Wednesday, December 29, 2010

5.3 million K3's sold in 2010 (to date)

Please read my previous post on how I came to an estimate of 14 to 15 million ereaders sold in 2010.

I used to follow this guy in digitimes (it helped my investing):

1.6 million Kindles per month

5.3 million K3's (per the link). That is in line with the estimate of a total of 8 million Kindles in 2010. (Or only 2.7 million K2, DX, 'new DX' in 2010... plausible.)

Digitimes (including Kuo, the quoted journalist) is pretty good at 'counting chips' and thus estimating units produced/sold. Since 'chips in' = 'chips out', it produces good production volume estimates. (In particular if they have excellent intelligence on one or two key chips in a device. Intelligence this journalist always seemed to have...)

So my confidence in 14 to 15 million e-readers sold is strengthening. I remain impressed with the large quantity of ePub readers sold (Sony and Kobo) as well as Color Nooks.

Let us put it in perspective... I guessed about 10 million ereaders in 2010. My error in estimate matches ereaders sold in 2009 and half of 2008!

Let's rephrase that. I'm a pro e-book blogger and I underestimated market growth by almost the market as of December 27th 2009. :) I can live with that error.

Did anyone estimate that ereaders would sell this well? Seriously, I'm not aware of any link that was this optimistic.

Got Popcorn?

ps: 9:17pm on 12/29/2010:
Another link for 8 million Kinles . I like these links as maybe the 'I watch TV journalists' will finally get it that there is a crowd that wants to read and will buy devices for reading. Yes... I realize there are more dollars in TV, movies, and video games. Yawn.

My estimates for ereader sales in 2010:
Kindle: 8 million
Nook: 4 million
Sony: 2 million
Kobo: 1/2 million

Error bars make the estimate 14 to 15 million for the year.

Note: Q12011 estimated Kindle sales are 4.5 million per some 'optimistic' links:
Same Kuo link, different information

Since the Chinese new year occurs in early February... We in effect have a 2nd holiday season coming. I can see $139 K3s for birthdays, Chinese new year, etc. I also see 'Ipod touch' being another gateway to ebooks. Android/Iphone will be a HUGE gateway, and of course tablets.

I'm sticking with prior predictions of 50% of the book dollars in ebooks by January 2013 (I hate changing predictions mid-stream), but I wonder... Is the book market changing much faster than I thought? Innovation happens slow than fast.

We won't know until we pass it. I do not think so (yet). But I'd love to be proven wrong. But I think my original post in this blog is still on the mark. We'll see the tipping point in 2012. Now I'm leaning towards Early 2012 (almost Christmas 2011...) :) Ugh... I wish November data was already available (with Indie and small publisher sales too.)

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