Thursday, September 29, 2011

Why the talk of Vinyl and Paper books?

Vinyl made a comeback with 2.8 million albums in 2010

Music's lost decade has been brutal. $14.6 billion a year in sales down to $6.3 Billion in 2009 and the above link says sales declined 2.4% or to about %6.1 Billion in 2010.

Why is this held up as a model for print? I fully expect print to survive. However, the librarians I know are being inundated with books handed over from the Boarders bankruptcy.

Now ebooks are different than music. Napster dominated music as there was no usable and legitimate way to load mp3s until 2003 and the iTunes store opened. Read the link, music is still dominated by piracy. eBooks are being led by legitimate outlets.

I expect print to remain a good fraction of the book market. Perhaps 20% of the revenue. How much is Vinyl? Assuming $25 per record, I calculate Vinyl is 1.15% of the music market. I probably overestimate the price per album... So let's be generous to Vinyl and call it one percent.

Why so much noise over about one percent of the market! I'd be happy if print were to survive at 20% to 30% of the market. I fervently hope print does better than a lonely one percent.


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