s sold in the 3rd quarter. :)
Amazon has laid down their cards. The competition must react.
Late edit:
IDC raised the ereader estimate from a mere 16.2 million units to 27 million. They're also going to count the 'Kindle Fire' as ereaders and not tablets. If they're doing that, I expect ereader sales to easily beat their expectations. Then again, they only expected ereaders under $100, not all the way down at $79. (I still am amazed how aggressive Amazon is being.)
If my previous post's prediction of new Kindles selling half as many books per Kindle as older Kindles holds true, we'll still see an explosion in ebook sales. I'm very much looking forward to seeing what indie author sales do after November 16th (new Kindle shipping date).
Got Popcorn,
Neil
Source Gaurdian
Now let's talk other ereader numbers:
Digitimes has more information
6.9 million Kindles in 2010
Total 6.0 million Kindles in the 1st half of 2011 (not surprising, ereaders sell better in the 1st quarter than the 2nd quarter).
Expecting sales of 15 million 'new Kindles' and 'Kindle touch' (in 2011)
Plus some undisclosed number of K3s/'Kindle Keyboard' in the 2nd half of 2011.
And 4 million 'Kindle Fire'
Or: 25+ million Kindles in 2011 versus 6.9 million in 2010.
Look at that seasonality... 19 million in the 4th quarter versus 6 million in the first half of the year. Plus a few million more K3s sold in the 3rd quarter. :)
Amazon has laid down their cards. The competition must react.
Late edit:
IDC raised the ereader estimate from a mere 16.2 million units to 27 million. They're also going to count the 'Kindle Fire' as ereaders and not tablets. If they're doing that, I expect ereader sales to easily beat their expectations. Then again, they only expected ereaders under $100, not all the way down at $79. (I still am amazed how aggressive Amazon is being.)
If my previous post's prediction of new Kindles selling half as many books per Kindle as older Kindles holds true, we'll still see an explosion in ebook sales. I'm very much looking forward to seeing what indie author sales do after November 16th (new Kindle shipping date).
Got Popcorn,
Neil
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Prediction: Fewer ebooks per Kindle for lower cost Kindles
$99 ereaders are here and they will push ereaders into new markets. Unfortunately, many of those new Kindles sold will not sell as many books per Kindle.
Why? Many of the early adopters of the Kindle read over a hundred books per year.
I know of one individual who is buying 'extra Kindles' to avoid the inconvenience of forgetting to pack a Kindle for travel or even walk across the house! That will increase the reading a little (in particular not forgetting the Kindle on a six-week trip...), but only incrementally.
I know of several families who either made their kids share a Kindle or wouldn't risk giving a $139 device to that young of a child who will be buying a new lower cost Kindle. This will increase reading, but not as many books per year as when the family shared a Kindle.
Multiple coworkers 'jumped off the fence' and have already ordered a Kindle. Something about the 'below $100 price point.' None of these coworkers read more than thirty books per year.
I know of a few grandmothers who will buy grandkids Kindles. Some of those grandkids are voracious readers (that is good...). Some of the grandkids will say a polite 'thank you' and never buy more than one or two books for the Kindle. :(
I also know of a few parents (mostly the moms) who still eread on smartphones or a laptop. In general, those that didn't buy a Kindle or Nook in the past were those that read less than twenty books per year. More than a few will buy a Kindle (or Nook, if the price drops enough) this holiday season for themselves (or buy it for the hubby to put under the tree). ;)
Most of the potential Kindle customers seem undecided between the $79 Kindle, $99 touch Kindle, and $99 Keyboard Kindle. Or even splurging on the $199 Fire... Amazon gave customers too much choice! Perhaps the mid-November ship date is having customers wait to decide? However, birthdays and the holidays put a forcing function on the buying decision. I would be surprised if some of the Kindles didn't sell out and force the selection decision.
I estimate that these lower cost Kindles might sell as few as half the ebooks per Kindle as the earlier Kindle sales. The lower price points are reaching out to less intense readers. However, that is a good thing; it still expands the customer base. I hope low cost ereader sales will turn some 'moderate readers' back into 'intense ereaders.' e-readership is known for 'convenience reading' which increases the quantity of books sold. :)
Neil
Why? Many of the early adopters of the Kindle read over a hundred books per year.
I know of one individual who is buying 'extra Kindles' to avoid the inconvenience of forgetting to pack a Kindle for travel or even walk across the house! That will increase the reading a little (in particular not forgetting the Kindle on a six-week trip...), but only incrementally.
I know of several families who either made their kids share a Kindle or wouldn't risk giving a $139 device to that young of a child who will be buying a new lower cost Kindle. This will increase reading, but not as many books per year as when the family shared a Kindle.
Multiple coworkers 'jumped off the fence' and have already ordered a Kindle. Something about the 'below $100 price point.' None of these coworkers read more than thirty books per year.
I know of a few grandmothers who will buy grandkids Kindles. Some of those grandkids are voracious readers (that is good...). Some of the grandkids will say a polite 'thank you' and never buy more than one or two books for the Kindle. :(
I also know of a few parents (mostly the moms) who still eread on smartphones or a laptop. In general, those that didn't buy a Kindle or Nook in the past were those that read less than twenty books per year. More than a few will buy a Kindle (or Nook, if the price drops enough) this holiday season for themselves (or buy it for the hubby to put under the tree). ;)
Most of the potential Kindle customers seem undecided between the $79 Kindle, $99 touch Kindle, and $99 Keyboard Kindle. Or even splurging on the $199 Fire... Amazon gave customers too much choice! Perhaps the mid-November ship date is having customers wait to decide? However, birthdays and the holidays put a forcing function on the buying decision. I would be surprised if some of the Kindles didn't sell out and force the selection decision.
I estimate that these lower cost Kindles might sell as few as half the ebooks per Kindle as the earlier Kindle sales. The lower price points are reaching out to less intense readers. However, that is a good thing; it still expands the customer base. I hope low cost ereader sales will turn some 'moderate readers' back into 'intense ereaders.' e-readership is known for 'convenience reading' which increases the quantity of books sold. :)
Neil
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
$99 Ereaders
Amazon just dropped the knife on ereader prices via the 'with offers' (add supported Kindles).
Thre Kindles $99 and under.
The new $79 Kindle
The new $99 Kindle touch
The renamed $99 Kindle Keyboard (ex-K3 with Special offers)
Figure 11 shows how many people would, by an older survey, buy ereaders at each price point. I'm going to sum the numbers:
Above $400 1% of the market
Above $300 4% of the market (3% of $300 plus the sum of the higher price points)
Above $200 15% of the market (again, summing the price points)
Above $100 46% of the market will consider an ereader.
Now that we're $79 to $99, 79% of the buying base of ereaders will consider an ereaer. Just by lowering the price of the ereader, the ebook market should grow 71%!
But wait... we still had 'resistance' to ereaders who are 'giving in' and buying an ereader. This is readers 'pulled' to ereaders.
The Boarders BK will 'push' further readers to ereaders.
2012 will have tremendous growth in ebook sales. The last price point of resistance is to get below $50. Amazon has a goal for next Christmas. ;)
Neil
Ps (Late edit)
I noticed the new 'Kindle' and 'Kindle Touch' are lighter than the 'Kindle Keyboard' (renamed-K3 w/special offers). I'm still using my K2 and found the lighter weight of the 'Kindle Keyboard' one of its best features.
Thre Kindles $99 and under.
The new $79 Kindle
The new $99 Kindle touch
The renamed $99 Kindle Keyboard (ex-K3 with Special offers)
Figure 11 shows how many people would, by an older survey, buy ereaders at each price point. I'm going to sum the numbers:
Above $400 1% of the market
Above $300 4% of the market (3% of $300 plus the sum of the higher price points)
Above $200 15% of the market (again, summing the price points)
Above $100 46% of the market will consider an ereader.
Now that we're $79 to $99, 79% of the buying base of ereaders will consider an ereaer. Just by lowering the price of the ereader, the ebook market should grow 71%!
But wait... we still had 'resistance' to ereaders who are 'giving in' and buying an ereader. This is readers 'pulled' to ereaders.
The Boarders BK will 'push' further readers to ereaders.
2012 will have tremendous growth in ebook sales. The last price point of resistance is to get below $50. Amazon has a goal for next Christmas. ;)
Neil
Ps (Late edit)
I noticed the new 'Kindle' and 'Kindle Touch' are lighter than the 'Kindle Keyboard' (renamed-K3 w/special offers). I'm still using my K2 and found the lighter weight of the 'Kindle Keyboard' one of its best features.
Monday, September 26, 2011
25 to 30 million e-ink ereaders in 2011
E-ink is reporting that they'll meet projections for ereaders in 2011.
I found this bit interesting:
But global shipments of e-book readers experienced a seasonal dip in the second-quarter, according to IDC. Shipments reached nearly six million units in first-quarter 2011, but shipments in the second quarter totaled 5.4 million units, up 167% on-year but down 9.2% on-quarter.
Amazon Kindle's market share slid to 51.7% in the second-quarter from about 53% in the first, while Barnes & Noble's Nook dropped to 21.2% from about 23%, according to IDC.
Amazon is barely holding onto half the market. Since they are the most 'indie-friendly' ebookstore, that is bad on one hand... on the other, it is good not to have a market dominance.
I blogged before don't count on keeping the market lead. For example, For the last 3 months in the US Android cell phones have outsold iPhones two to one. I'm surprised to see B&N and Kindle both lost market share. I'm wondering who gained? (Google? Apple? With Boarders going kaput, I doubt it was Kobo and Microsoft dropped their initiative.)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
This doesn't include tablets.
The above sales figures show that ereaders sell ok in the 1st and 2nd quarters but are really a back to school and holiday phenomenon. 1H2011 11.4Million out of 25 to 30 million (e-ink). I suspect we'll see another 5 million LCD ereaders in 2011. So the 2nd half of the year is about 2/3rds of the sales. Hence why Amazon is waiting on their new ereaders, tablet, and B&N the rumored new Nook tablet right before the holidays.
I'm big into cell phones as 'convenience readers.' We recently returned from a cruise and for every reader on a Kindle, I saw one on a smartphone, one on a tablet (almost all iPads, a few Samsungs, but not many), and three to five playing games on their cellphones or tablets. :( And for each Kindle reader two reading pbooks. :) Mind you, it was a Disney cruise, so lots of waiting in line. ;)
So only somewhat related, Microsoft's phone strategy baffles me. February is too late for Nokia. B&N showed how it should be done. The nook color October 2010, Nook simple-touch in
updated 12:40pm
I found this bit interesting:
But global shipments of e-book readers experienced a seasonal dip in the second-quarter, according to IDC. Shipments reached nearly six million units in first-quarter 2011, but shipments in the second quarter totaled 5.4 million units, up 167% on-year but down 9.2% on-quarter.
Amazon Kindle's market share slid to 51.7% in the second-quarter from about 53% in the first, while Barnes & Noble's Nook dropped to 21.2% from about 23%, according to IDC.
Amazon is barely holding onto half the market. Since they are the most 'indie-friendly' ebookstore, that is bad on one hand... on the other, it is good not to have a market dominance.
I blogged before don't count on keeping the market lead. For example, For the last 3 months in the US Android cell phones have outsold iPhones two to one. I'm surprised to see B&N and Kindle both lost market share. I'm wondering who gained? (Google? Apple? With Boarders going kaput, I doubt it was Kobo and Microsoft dropped their initiative.)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
This doesn't include tablets.
The above sales figures show that ereaders sell ok in the 1st and 2nd quarters but are really a back to school and holiday phenomenon. 1H2011 11.4Million out of 25 to 30 million (e-ink). I suspect we'll see another 5 million LCD ereaders in 2011. So the 2nd half of the year is about 2/3rds of the sales. Hence why Amazon is waiting on their new ereaders, tablet, and B&N the rumored new Nook tablet right before the holidays.
I'm big into cell phones as 'convenience readers.' We recently returned from a cruise and for every reader on a Kindle, I saw one on a smartphone, one on a tablet (almost all iPads, a few Samsungs, but not many), and three to five playing games on their cellphones or tablets. :( And for each Kindle reader two reading pbooks. :) Mind you, it was a Disney cruise, so lots of waiting in line. ;)
So only somewhat related, Microsoft's phone strategy baffles me. February is too late for Nokia. B&N showed how it should be done. The nook color October 2010, Nook simple-touch in
updated 12:40pm
Monday, August 8, 2011
How ereaders will become cheaper
We discuss the sub $100 ereader in the comment section of various blogs, but the question should be "how can anyone sell a cheap ereader?"
1. Economy of scale. E-ink inc. is increasing shipments
25million to 30million ereaders plus the Nook color and other device reading! Plus a new factory coming online...
2. Touch screens are the most costly component for many of the devices. Two finger and other low cost touchscreen solutions will be popular with ereaders.
3. Frame costs among other components A $5 savings might not sound like much, but it adds up.
4. Weak chip sales estimates for 3q2011 should reduce the build costs. Next year it will be the new 28nm chip manufacturing process.
5. Software profits (e.g., for Amazon, B&N, and Apple) Do I really need a link for my typical audience? In the long run the profit will be in the media, not the device. Thus vendors will cut profits.
6. Size. I wonder why no vendor has come out with a fractionally smaller e-reader? There is nothing magical about 6" or 7" screens. Oh, 3.5" is too small (too many page turns), but some middle ground would sell.
7. Cell Phones. Sales of these are exploding. Why isn't there an ereader cellphone subsidized by the carriers? Seriously, we've already had the 3G e-readers for $189. Increase the battery size a little and the ereader could be a free cellphone with data plan on any US cellphone network.
In conclusion:
I keep reusing this link. One item to note again and again is the 'elastic market' of ereaders. Look at the bottom of page 22. Currently over 53% of the potential ereader buyers are 'priced out' of the market. Note: That isn't the only growth; there is a huge market considering ereaders who remain on the fence. Ideas like Amazon's offers will further cut the price.
Ereaders are an elastic market. While some of us want higher end devices, there needs to be a gateway drug.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
1. Economy of scale. E-ink inc. is increasing shipments
25million to 30million ereaders plus the Nook color and other device reading! Plus a new factory coming online...
2. Touch screens are the most costly component for many of the devices. Two finger and other low cost touchscreen solutions will be popular with ereaders.
3. Frame costs among other components A $5 savings might not sound like much, but it adds up.
4. Weak chip sales estimates for 3q2011 should reduce the build costs. Next year it will be the new 28nm chip manufacturing process.
5. Software profits (e.g., for Amazon, B&N, and Apple) Do I really need a link for my typical audience? In the long run the profit will be in the media, not the device. Thus vendors will cut profits.
6. Size. I wonder why no vendor has come out with a fractionally smaller e-reader? There is nothing magical about 6" or 7" screens. Oh, 3.5" is too small (too many page turns), but some middle ground would sell.
7. Cell Phones. Sales of these are exploding. Why isn't there an ereader cellphone subsidized by the carriers? Seriously, we've already had the 3G e-readers for $189. Increase the battery size a little and the ereader could be a free cellphone with data plan on any US cellphone network.
In conclusion:
I keep reusing this link. One item to note again and again is the 'elastic market' of ereaders. Look at the bottom of page 22. Currently over 53% of the potential ereader buyers are 'priced out' of the market. Note: That isn't the only growth; there is a huge market considering ereaders who remain on the fence. Ideas like Amazon's offers will further cut the price.
Ereaders are an elastic market. While some of us want higher end devices, there needs to be a gateway drug.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Don't count on keeping the lead
Companies like to tout past or current market share as if it could never drop.
GM peaked at 51% of the US auto market
Nokia once held 35% of the US cell phone market (and I found poor links that claimed the 35% peak for global cell phones too) and once was a force to be dealt with.
The cell phone market is a great example. Once dominant companies are fading fast. Google 'Amazon tablet' in the news section and one hears plenty of rumors. Here is what matters:
1. Google missed the touchscreen market and gave that to B&N and perhaps others.
2. Google missed the demand for a multi function tablet
But here is a key, we already know more ereaders have been bought than tablets. Why? Price, weight, ease of reading, battery life, and simplicity of use (in order of why I believe they were bought).
Amazon needs to slow the growth of opposing ereaders. This means launching new devices at low price points. Amazon also needs to tap into a *large* app market. Hence the Android rumors...
Apple needs to launch new devices at lower price points. For readers this means a smaller and lighter device than the IPad2 with a more readable screen than the 3.5" IPhone. Rumors are Amazon will counter with a 6" touchscreen... Cheap and readable... I'm curious to see Job's new products this Christmas.
Both should either launch new subsidiaries (e.g., Amazon India) or form partnerships (Google with Android with Samsung, HTC, MMI, ZTC, Sony, your uncle Joe, and probably Amazon.) All it takes is one partner to pull the others into a larger market...
The next few years will be huge for ereaders. For now, it seems to be the English reader market; I suspect due to book supply. The winner will be the one who can supply the most books in a way that is easy to connect the reader (buyer) with the book being sold.
My main point is *all* of the ereader competitors have become complacent. B&N seems to be the most nimble on devices, but where is their entry into more foreign markets? Kobo seems to be the most nimble internationally; they just need to get the name out. Amazon's Kindle and Apple's products have 'mindshare,' now offer more devices to 'grow from strength.'
I'm curious to see what hits the market this back to school season and Christmas.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
GM peaked at 51% of the US auto market
Nokia once held 35% of the US cell phone market (and I found poor links that claimed the 35% peak for global cell phones too) and once was a force to be dealt with.
The cell phone market is a great example. Once dominant companies are fading fast. Google 'Amazon tablet' in the news section and one hears plenty of rumors. Here is what matters:
1. Google missed the touchscreen market and gave that to B&N and perhaps others.
2. Google missed the demand for a multi function tablet
But here is a key, we already know more ereaders have been bought than tablets. Why? Price, weight, ease of reading, battery life, and simplicity of use (in order of why I believe they were bought).
Amazon needs to slow the growth of opposing ereaders. This means launching new devices at low price points. Amazon also needs to tap into a *large* app market. Hence the Android rumors...
Apple needs to launch new devices at lower price points. For readers this means a smaller and lighter device than the IPad2 with a more readable screen than the 3.5" IPhone. Rumors are Amazon will counter with a 6" touchscreen... Cheap and readable... I'm curious to see Job's new products this Christmas.
Both should either launch new subsidiaries (e.g., Amazon India) or form partnerships (Google with Android with Samsung, HTC, MMI, ZTC, Sony, your uncle Joe, and probably Amazon.) All it takes is one partner to pull the others into a larger market...
The next few years will be huge for ereaders. For now, it seems to be the English reader market; I suspect due to book supply. The winner will be the one who can supply the most books in a way that is easy to connect the reader (buyer) with the book being sold.
My main point is *all* of the ereader competitors have become complacent. B&N seems to be the most nimble on devices, but where is their entry into more foreign markets? Kobo seems to be the most nimble internationally; they just need to get the name out. Amazon's Kindle and Apple's products have 'mindshare,' now offer more devices to 'grow from strength.'
I'm curious to see what hits the market this back to school season and Christmas.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Foxcon will be making a lot of Kindles!
Digitimes delivers another scoop
In addition to the new tablet PC orders, Foxconn currently is also likely to produce 12 million units of Kindles for Amazon,
Ok, you can read more about the tablets, for ebook enthusiasts, the important number is the quantity of Kindles being bought (to be sold to you and me).
Oh, I'm excited about the tablets and the potential for a Kindle phone. But for now, that is speculation. Knowing Amazon will keep producing Kindles in quantity is a find. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
In addition to the new tablet PC orders, Foxconn currently is also likely to produce 12 million units of Kindles for Amazon,
Ok, you can read more about the tablets, for ebook enthusiasts, the important number is the quantity of Kindles being bought (to be sold to you and me).
Oh, I'm excited about the tablets and the potential for a Kindle phone. But for now, that is speculation. Knowing Amazon will keep producing Kindles in quantity is a find. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sunday, July 10, 2011
Bells tolling for textbooks?
Most of my friends with young kids are concerned about the weight of textbooks their children must lug around. More than a few went to the expense of buying 2nd sets of texts so there was never that panic ride back to the school locker. Now, more and more schools are putting the relevant text and homework online, at least here in Southern California.
What I post I do not post lightly. A friend of ours, through our older daughter, was laid off from a textbook related job recently.
South Korea is initiating a switch to ebook textbooks. Now, it wouldn't surprise me if South Korea is helping fund Samsung and LG to develop a better 'textbook tablet.' Oh wait, a country actually getting behind industry to help found a new industry? Wow...
I wonder how long it will take the US to follow? 2014 is a long way off...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
What I post I do not post lightly. A friend of ours, through our older daughter, was laid off from a textbook related job recently.
South Korea is initiating a switch to ebook textbooks. Now, it wouldn't surprise me if South Korea is helping fund Samsung and LG to develop a better 'textbook tablet.' Oh wait, a country actually getting behind industry to help found a new industry? Wow...
I wonder how long it will take the US to follow? 2014 is a long way off...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Monday, July 4, 2011
Future of ereaders
I've over-used this link. It comes up again to point out why ereader growth will be excellent this holiday season. If you will, a rebuttal to the publisher FUD:
With the WSJ publishing another "beware the slushpile article," (ht JA Konrath's blog comments). Here is the deal, the #1 resistance is price.
I suspect for years to come the bulk of ereaders will be given as gifts. I really have trouble seeing gifts > $100 for anyone but a parent, close sibling, spouse, or child; let's call this 'group #1.' But many won't give > $100 gifts. Hence why I think the LeapPad is $99 (but the books are $25!).
For Nephews and nieces and a few others in what I'll call 'group #2', I can see $70 being a gift limit. For this group, 'with special offers' becomes practical; while with 'group #1' I suspect it would look bad to give a discounted gift 'with offers.' For many, $50 will be the limit for this group.
See Fig. 11 of my first link. Only 46% are willing to buy ereaders at today's prices ($139 w/o offers); that doesn't mean 46% of the potential has bought an e-reader (that will take while). I suspect for gifts, the 'willing price' drops a little for anyone not special enough in group #1, we'll see more price resistance. Per Fig. 11, ereader sales open the 'potential market' by ~80% at sub< $100 (46% to 79% is about 80% market growth); don't forget not all of the current market is an early adopter.
So we *need* that $99 Kindle/Nook in 2011. :) Honestly, I suspect $70 is the true price barrier. e.g. The dash alarm clock at its normal price of almost $100 isn't a great alarm clock. But at $70, it became my father's day gift. A similar 'price resistance' will be true with e-readers.
Citibank analyst is predicting 17.5M Kindles in 2011. I think, like every other Kindle sales estimate so far, that this prediction is going to understate the market.
Note: I expect the rumored Kindle tablet to really shake up the market. I *really* would be enjoying a device where I could blog in 'glaring light' right now. Mirasol or e-ink, I'm ready for a tablet with a bluetooth keyboard that works in light LCDs are 'washed out.'
I see a market splitting in multiple markets (as all mature markets do). IMHO, e-ink or other 'glare friendly' technologies will dominate reading devices. LCD is just too much an 'office light' device.
1. Dedicated, cheap, and light e-readers. The 6" format will probably hold on. However, if the LeapPad's 5" works, I see no reason a smaller form factor won't be adopted at the lower price points. :)
2. E-reader phones at both the 5" and 7" form factor. IMHO, these devices are required for a fast boost to US e-reader adoption.
3. 7" and to a lesser extent (due to weight) 10% tablets utilized for dual purpose.
The less 'ideal' a reader, the more the device will be used for 'convenience reading' (e.g., I see this at the pediatrician and parks with smartphones) or by people who read less than 20 books per year who want a multi-purpose device.
Ereading will grow. Expect customers to be outside playing this time of year and not browsing for a new electronic toy. But as soon as the weather turns south...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps
Anyone else suspect that ereading was granted a 'leg up' by the unusually long winter this year in the Northeast US?
With the WSJ publishing another "beware the slushpile article," (ht JA Konrath's blog comments). Here is the deal, the #1 resistance is price.
I suspect for years to come the bulk of ereaders will be given as gifts. I really have trouble seeing gifts > $100 for anyone but a parent, close sibling, spouse, or child; let's call this 'group #1.' But many won't give > $100 gifts. Hence why I think the LeapPad is $99 (but the books are $25!).
For Nephews and nieces and a few others in what I'll call 'group #2', I can see $70 being a gift limit. For this group, 'with special offers' becomes practical; while with 'group #1' I suspect it would look bad to give a discounted gift 'with offers.' For many, $50 will be the limit for this group.
See Fig. 11 of my first link. Only 46% are willing to buy ereaders at today's prices ($139 w/o offers); that doesn't mean 46% of the potential has bought an e-reader (that will take while). I suspect for gifts, the 'willing price' drops a little for anyone not special enough in group #1, we'll see more price resistance. Per Fig. 11, ereader sales open the 'potential market' by ~80% at sub< $100 (46% to 79% is about 80% market growth); don't forget not all of the current market is an early adopter.
So we *need* that $99 Kindle/Nook in 2011. :) Honestly, I suspect $70 is the true price barrier. e.g. The dash alarm clock at its normal price of almost $100 isn't a great alarm clock. But at $70, it became my father's day gift. A similar 'price resistance' will be true with e-readers.
Citibank analyst is predicting 17.5M Kindles in 2011. I think, like every other Kindle sales estimate so far, that this prediction is going to understate the market.
Note: I expect the rumored Kindle tablet to really shake up the market. I *really* would be enjoying a device where I could blog in 'glaring light' right now. Mirasol or e-ink, I'm ready for a tablet with a bluetooth keyboard that works in light LCDs are 'washed out.'
I see a market splitting in multiple markets (as all mature markets do). IMHO, e-ink or other 'glare friendly' technologies will dominate reading devices. LCD is just too much an 'office light' device.
1. Dedicated, cheap, and light e-readers. The 6" format will probably hold on. However, if the LeapPad's 5" works, I see no reason a smaller form factor won't be adopted at the lower price points. :)
2. E-reader phones at both the 5" and 7" form factor. IMHO, these devices are required for a fast boost to US e-reader adoption.
3. 7" and to a lesser extent (due to weight) 10% tablets utilized for dual purpose.
The less 'ideal' a reader, the more the device will be used for 'convenience reading' (e.g., I see this at the pediatrician and parks with smartphones) or by people who read less than 20 books per year who want a multi-purpose device.
Ereading will grow. Expect customers to be outside playing this time of year and not browsing for a new electronic toy. But as soon as the weather turns south...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps
Anyone else suspect that ereading was granted a 'leg up' by the unusually long winter this year in the Northeast US?
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Just a comment on devices and Market Share
There is a bit of a 'reality distortion field' when it comes to devices that read ebooks.
The breakdown by market share (approximate):
Amazon: 50%
B&N: 26%
Sony: 8%
Apple: 8%
Everyone else is fighting over the last 8%. In other words, Kobo (Borders), Google, and others are working for a fraction of the pie that sums up to the 3rd place tie. I'm going to blog less about those participants (unless I see fast growth).
Why does this matter? New devices spike market share as those that 'waited on the sideline' buy and load up with ebooks. I'm going to avoid the discussion about readers stocking up (as I dusted off a box of pbooks form the garage to pull a few into the TBR pile), but rather talk about the impact.
While Amazon has been losing market share, they are still the top dog. If you're selling ebooks, you want Amazon to launch new devices. If Amazon doesn't launch a new device, you really want Barnes and Noble to launch a new device. I expect the new Nook simple will increase the B&N market share; I'm not sure if it will be at the expense of Amazon or the 'other' category.
The last note is Apple. Note how low their market share is despite the success of their devices. I suspect it is due to the demographic Apple sells to; their customers can afford a Kindle or Nook as the dedicated e-reader and utilize their iOS device as the 'occasional e-reader.'
Lately, I'm seeing a few trends:
1. Adult 'kids' buying their elder parents e-readers for large type access. I'm seeing about a "70% success rate." What I mean is that about 30% of those gifted an e-reader... Don't pick up their reading. :( It seems the Nook color is *not* the gift for this crowd. (Note; The Nook color is *hot* among other demographics... I think it is weight for the 70+ crowd.)
2. Nook color buying for kid books.
3. IPad for kid books.
4. Occasional (smartphone) ebook readers are buying dedicated readers. A quick survey of friends shows that they are happier with the Kindle app on the cell phone and that is driving their e-reader purchase.
Personally, I think the first 'major brand' $99 e-reader (that isn't junk) will help spike the market. But only if the 'major brand' is Amazon, B&N, Sony, or Apple; anyone else would be lacking 'cheerleaders' to help spike ebook sales and I'm not sure Sony's cheerleaders would be aggressive enough. :( (I want competition in ereaders; competition improves the breed.) :)
I rather hope for a new set of Amazon ereaders for back to school. Hopefully in multiple formats: cell phone, tablets, 'Kindle simple', and I hope for one 'neat surprise.'
I was pleasantly surprised by last month's AAP pbook sales. However, judging by comments Amazon made earlier... I'm suspecting April will favor ebooks. As I noted before, usually the later the AAP releases data, the worse the story for pbooks. We're past the tipping point. The question is how fast we tip.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
The breakdown by market share (approximate):
Amazon: 50%
B&N: 26%
Sony: 8%
Apple: 8%
Everyone else is fighting over the last 8%. In other words, Kobo (Borders), Google, and others are working for a fraction of the pie that sums up to the 3rd place tie. I'm going to blog less about those participants (unless I see fast growth).
Why does this matter? New devices spike market share as those that 'waited on the sideline' buy and load up with ebooks. I'm going to avoid the discussion about readers stocking up (as I dusted off a box of pbooks form the garage to pull a few into the TBR pile), but rather talk about the impact.
While Amazon has been losing market share, they are still the top dog. If you're selling ebooks, you want Amazon to launch new devices. If Amazon doesn't launch a new device, you really want Barnes and Noble to launch a new device. I expect the new Nook simple will increase the B&N market share; I'm not sure if it will be at the expense of Amazon or the 'other' category.
The last note is Apple. Note how low their market share is despite the success of their devices. I suspect it is due to the demographic Apple sells to; their customers can afford a Kindle or Nook as the dedicated e-reader and utilize their iOS device as the 'occasional e-reader.'
Lately, I'm seeing a few trends:
1. Adult 'kids' buying their elder parents e-readers for large type access. I'm seeing about a "70% success rate." What I mean is that about 30% of those gifted an e-reader... Don't pick up their reading. :( It seems the Nook color is *not* the gift for this crowd. (Note; The Nook color is *hot* among other demographics... I think it is weight for the 70+ crowd.)
2. Nook color buying for kid books.
3. IPad for kid books.
4. Occasional (smartphone) ebook readers are buying dedicated readers. A quick survey of friends shows that they are happier with the Kindle app on the cell phone and that is driving their e-reader purchase.
Personally, I think the first 'major brand' $99 e-reader (that isn't junk) will help spike the market. But only if the 'major brand' is Amazon, B&N, Sony, or Apple; anyone else would be lacking 'cheerleaders' to help spike ebook sales and I'm not sure Sony's cheerleaders would be aggressive enough. :( (I want competition in ereaders; competition improves the breed.) :)
I rather hope for a new set of Amazon ereaders for back to school. Hopefully in multiple formats: cell phone, tablets, 'Kindle simple', and I hope for one 'neat surprise.'
I was pleasantly surprised by last month's AAP pbook sales. However, judging by comments Amazon made earlier... I'm suspecting April will favor ebooks. As I noted before, usually the later the AAP releases data, the worse the story for pbooks. We're past the tipping point. The question is how fast we tip.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Friday, May 27, 2011
New Ereaders and "Power Buyers"
Tiss the season for everyone *but* Amazon to launch new hardware:
Kobo Touch
Nook Simple
IPad2
Large form factor Android Phones
While the "Special Offers" kindles will sell well, they are *nothing* to encourage a K2 owner to upgrade.
But we'll also see a tremendous amount of ereading on upcoming devices:
Amazon ereader tablets and phones (By Xmas?)
Other Android tablets (Sony, Asus, Acer, Dell, Motorola, Toshiba, Samsung, LG, HTC, Lenovo, etc.)
More large form factor smartphones
Heck, Microsoft might actually get in the game too (snicker)
Let’s not forget Sony is big in international ebooks. So while I haven’t heard of a new ereader from them, I expect them to update their product.
Devices equal ebook sales. :)
Link on ebook buying
““Power buyers,” who buy at least one e-book a week, represent about 18 percent of the total people buying e-books today, but they buy 61 percent of all e-books purchased.” As ebooks mature, more and more readers will not be ‘power buyers.’ Look at those numbers. In print, power buyers buy 70% of the books. It is less for ebooks; that strongly implies that ebooks are bringing in casual/convenience reader sales.
I know, by name, just over a dozen parents who ‘convenience read’ on their phones or tablets who otherwise would have dropped out of the book market. That is great! That is a few individuals who otherwise would have forgotten the ‘reading habit.’ Now they are instead utilizing tech to stay 'connected' with books. Once their kids grow up, they’ll probably drift back to being ‘power buyers’ of books instead of just being TV junkies.
If it seems like I'm being hard on Amazon, I am. Where is the new reader? Once a year product updates do not work in a fast growing market such as ebooks unless one expects to forfeit market share; as Amazon has certainly done. Certain customers have a strong preference for touchscreens; while I would want to see the K3 continue, Amazon must invest in new hardware.
My group of friends is defecting to the Nook Color or IPad for the kiddie ebooks. That means touchscreen, color, and sound. But here is the market opportunity for Amazon: these kiddie ebooks are locked onto one device and *no one* likes that. The Nook app does not play Nook color kiddie ebooks. (We tried.) Apple apps are locked onto iOS devices... If Amazon is clever and upgrades the Kindle app (when they release touchscreen) to be far more flexible, they'll take that market in under six months. For parents want mom and dad's cellphones, tablets, and computers to all play the book (as kids have zero understanding why the book isn't available).
The point of this article is to show that ebook growth is about to take off due to the excitement generated by new devices for ereading. In many ways, I'm most excited about large smartphones as those toys seem to be 'pulling back' readers into the habit thanks to 'convenience reading.' Tablets will help that trend too.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Kobo Touch
Nook Simple
IPad2
Large form factor Android Phones
While the "Special Offers" kindles will sell well, they are *nothing* to encourage a K2 owner to upgrade.
But we'll also see a tremendous amount of ereading on upcoming devices:
Amazon ereader tablets and phones (By Xmas?)
Other Android tablets (Sony, Asus, Acer, Dell, Motorola, Toshiba, Samsung, LG, HTC, Lenovo, etc.)
More large form factor smartphones
Heck, Microsoft might actually get in the game too (snicker)
Let’s not forget Sony is big in international ebooks. So while I haven’t heard of a new ereader from them, I expect them to update their product.
Devices equal ebook sales. :)
Link on ebook buying
““Power buyers,” who buy at least one e-book a week, represent about 18 percent of the total people buying e-books today, but they buy 61 percent of all e-books purchased.” As ebooks mature, more and more readers will not be ‘power buyers.’ Look at those numbers. In print, power buyers buy 70% of the books. It is less for ebooks; that strongly implies that ebooks are bringing in casual/convenience reader sales.
I know, by name, just over a dozen parents who ‘convenience read’ on their phones or tablets who otherwise would have dropped out of the book market. That is great! That is a few individuals who otherwise would have forgotten the ‘reading habit.’ Now they are instead utilizing tech to stay 'connected' with books. Once their kids grow up, they’ll probably drift back to being ‘power buyers’ of books instead of just being TV junkies.
If it seems like I'm being hard on Amazon, I am. Where is the new reader? Once a year product updates do not work in a fast growing market such as ebooks unless one expects to forfeit market share; as Amazon has certainly done. Certain customers have a strong preference for touchscreens; while I would want to see the K3 continue, Amazon must invest in new hardware.
My group of friends is defecting to the Nook Color or IPad for the kiddie ebooks. That means touchscreen, color, and sound. But here is the market opportunity for Amazon: these kiddie ebooks are locked onto one device and *no one* likes that. The Nook app does not play Nook color kiddie ebooks. (We tried.) Apple apps are locked onto iOS devices... If Amazon is clever and upgrades the Kindle app (when they release touchscreen) to be far more flexible, they'll take that market in under six months. For parents want mom and dad's cellphones, tablets, and computers to all play the book (as kids have zero understanding why the book isn't available).
The point of this article is to show that ebook growth is about to take off due to the excitement generated by new devices for ereading. In many ways, I'm most excited about large smartphones as those toys seem to be 'pulling back' readers into the habit thanks to 'convenience reading.' Tablets will help that trend too.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Monday, May 9, 2011
Ereaders in Europe
Ereader adoption has been US focused to date. But growth in Europe is now on a healthy uptick. 1.9 million Ereaders in 2010. I take the prediction for 9.6 million in 2015 with a grain of salt. Why? Ereadering has consistently outgrown any published prediction that I've seen!
I love how 'journalists' who do not read are always predicting a cap on ebooks and ereader demand. Why? Here I have one link that shows how HUGE the untapped market is.
Oh, 9.6 million by 2015 is very conservative (for Europe). I'd bet we will cross that line in 2012! :) Note: That isn't a quadrupling of ebook sales. The first buyers will be the most 'intense readers.' In 2012, ereaders will be picked up by those who 'only read' 12 to 20 a year.
Of course, if *someone* would please come out with an Android e-ink phone with a 5" or 6" screen, we could rewrite our expectations of ereader sales towards the upside. Even further if someone finally launches e-ink that can do 720 video. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I love how 'journalists' who do not read are always predicting a cap on ebooks and ereader demand. Why? Here I have one link that shows how HUGE the untapped market is.
Oh, 9.6 million by 2015 is very conservative (for Europe). I'd bet we will cross that line in 2012! :) Note: That isn't a quadrupling of ebook sales. The first buyers will be the most 'intense readers.' In 2012, ereaders will be picked up by those who 'only read' 12 to 20 a year.
Of course, if *someone* would please come out with an Android e-ink phone with a 5" or 6" screen, we could rewrite our expectations of ereader sales towards the upside. Even further if someone finally launches e-ink that can do 720 video. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Devices for ebooks
I love ebooks. I love how they can be read on multiple devices. I'm excited how quickly the 'enabling technology' is progressing; money flowing into a sector always does that. :)
Part of this is the CPU/wireless chips and expanding integration. I'm not going to go into the details, but there are chips out there I'm truly excited about what they offer the consumer from: Nvidia, Freescale, Qualcomm, TI, and Samsung/Apple. Some has to do with reduced cost (Freescale & Qualcomm), and some has to with the performance. (I would love to be able to watch movies on my e-reader too.) Billions are being spent in this area. This will provide hundreds of millions of new ebook capable devices. :)
The number of people I know 'catching a book' on their smartphone (mostly 4"+ screen Androids) is staggering. (I'm aware of more people reading on 4" Android than Kindle and Nook +Nook color combined!) As the volume increases, the screen cost and quality will only improve. :) I'm also looking forward to an e-ink/lcd screen combo smartphone. (Again, combine a great e-reader with movies.)
I've been seeing Kindles in the wild more than ever. I used to be the only one to bring one to my favorite dinner... Now I'm one of a handful. :) One lady at my daughter's ballet class is very notable with the Kindle DX. Intense readers will stick with the Kindle. The bulk of the Kindles I've seen were purchased/gifted recently (as in December or more recently).
In my opinion, low cost tablets will be the bulk of casual e-reader growth in 2011 and 2012. In this category I include the successful Nook Color. Too many people realize that tablets are going to progress too quickly to expect to utilize one more than 2 years and that means they'll buy cheap.
I know quite a few people who read on the IPad. We have an IPad and really like it but learned how limited its capabilities really are when its 'host computer' crashed last weekend. :(
This rambling article has one point: there will be hundreds of millions of new ereader devices delivered to customers over the next few years. Most casual readers will read off devices bought 'for other purposes.' The hot devices of today will look quaint or over-priced in six months; so all companies will have to create new products and drive cost out of existing products.
So those who lock onto the meme of ebooks being limited to 50% market growth need to wake up and smell the touchscreen. Good weather will slow device sales... but once Fall hits, expect there to be a renewed push from pbooks to ebooks.
Its an exciting time for ebook authors. Good luck to you!
Neil
Part of this is the CPU/wireless chips and expanding integration. I'm not going to go into the details, but there are chips out there I'm truly excited about what they offer the consumer from: Nvidia, Freescale, Qualcomm, TI, and Samsung/Apple. Some has to do with reduced cost (Freescale & Qualcomm), and some has to with the performance. (I would love to be able to watch movies on my e-reader too.) Billions are being spent in this area. This will provide hundreds of millions of new ebook capable devices. :)
The number of people I know 'catching a book' on their smartphone (mostly 4"+ screen Androids) is staggering. (I'm aware of more people reading on 4" Android than Kindle and Nook +Nook color combined!) As the volume increases, the screen cost and quality will only improve. :) I'm also looking forward to an e-ink/lcd screen combo smartphone. (Again, combine a great e-reader with movies.)
I've been seeing Kindles in the wild more than ever. I used to be the only one to bring one to my favorite dinner... Now I'm one of a handful. :) One lady at my daughter's ballet class is very notable with the Kindle DX. Intense readers will stick with the Kindle. The bulk of the Kindles I've seen were purchased/gifted recently (as in December or more recently).
In my opinion, low cost tablets will be the bulk of casual e-reader growth in 2011 and 2012. In this category I include the successful Nook Color. Too many people realize that tablets are going to progress too quickly to expect to utilize one more than 2 years and that means they'll buy cheap.
I know quite a few people who read on the IPad. We have an IPad and really like it but learned how limited its capabilities really are when its 'host computer' crashed last weekend. :(
This rambling article has one point: there will be hundreds of millions of new ereader devices delivered to customers over the next few years. Most casual readers will read off devices bought 'for other purposes.' The hot devices of today will look quaint or over-priced in six months; so all companies will have to create new products and drive cost out of existing products.
So those who lock onto the meme of ebooks being limited to 50% market growth need to wake up and smell the touchscreen. Good weather will slow device sales... but once Fall hits, expect there to be a renewed push from pbooks to ebooks.
Its an exciting time for ebook authors. Good luck to you!
Neil
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Link on Ereader sales (last year 3rd quarter)
Nice link on 3Q2010 Ereader market share.
Note: The link ignores the IPad and Smartphones and only talks dedicated e-readers.
So some food for thought:
41.5% were Amazon Kindles with
16.1% were Pandigital (Who?!?)
16.5% were the Nook (Barnes and Noble)
8.4% were the Sony Ereader
8.2% were the Havon Wisereader (who? Apparently sold in China)
Now this is prior to the Nook Color. So I expect B&N is solidly up at #2 despite the low international presence (this is a global market share, not US market share).
I personally chuckle at the 15 million ereader sales predicted in 2011. It will be higher (despite tablets and the popularity).
Yet from that time Amazon had 76% ebook market share in the US.
So this implies:
1. Amazon is losing out in some international markets (China is certainly going to be a weak point.)
2. Applications are almost certainly a substantial part of the ebook market (no duh...)
#2 is important. I personally think that if ebooks in one form are not available on a preponderance of devices, that format will find 'growth resistance.' e.g., where is the iBookstore app for the PC?
I wish the data didn't have such a huge time lag...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Note: The link ignores the IPad and Smartphones and only talks dedicated e-readers.
So some food for thought:
41.5% were Amazon Kindles with
16.1% were Pandigital (Who?!?)
16.5% were the Nook (Barnes and Noble)
8.4% were the Sony Ereader
8.2% were the Havon Wisereader (who? Apparently sold in China)
Now this is prior to the Nook Color. So I expect B&N is solidly up at #2 despite the low international presence (this is a global market share, not US market share).
I personally chuckle at the 15 million ereader sales predicted in 2011. It will be higher (despite tablets and the popularity).
Yet from that time Amazon had 76% ebook market share in the US.
So this implies:
1. Amazon is losing out in some international markets (China is certainly going to be a weak point.)
2. Applications are almost certainly a substantial part of the ebook market (no duh...)
#2 is important. I personally think that if ebooks in one form are not available on a preponderance of devices, that format will find 'growth resistance.' e.g., where is the iBookstore app for the PC?
I wish the data didn't have such a huge time lag...
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Ereader 1st 2011 update
Hardware sales precede software (ebook) sales. I only have one 'number,' but a little discussion is in order:
Nook Color sales approach 3 million. It seems like yesterday the nook color was launched. I suspect the Nook Color is now the most popular ereader among my various extended social groups with the Kindle a close 2nd.
The IPad2 is doing well, but I know fewer 'readers' buying IPads and more Video junkies. Any have any good links on stats? The IPad1 seems to have sold to 40% readers... I'm estimating the IPad2 is 25% to 30% readers buying the device (the rest are for video or other apps).
I'm amazed at the number of coworkers (I'm in a large traveling group) who read on large screen smartphones (mostly Android) or IPod touches. Individuals who probably had taken a 5 to 10 year 'sabatical on reading.' This area is expanding the ebook market compared to the pbook market. I used to consider this as only a 'gateway market.' I now realize that smartphones will permanently be a large chunk of the ebook market. Considering how quickly the various companies sell 100 million smartphones (in less than 90 days now), this part of the market will expand dramatically.
I wonder if the Kindle tablet rumors are real? I'm waiting for a 7" e-ink tablet/phone combo to replace my IPod, cell phone, and personal laptop on trips. :) (Hint Amazon!)
I'm not hearing much about Kindle sales... IMHO Amazon needs to drop the price *and* come out with the tablet before back to school. Until then, we're in the slow electronics selling season, so I expect the acceleration of ebook sales to be driven mostly by smartphones and tablets until back to school.
While quite a few people read on laptops and other computers... I'm not excited about the growth potential of that market. Computer based ebooks have been around for a long time and never took off. So while some individuals will continue to read on their computers, I doubt that section of the market will be a 'primary growth market.' Oh, the market will grow, but new (in 2011) computer based ereaders will be a tiny fraction of the ebook market growth. In fact, I expect most will use their computers as a secondary or tertiary reading device.
I'm predicting over $1.25 Billion in ebook sales in the US, including indie authors, in 2011. To reach that goal, about an additional 100 million reading devices need to reach consumers. Between Smartphones, Tablets, IPods, and ereaders, that is an easy target.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps
Indie author market share.
1. 'Boutique' ebooks were 10% of the ebook market in December 2009. I take this to be Indie/small publisher ebook market share.
2. My browsing of the best seller lists on Amazon came up with a 20% Indie/small publisher market share of ebooks in December 2010.
3. I'm doing a linear extrapolation to 30% Indie/small publisher market share for December 2011 until I see better information. Judging by how many indie ebook authors can now make a living selling ebooks, we could be at 30% today! But I prefer to keep my estimates on the low side.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Nook Color sales approach 3 million. It seems like yesterday the nook color was launched. I suspect the Nook Color is now the most popular ereader among my various extended social groups with the Kindle a close 2nd.
The IPad2 is doing well, but I know fewer 'readers' buying IPads and more Video junkies. Any have any good links on stats? The IPad1 seems to have sold to 40% readers... I'm estimating the IPad2 is 25% to 30% readers buying the device (the rest are for video or other apps).
I'm amazed at the number of coworkers (I'm in a large traveling group) who read on large screen smartphones (mostly Android) or IPod touches. Individuals who probably had taken a 5 to 10 year 'sabatical on reading.' This area is expanding the ebook market compared to the pbook market. I used to consider this as only a 'gateway market.' I now realize that smartphones will permanently be a large chunk of the ebook market. Considering how quickly the various companies sell 100 million smartphones (in less than 90 days now), this part of the market will expand dramatically.
I wonder if the Kindle tablet rumors are real? I'm waiting for a 7" e-ink tablet/phone combo to replace my IPod, cell phone, and personal laptop on trips. :) (Hint Amazon!)
I'm not hearing much about Kindle sales... IMHO Amazon needs to drop the price *and* come out with the tablet before back to school. Until then, we're in the slow electronics selling season, so I expect the acceleration of ebook sales to be driven mostly by smartphones and tablets until back to school.
While quite a few people read on laptops and other computers... I'm not excited about the growth potential of that market. Computer based ebooks have been around for a long time and never took off. So while some individuals will continue to read on their computers, I doubt that section of the market will be a 'primary growth market.' Oh, the market will grow, but new (in 2011) computer based ereaders will be a tiny fraction of the ebook market growth. In fact, I expect most will use their computers as a secondary or tertiary reading device.
I'm predicting over $1.25 Billion in ebook sales in the US, including indie authors, in 2011. To reach that goal, about an additional 100 million reading devices need to reach consumers. Between Smartphones, Tablets, IPods, and ereaders, that is an easy target.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps
Indie author market share.
1. 'Boutique' ebooks were 10% of the ebook market in December 2009. I take this to be Indie/small publisher ebook market share.
2. My browsing of the best seller lists on Amazon came up with a 20% Indie/small publisher market share of ebooks in December 2010.
3. I'm doing a linear extrapolation to 30% Indie/small publisher market share for December 2011 until I see better information. Judging by how many indie ebook authors can now make a living selling ebooks, we could be at 30% today! But I prefer to keep my estimates on the low side.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Friday, January 14, 2011
Ereader sales in 2010, continued
2011 is going to be a gaining momentum year for ebooks. I'll use a bit of data to explain why the big change will be in 2012.
I previously added up 14 to 15 million total ereader sales in 2010. My estimate was *only* 8 million Kindle sales.
Kindle Nation Daily Has it at 11 million *total* kindles by end 2010... or 8 million in 2010.
That link predicts a doubling of Kindles in 2010. (They note, a conservative prediction.) I think it will be more than a doubling of ereaders... With many additional tablet, Ipod touch, cellphone, and 'other device' readers added. The question is how much will the ebook market grow?
I suspect it will slightly over double! Partially due to the issues with Borders. I have at least a half dozen coworkers who bought either a Kindle or Nook due to the concerns about Borders. I would have thought they would drive the extra few miles to a B&N... apparently the news has 'pushed them' to buy an ereader.
So the question is, when does the 'economy of scale' shift from print to ebooks? I'm stated before at 20% of the market, the adoption rate will accelerate.
A little math (bear with with)
~ 4 million ereaders was 3% of the market in 2009.
~ 20 million ereaders is about 10% of the market at end 2010.
So before, one needed 1.3 million ereaders for each percent of the book market.
Now, we need about 2 million additional ereaders to add a percent of market share. This actually makes sense; on average, new ereader buyers purchase and read fewer books per year.
There will be anywhere from 15 to 40 million ereaders sold in 2011. (I know... not exactly a precise prediction.) I estimate it will take 3 million ereaders for each percent of additional market share. I'm also going to assume that 20% of ereading is on 'other devices' is a constant, so I'll ignore their sales.
That implies at the end of 2011, ebooks will be from 15% to 23% of the market. There is a reason I keep predicting the 'tipping point' in 2012. It is unlikely we'll break 20% in 2011. I'd love to see 40 million ereaders sold next year. I'm not going to hold my breath. But there is one chance: a marisol or color e-ink tablet & cell phone hit the market.
I hope to be proven conservative in predicting ebook growth again. (I know assuming that other devices doesn't grow beyond 20% is keeping a large number of ebook sales out of the prediction.) This keeps us on track for ebooks to be 1/2 the market in January 2013. :) For once the 'tipping point' is hit, the market shift will be fast.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
I haven't gone into how bookstore 'consolidation' will drive customers to ebooks. I'm not really interested in 'dancing on a grave,' but it is a trend that is going to happen. I suspect 300 to 500 bookstores will close in 2011 (net, in the USA). :( The customers will go somewhere...
PPS
Note at the end of the 2nd link that for 18 of 50 of the best sellers, the ebook outsells the pbook. What happens to the 'economy of scale' of print books when that is 40+ out of 50?
Late edit 1/17/2011
Another link to 8 million Kindle sales 2010.
"Unnamed sources “aware of the company’s sales projects” apparently provided that 8-million-unit figure.
If that number proves accurate, it would greatly outpace recent predictions from research firm Gartner, which pegged worldwide e-reader sales at 6.6 million units in 2010, a 79.8 percent increase from 2009. The firm also suggested that e-reader sales will rise another 68.3 percent in 2011, to more than 11 million units.
“The connected e-reader market has grown dramatically during the past two years, driven by sales of Amazon’s e-readers, primarily in North America,” "
My new comments:
That implies we could see 13 to 15 million Kindles in 2011. :) I'm happy to see Nook, Sony, and others gaining traction.
I did not expect Sony to come in at a quarter of Amazon's ereader sales. Kudos to them. The only question that remains is the true number of 2010 Nook sales. I'm suspecting I might have been optimistic... but based off B&N sales by Indie authors, was I? Perhaps I'm just being to anal about precision. ;)
Either way, we're looking at 15 to 25 ereader sales in 2011. We'd see more if an e-ink or Marisol screen with 30hz video made its way to the market. But all this 're-analysis' does is reinforce the true tipping point is later: 2012.
I previously added up 14 to 15 million total ereader sales in 2010. My estimate was *only* 8 million Kindle sales.
Kindle Nation Daily Has it at 11 million *total* kindles by end 2010... or 8 million in 2010.
That link predicts a doubling of Kindles in 2010. (They note, a conservative prediction.) I think it will be more than a doubling of ereaders... With many additional tablet, Ipod touch, cellphone, and 'other device' readers added. The question is how much will the ebook market grow?
I suspect it will slightly over double! Partially due to the issues with Borders. I have at least a half dozen coworkers who bought either a Kindle or Nook due to the concerns about Borders. I would have thought they would drive the extra few miles to a B&N... apparently the news has 'pushed them' to buy an ereader.
So the question is, when does the 'economy of scale' shift from print to ebooks? I'm stated before at 20% of the market, the adoption rate will accelerate.
A little math (bear with with)
~ 4 million ereaders was 3% of the market in 2009.
~ 20 million ereaders is about 10% of the market at end 2010.
So before, one needed 1.3 million ereaders for each percent of the book market.
Now, we need about 2 million additional ereaders to add a percent of market share. This actually makes sense; on average, new ereader buyers purchase and read fewer books per year.
There will be anywhere from 15 to 40 million ereaders sold in 2011. (I know... not exactly a precise prediction.) I estimate it will take 3 million ereaders for each percent of additional market share. I'm also going to assume that 20% of ereading is on 'other devices' is a constant, so I'll ignore their sales.
That implies at the end of 2011, ebooks will be from 15% to 23% of the market. There is a reason I keep predicting the 'tipping point' in 2012. It is unlikely we'll break 20% in 2011. I'd love to see 40 million ereaders sold next year. I'm not going to hold my breath. But there is one chance: a marisol or color e-ink tablet & cell phone hit the market.
I hope to be proven conservative in predicting ebook growth again. (I know assuming that other devices doesn't grow beyond 20% is keeping a large number of ebook sales out of the prediction.) This keeps us on track for ebooks to be 1/2 the market in January 2013. :) For once the 'tipping point' is hit, the market shift will be fast.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
I haven't gone into how bookstore 'consolidation' will drive customers to ebooks. I'm not really interested in 'dancing on a grave,' but it is a trend that is going to happen. I suspect 300 to 500 bookstores will close in 2011 (net, in the USA). :( The customers will go somewhere...
PPS
Note at the end of the 2nd link that for 18 of 50 of the best sellers, the ebook outsells the pbook. What happens to the 'economy of scale' of print books when that is 40+ out of 50?
Late edit 1/17/2011
Another link to 8 million Kindle sales 2010.
"Unnamed sources “aware of the company’s sales projects” apparently provided that 8-million-unit figure.
If that number proves accurate, it would greatly outpace recent predictions from research firm Gartner, which pegged worldwide e-reader sales at 6.6 million units in 2010, a 79.8 percent increase from 2009. The firm also suggested that e-reader sales will rise another 68.3 percent in 2011, to more than 11 million units.
“The connected e-reader market has grown dramatically during the past two years, driven by sales of Amazon’s e-readers, primarily in North America,” "
My new comments:
That implies we could see 13 to 15 million Kindles in 2011. :) I'm happy to see Nook, Sony, and others gaining traction.
I did not expect Sony to come in at a quarter of Amazon's ereader sales. Kudos to them. The only question that remains is the true number of 2010 Nook sales. I'm suspecting I might have been optimistic... but based off B&N sales by Indie authors, was I? Perhaps I'm just being to anal about precision. ;)
Either way, we're looking at 15 to 25 ereader sales in 2011. We'd see more if an e-ink or Marisol screen with 30hz video made its way to the market. But all this 're-analysis' does is reinforce the true tipping point is later: 2012.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Start of the year thoughts on ebooks
I'm going to cover a couple of quick tidbits:
1. Indie author revenue estimate
2. Ebook market prediction
3. Alternate ereaders
Revenue Estimate
I've already blogged how I think Indie authors are 20% to 33% of ebook market share. Indie authors also charge less than the big6. Almost 1/3rd of what the big6 charge by my best quick estimate. So 1/3rd*10%*20%=0.6% of the revenue.
But that revenue is gaining quickly and soon more Indie authors will have a 'stable of books' selling in the $0.99 to $6.49 range. If you price higher, you had better have *good* and *long* novels. ;)
Ebook Market Prediction
I'm amused at how conservative this prediction is:
Founder of Smashwords is quoted as saying: " “Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US” – and account for at least a third of those books that actually get read."
I've predicted 1/3rd of the revenue for ebooks in 2012 and 50% of the revenue in January 2013. I've avoided making any definitive prediction for 2011. The diffusion of innnovation continues. I'll do more curve fitting to better bracket my predictions.
Alternate Ereaders
First, I would watch Samsung. Their first effort into ereaders isn't that exciting, but they have a history of innovating. They are also an incredibly low cost producer of electronics.
The second is the growth in tablets as ereaders. My sister and father still have Kindles, but find they read more on their Ipads. My wife has also started reading on the Ipad. The more 'intense readers' go with the Kindle App and the less intense the Ibookstore. With only one volume tablet on the market from a 'high cost' vendor, it isn't that exciting a market yet. I'm seeing the large numbers of Android tablets coming out this year, including Vizio (TV maker). So I expect tablets to be the majority of new readers in 2011. That isn't to say Kindles/Nooks will not sell well... They'll certainly sell to people who read 20+ books per year. But I think that most people will buy a tablet and then discover they can read on them. Same line of thought goes with smartphones.
Nothing wrong with gateway devices.
A survey on book reading that completely ignores "how many books do you read:"
IPad Doubles E-book Market Share
Happy New Year. I'll blog less as my work schedule is going to be *crazy* for a few weeks.
Neil
1. Indie author revenue estimate
2. Ebook market prediction
3. Alternate ereaders
Revenue Estimate
I've already blogged how I think Indie authors are 20% to 33% of ebook market share. Indie authors also charge less than the big6. Almost 1/3rd of what the big6 charge by my best quick estimate. So 1/3rd*10%*20%=0.6% of the revenue.
But that revenue is gaining quickly and soon more Indie authors will have a 'stable of books' selling in the $0.99 to $6.49 range. If you price higher, you had better have *good* and *long* novels. ;)
Ebook Market Prediction
I'm amused at how conservative this prediction is:
Founder of Smashwords is quoted as saying: " “Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US” – and account for at least a third of those books that actually get read."
I've predicted 1/3rd of the revenue for ebooks in 2012 and 50% of the revenue in January 2013. I've avoided making any definitive prediction for 2011. The diffusion of innnovation continues. I'll do more curve fitting to better bracket my predictions.
Alternate Ereaders
First, I would watch Samsung. Their first effort into ereaders isn't that exciting, but they have a history of innovating. They are also an incredibly low cost producer of electronics.
The second is the growth in tablets as ereaders. My sister and father still have Kindles, but find they read more on their Ipads. My wife has also started reading on the Ipad. The more 'intense readers' go with the Kindle App and the less intense the Ibookstore. With only one volume tablet on the market from a 'high cost' vendor, it isn't that exciting a market yet. I'm seeing the large numbers of Android tablets coming out this year, including Vizio (TV maker). So I expect tablets to be the majority of new readers in 2011. That isn't to say Kindles/Nooks will not sell well... They'll certainly sell to people who read 20+ books per year. But I think that most people will buy a tablet and then discover they can read on them. Same line of thought goes with smartphones.
Nothing wrong with gateway devices.
A survey on book reading that completely ignores "how many books do you read:"
IPad Doubles E-book Market Share
Happy New Year. I'll blog less as my work schedule is going to be *crazy* for a few weeks.
Neil
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
5.3 million K3's sold in 2010 (to date)
Please read my previous post on how I came to an estimate of 14 to 15 million ereaders sold in 2010.
I used to follow this guy in digitimes (it helped my investing):
1.6 million Kindles per month
5.3 million K3's (per the link). That is in line with the estimate of a total of 8 million Kindles in 2010. (Or only 2.7 million K2, DX, 'new DX' in 2010... plausible.)
Digitimes (including Kuo, the quoted journalist) is pretty good at 'counting chips' and thus estimating units produced/sold. Since 'chips in' = 'chips out', it produces good production volume estimates. (In particular if they have excellent intelligence on one or two key chips in a device. Intelligence this journalist always seemed to have...)
So my confidence in 14 to 15 million e-readers sold is strengthening. I remain impressed with the large quantity of ePub readers sold (Sony and Kobo) as well as Color Nooks.
Let us put it in perspective... I guessed about 10 million ereaders in 2010. My error in estimate matches ereaders sold in 2009 and half of 2008!
Let's rephrase that. I'm a pro e-book blogger and I underestimated market growth by almost the market as of December 27th 2009. :) I can live with that error.
Did anyone estimate that ereaders would sell this well? Seriously, I'm not aware of any link that was this optimistic.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps: 9:17pm on 12/29/2010:
Another link for 8 million Kinles . I like these links as maybe the 'I watch TV journalists' will finally get it that there is a crowd that wants to read and will buy devices for reading. Yes... I realize there are more dollars in TV, movies, and video games. Yawn.
My estimates for ereader sales in 2010:
Kindle: 8 million
Nook: 4 million
Sony: 2 million
Kobo: 1/2 million
Error bars make the estimate 14 to 15 million for the year.
Note: Q12011 estimated Kindle sales are 4.5 million per some 'optimistic' links:
Same Kuo link, different information
Since the Chinese new year occurs in early February... We in effect have a 2nd holiday season coming. I can see $139 K3s for birthdays, Chinese new year, etc. I also see 'Ipod touch' being another gateway to ebooks. Android/Iphone will be a HUGE gateway, and of course tablets.
I'm sticking with prior predictions of 50% of the book dollars in ebooks by January 2013 (I hate changing predictions mid-stream), but I wonder... Is the book market changing much faster than I thought? Innovation happens slow than fast.
HAVE WE HIT THE TIPPING POINT?
We won't know until we pass it. I do not think so (yet). But I'd love to be proven wrong. But I think my original post in this blog is still on the mark. We'll see the tipping point in 2012. Now I'm leaning towards Early 2012 (almost Christmas 2011...) :) Ugh... I wish November data was already available (with Indie and small publisher sales too.)
I used to follow this guy in digitimes (it helped my investing):
1.6 million Kindles per month
5.3 million K3's (per the link). That is in line with the estimate of a total of 8 million Kindles in 2010. (Or only 2.7 million K2, DX, 'new DX' in 2010... plausible.)
Digitimes (including Kuo, the quoted journalist) is pretty good at 'counting chips' and thus estimating units produced/sold. Since 'chips in' = 'chips out', it produces good production volume estimates. (In particular if they have excellent intelligence on one or two key chips in a device. Intelligence this journalist always seemed to have...)
So my confidence in 14 to 15 million e-readers sold is strengthening. I remain impressed with the large quantity of ePub readers sold (Sony and Kobo) as well as Color Nooks.
Let us put it in perspective... I guessed about 10 million ereaders in 2010. My error in estimate matches ereaders sold in 2009 and half of 2008!
Let's rephrase that. I'm a pro e-book blogger and I underestimated market growth by almost the market as of December 27th 2009. :) I can live with that error.
Did anyone estimate that ereaders would sell this well? Seriously, I'm not aware of any link that was this optimistic.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps: 9:17pm on 12/29/2010:
Another link for 8 million Kinles . I like these links as maybe the 'I watch TV journalists' will finally get it that there is a crowd that wants to read and will buy devices for reading. Yes... I realize there are more dollars in TV, movies, and video games. Yawn.
My estimates for ereader sales in 2010:
Kindle: 8 million
Nook: 4 million
Sony: 2 million
Kobo: 1/2 million
Error bars make the estimate 14 to 15 million for the year.
Note: Q12011 estimated Kindle sales are 4.5 million per some 'optimistic' links:
Same Kuo link, different information
Since the Chinese new year occurs in early February... We in effect have a 2nd holiday season coming. I can see $139 K3s for birthdays, Chinese new year, etc. I also see 'Ipod touch' being another gateway to ebooks. Android/Iphone will be a HUGE gateway, and of course tablets.
I'm sticking with prior predictions of 50% of the book dollars in ebooks by January 2013 (I hate changing predictions mid-stream), but I wonder... Is the book market changing much faster than I thought? Innovation happens slow than fast.
HAVE WE HIT THE TIPPING POINT?
We won't know until we pass it. I do not think so (yet). But I'd love to be proven wrong. But I think my original post in this blog is still on the mark. We'll see the tipping point in 2012. Now I'm leaning towards Early 2012 (almost Christmas 2011...) :) Ugh... I wish November data was already available (with Indie and small publisher sales too.)
Monday, December 27, 2010
ereader sales 2010
There are no hard numbers on ereader sales from any vendor.
I'll start with the smaller, but known e-readers:
several hundred thousand Kobo's activated daily starting 12/24/2010.
Then some positive rumors on Sony:
Rumors that Sonly sold 2 million ereaders in 2010
Which gives credence to the 8 million Kindles sold this year. It also puts Nook sales at 3 to 4 million for 2010. Time for B&N to upgrade the servers. ;) I personally didn't think the Nook color would do as well as it did. Kudos to those who anticipated the market. :)
Assuming "hundreds of thousands activated each day" for Kobo probably translates to 500,000 for Christmas... 12/28 Update: They've claimed a million activations. We're looking at 14 to 15 million e-readers sold in 2010. Most of the sales would have been for the holiday season. So we shouldn't have seen any uptick in sales before mid-November. Chanukah was December 2nd through 9th, so there should have been a nice 'spike' right after that.
I've very curious what the 12/24/2010 through today (12/27/2010) Amazon ebook sales.
I hope some of the authors noted sales by day and blog that information. Any links are appreciated.
The ebook revolution set its tap root this year. The growth from now through 2013 should be excellent. Good luck to all the authors. Only now do we have enough 'e-readers in the wild' to launch the market. Kudos to the pathfinders.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I'll start with the smaller, but known e-readers:
several hundred thousand Kobo's activated daily starting 12/24/2010.
Then some positive rumors on Sony:
Rumors that Sonly sold 2 million ereaders in 2010
Which gives credence to the 8 million Kindles sold this year. It also puts Nook sales at 3 to 4 million for 2010. Time for B&N to upgrade the servers. ;) I personally didn't think the Nook color would do as well as it did. Kudos to those who anticipated the market. :)
Assuming "hundreds of thousands activated each day" for Kobo probably translates to 500,000 for Christmas... 12/28 Update: They've claimed a million activations. We're looking at 14 to 15 million e-readers sold in 2010. Most of the sales would have been for the holiday season. So we shouldn't have seen any uptick in sales before mid-November. Chanukah was December 2nd through 9th, so there should have been a nice 'spike' right after that.
I've very curious what the 12/24/2010 through today (12/27/2010) Amazon ebook sales.
I hope some of the authors noted sales by day and blog that information. Any links are appreciated.
The ebook revolution set its tap root this year. The growth from now through 2013 should be excellent. Good luck to all the authors. Only now do we have enough 'e-readers in the wild' to launch the market. Kudos to the pathfinders.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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