My parents had a TRS-80
Then mom needed an IBM 5150
Then in college, I borrowed Mac (friends or the universities)
In grad school I bought a 'clone PC' or utilized Sun workstations.
That clone PC went through two hard drives, three motherboards, two monitors, and three video cards. But like an axe where you replace the handle or the head, it was the same. :) Then I went through a pair of laptops. Both of which have helped me buy ebooks.
The 5150 was huge. Without 'the PC,' I doubt computers would be where they are today. It took someone to jump start the industry. It wasn't the first computer nor the last; but it launched an industry. Much like the Amazon Kindle. ;)
My point? Lead, follow, or get out of the way. IBM didn't control any of the software and that pushed them out of the business. Amazon, Apple, Nook (B&N), and Kobo all control the keys to their media. So I wonder if this generation of technology wouldn't be a bit more resistant?
I give the advantage to Amazon. As with the 5150, those were bought because they were a safe bet. With Amazon, their software (ebooks) will run on any platform/OS that will let them. I know of more than a few people who have bought Kindles as it was:
1. Cheap (like the 5150 vs. other business computers)
2. Portable software (5150 to Compaq, Kindle to an app)
3. Market leader (there is a group that feels safe in the pack)
You might be going, why advantage to Amazon? I know of a few who didn't buy Ipads due to 'being locked into the ecosystem.' Amazon isn't doing a 'hard lock.' More of a 'convenience lock' which customers are happy with. For example, there is a reason Netflix is so popular; you don't have to buy their device.
We owe much to the 5150. Without it, there wouldn't be e-readers (in my opinion). 30 years of PCs. It seems like more.
Neil
Sunday, August 14, 2011
Monday, August 8, 2011
How ereaders will become cheaper
We discuss the sub $100 ereader in the comment section of various blogs, but the question should be "how can anyone sell a cheap ereader?"
1. Economy of scale. E-ink inc. is increasing shipments
25million to 30million ereaders plus the Nook color and other device reading! Plus a new factory coming online...
2. Touch screens are the most costly component for many of the devices. Two finger and other low cost touchscreen solutions will be popular with ereaders.
3. Frame costs among other components A $5 savings might not sound like much, but it adds up.
4. Weak chip sales estimates for 3q2011 should reduce the build costs. Next year it will be the new 28nm chip manufacturing process.
5. Software profits (e.g., for Amazon, B&N, and Apple) Do I really need a link for my typical audience? In the long run the profit will be in the media, not the device. Thus vendors will cut profits.
6. Size. I wonder why no vendor has come out with a fractionally smaller e-reader? There is nothing magical about 6" or 7" screens. Oh, 3.5" is too small (too many page turns), but some middle ground would sell.
7. Cell Phones. Sales of these are exploding. Why isn't there an ereader cellphone subsidized by the carriers? Seriously, we've already had the 3G e-readers for $189. Increase the battery size a little and the ereader could be a free cellphone with data plan on any US cellphone network.
In conclusion:
I keep reusing this link. One item to note again and again is the 'elastic market' of ereaders. Look at the bottom of page 22. Currently over 53% of the potential ereader buyers are 'priced out' of the market. Note: That isn't the only growth; there is a huge market considering ereaders who remain on the fence. Ideas like Amazon's offers will further cut the price.
Ereaders are an elastic market. While some of us want higher end devices, there needs to be a gateway drug.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
1. Economy of scale. E-ink inc. is increasing shipments
25million to 30million ereaders plus the Nook color and other device reading! Plus a new factory coming online...
2. Touch screens are the most costly component for many of the devices. Two finger and other low cost touchscreen solutions will be popular with ereaders.
3. Frame costs among other components A $5 savings might not sound like much, but it adds up.
4. Weak chip sales estimates for 3q2011 should reduce the build costs. Next year it will be the new 28nm chip manufacturing process.
5. Software profits (e.g., for Amazon, B&N, and Apple) Do I really need a link for my typical audience? In the long run the profit will be in the media, not the device. Thus vendors will cut profits.
6. Size. I wonder why no vendor has come out with a fractionally smaller e-reader? There is nothing magical about 6" or 7" screens. Oh, 3.5" is too small (too many page turns), but some middle ground would sell.
7. Cell Phones. Sales of these are exploding. Why isn't there an ereader cellphone subsidized by the carriers? Seriously, we've already had the 3G e-readers for $189. Increase the battery size a little and the ereader could be a free cellphone with data plan on any US cellphone network.
In conclusion:
I keep reusing this link. One item to note again and again is the 'elastic market' of ereaders. Look at the bottom of page 22. Currently over 53% of the potential ereader buyers are 'priced out' of the market. Note: That isn't the only growth; there is a huge market considering ereaders who remain on the fence. Ideas like Amazon's offers will further cut the price.
Ereaders are an elastic market. While some of us want higher end devices, there needs to be a gateway drug.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Thursday, August 4, 2011
What fraction of the successful authors is Amazon Signing?
Huffington post notes how indie authors are using their success to go to publishing.
"It is for this group especially that e-books are so important, as they have essentially become a "gateway drug," enabling successful indie authors to stroll down the path into the welcoming arms of traditional publishers."
But thankfully I had just read David Gaughran's latest post. So I was thinking Amazon's latest imprint. When I recognize the cover it struck me to look who the listed authors had signed with:
Of the five examples, #1, #3, and #5 were 'was sold to Amazon's Thomas & Mercer'
Read the article on David's blog. Here is what struck me. Indie authors seem to respect "Joe Konrath has explained the power of an Amazon marketing push, something they don’t restrict to new titles, unlike most publishers." Yes, pbooks are marketing. Authors want simple contracts without 'non-compete clauses.' If they're going to risk pbooks, they want marketing.
My concern with Thomas & Mercer was their ability to put books into stores. With the quantity of best selling authors signed, the concern is 'can bookstores afford to not stock their titles?'
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"It is for this group especially that e-books are so important, as they have essentially become a "gateway drug," enabling successful indie authors to stroll down the path into the welcoming arms of traditional publishers."
But thankfully I had just read David Gaughran's latest post. So I was thinking Amazon's latest imprint. When I recognize the cover it struck me to look who the listed authors had signed with:
Of the five examples, #1, #3, and #5 were 'was sold to Amazon's Thomas & Mercer'
Read the article on David's blog. Here is what struck me. Indie authors seem to respect "Joe Konrath has explained the power of an Amazon marketing push, something they don’t restrict to new titles, unlike most publishers." Yes, pbooks are marketing. Authors want simple contracts without 'non-compete clauses.' If they're going to risk pbooks, they want marketing.
My concern with Thomas & Mercer was their ability to put books into stores. With the quantity of best selling authors signed, the concern is 'can bookstores afford to not stock their titles?'
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
Don't count on keeping the lead
Companies like to tout past or current market share as if it could never drop.
GM peaked at 51% of the US auto market
Nokia once held 35% of the US cell phone market (and I found poor links that claimed the 35% peak for global cell phones too) and once was a force to be dealt with.
The cell phone market is a great example. Once dominant companies are fading fast. Google 'Amazon tablet' in the news section and one hears plenty of rumors. Here is what matters:
1. Google missed the touchscreen market and gave that to B&N and perhaps others.
2. Google missed the demand for a multi function tablet
But here is a key, we already know more ereaders have been bought than tablets. Why? Price, weight, ease of reading, battery life, and simplicity of use (in order of why I believe they were bought).
Amazon needs to slow the growth of opposing ereaders. This means launching new devices at low price points. Amazon also needs to tap into a *large* app market. Hence the Android rumors...
Apple needs to launch new devices at lower price points. For readers this means a smaller and lighter device than the IPad2 with a more readable screen than the 3.5" IPhone. Rumors are Amazon will counter with a 6" touchscreen... Cheap and readable... I'm curious to see Job's new products this Christmas.
Both should either launch new subsidiaries (e.g., Amazon India) or form partnerships (Google with Android with Samsung, HTC, MMI, ZTC, Sony, your uncle Joe, and probably Amazon.) All it takes is one partner to pull the others into a larger market...
The next few years will be huge for ereaders. For now, it seems to be the English reader market; I suspect due to book supply. The winner will be the one who can supply the most books in a way that is easy to connect the reader (buyer) with the book being sold.
My main point is *all* of the ereader competitors have become complacent. B&N seems to be the most nimble on devices, but where is their entry into more foreign markets? Kobo seems to be the most nimble internationally; they just need to get the name out. Amazon's Kindle and Apple's products have 'mindshare,' now offer more devices to 'grow from strength.'
I'm curious to see what hits the market this back to school season and Christmas.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
GM peaked at 51% of the US auto market
Nokia once held 35% of the US cell phone market (and I found poor links that claimed the 35% peak for global cell phones too) and once was a force to be dealt with.
The cell phone market is a great example. Once dominant companies are fading fast. Google 'Amazon tablet' in the news section and one hears plenty of rumors. Here is what matters:
1. Google missed the touchscreen market and gave that to B&N and perhaps others.
2. Google missed the demand for a multi function tablet
But here is a key, we already know more ereaders have been bought than tablets. Why? Price, weight, ease of reading, battery life, and simplicity of use (in order of why I believe they were bought).
Amazon needs to slow the growth of opposing ereaders. This means launching new devices at low price points. Amazon also needs to tap into a *large* app market. Hence the Android rumors...
Apple needs to launch new devices at lower price points. For readers this means a smaller and lighter device than the IPad2 with a more readable screen than the 3.5" IPhone. Rumors are Amazon will counter with a 6" touchscreen... Cheap and readable... I'm curious to see Job's new products this Christmas.
Both should either launch new subsidiaries (e.g., Amazon India) or form partnerships (Google with Android with Samsung, HTC, MMI, ZTC, Sony, your uncle Joe, and probably Amazon.) All it takes is one partner to pull the others into a larger market...
The next few years will be huge for ereaders. For now, it seems to be the English reader market; I suspect due to book supply. The winner will be the one who can supply the most books in a way that is easy to connect the reader (buyer) with the book being sold.
My main point is *all* of the ereader competitors have become complacent. B&N seems to be the most nimble on devices, but where is their entry into more foreign markets? Kobo seems to be the most nimble internationally; they just need to get the name out. Amazon's Kindle and Apple's products have 'mindshare,' now offer more devices to 'grow from strength.'
I'm curious to see what hits the market this back to school season and Christmas.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Friday, July 22, 2011
May 2011 ebook sales
AAP May 2011 sales numbers are out in the most convoluted manner possible. So time for some graphs to elucidate. Note: This is 5 month data that I conveniently subtracted out the prior 4 months.
The quick summary:
Ebook sales are at 292% of a year ago
Children's books are selling at about 130% of normal
Adult paperback is selling about the historical normal.
Adult Hardcover is selling at 2/3rds of normal
MMPB is, at best, at 40% of normal sales.
We're approaching the mid-year spike of ebook sales. Ok, we're in it... July! Sigh... I'll have to wait 2 months for those numbers.
To the charts! Now my third and last chart will be variations of the same chart. Basically, we're seeing continued strong growth in ebook sales.
On the first chart, it shows the growth in ebook sales, by the AAP publishers, is far above an extrapolation of prior sales; that tells us the ebook market is still in a fast adoption timeframe.
Market share is something obsessed about and a bit difficult to understand with ebooks. What matters is that as long as sales (1st chart) exceed extrapolations of prior years, we know the ebook market will better than double its market share of the total book market:
Could you have imagined plotting total trade print sales versus ebook sales a few years ago? Now that ebooks are 26% of 'trade' (by my calculation), it is exciting seeing them on the same graph. I will repeat this graph at the end for an interesting conclusion...
Mass market paperback (MMPB) is getting creamed by ebooks. It was my favorite form factor as is the case with many (most?) 'serial fiction' readers. These are the readers that demand variety. Thus the best customers for indie authors. Thus the book form factor most reduced by ebooks to 40% of what it used to be (down from 50% last month)!
Hardcover is now being hit hard too. I wonder how much is do to "I want it now" which digital will always win and how much due to the excellent variety of fiction. Do recall these are AAP numbers... so part of the drop could be the new competition:
Adult paperback is doing ok. Not great after inflation, but not bad. Is this because so many paperback books are non-fiction?
Children's books are up! I suspect this is a snap back from a poor start of the year. Why doesn't matter. I'm happy to see this one category doing well. I do think it will be bowled over by touchscreen apps... But there is something nostalgic about kids reading. Alas, due to touchscreen apps, it isn't my family helping this category (we must have 600+ hand me down children's books):
Seasonal Charts
I'm a big fan of looking at data graphed different ways to truly understand the data. In a seasonal industry, such as books, that means plotting each year's data as one line.
First is ebook market share. There is a definitive July and end/start of year peak with a two troughs in between. I'd like to know more about the July peak. For now I'll just report the data:
A bar chart lets us see the trends for each month. This chart screams 'fast ebook growth' with no breaks applied:
The seasonal chart on Adult hardcovers shows they have lost their mojo. I suspect with the Borders bookstore closing this trend will be downward. :( I don't want an end to paper, I'm just much more for ebook growth!
Paperback is plodding along. It is neither doing great nor poorly. As noted before, I suspect this is due to non-fiction sales holding out in pbook form better than novels.
The seasonal chart shows the accelerating decline of MMPB. :( I do not wish to go into more detail of my favorite print form factor than to note sales should be two and a half times higher than they were in May just to be OK.
The seasonal Children's chart raises a question: Did May sales just steal from the mid-year? Or was their a 'hot book' I missed a la Harry Potter? (Or did the PR on the movie sell a bunch more Harry Potter books?)
While there are starting to be seasonal patterns in ebook sales, the trend is clear, fast year over year growth!
I promised a return to this chart. I've noticed that a line drawn through December and the following May sales is the yearly trend. So what if I extrapolate ebook sales on a multi-year basis? We see the trend in trade drop below ebooks in 2013. I think the crossing will be earlier (due to continued ebook sales acceleration).
I'm excited for the growth in ebooks. I'm also very happy to see print holding up better than I expected. Nothing would be better than a straight growth of the book market. :) I'm very curious to see the data on July (mid-year ebook peak). I also think my prediction of 50% ebooks by end of January 2013 is quite safe.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
The quick summary:
Ebook sales are at 292% of a year ago
Children's books are selling at about 130% of normal
Adult paperback is selling about the historical normal.
Adult Hardcover is selling at 2/3rds of normal
MMPB is, at best, at 40% of normal sales.
We're approaching the mid-year spike of ebook sales. Ok, we're in it... July! Sigh... I'll have to wait 2 months for those numbers.
To the charts! Now my third and last chart will be variations of the same chart. Basically, we're seeing continued strong growth in ebook sales.
On the first chart, it shows the growth in ebook sales, by the AAP publishers, is far above an extrapolation of prior sales; that tells us the ebook market is still in a fast adoption timeframe.
Market share is something obsessed about and a bit difficult to understand with ebooks. What matters is that as long as sales (1st chart) exceed extrapolations of prior years, we know the ebook market will better than double its market share of the total book market:
Could you have imagined plotting total trade print sales versus ebook sales a few years ago? Now that ebooks are 26% of 'trade' (by my calculation), it is exciting seeing them on the same graph. I will repeat this graph at the end for an interesting conclusion...
Mass market paperback (MMPB) is getting creamed by ebooks. It was my favorite form factor as is the case with many (most?) 'serial fiction' readers. These are the readers that demand variety. Thus the best customers for indie authors. Thus the book form factor most reduced by ebooks to 40% of what it used to be (down from 50% last month)!
Hardcover is now being hit hard too. I wonder how much is do to "I want it now" which digital will always win and how much due to the excellent variety of fiction. Do recall these are AAP numbers... so part of the drop could be the new competition:
Adult paperback is doing ok. Not great after inflation, but not bad. Is this because so many paperback books are non-fiction?
Children's books are up! I suspect this is a snap back from a poor start of the year. Why doesn't matter. I'm happy to see this one category doing well. I do think it will be bowled over by touchscreen apps... But there is something nostalgic about kids reading. Alas, due to touchscreen apps, it isn't my family helping this category (we must have 600+ hand me down children's books):
Seasonal Charts
I'm a big fan of looking at data graphed different ways to truly understand the data. In a seasonal industry, such as books, that means plotting each year's data as one line.
First is ebook market share. There is a definitive July and end/start of year peak with a two troughs in between. I'd like to know more about the July peak. For now I'll just report the data:
A bar chart lets us see the trends for each month. This chart screams 'fast ebook growth' with no breaks applied:
The seasonal chart on Adult hardcovers shows they have lost their mojo. I suspect with the Borders bookstore closing this trend will be downward. :( I don't want an end to paper, I'm just much more for ebook growth!
Paperback is plodding along. It is neither doing great nor poorly. As noted before, I suspect this is due to non-fiction sales holding out in pbook form better than novels.
The seasonal chart shows the accelerating decline of MMPB. :( I do not wish to go into more detail of my favorite print form factor than to note sales should be two and a half times higher than they were in May just to be OK.
The seasonal Children's chart raises a question: Did May sales just steal from the mid-year? Or was their a 'hot book' I missed a la Harry Potter? (Or did the PR on the movie sell a bunch more Harry Potter books?)
While there are starting to be seasonal patterns in ebook sales, the trend is clear, fast year over year growth!
I promised a return to this chart. I've noticed that a line drawn through December and the following May sales is the yearly trend. So what if I extrapolate ebook sales on a multi-year basis? We see the trend in trade drop below ebooks in 2013. I think the crossing will be earlier (due to continued ebook sales acceleration).
I'm excited for the growth in ebooks. I'm also very happy to see print holding up better than I expected. Nothing would be better than a straight growth of the book market. :) I'm very curious to see the data on July (mid-year ebook peak). I also think my prediction of 50% ebooks by end of January 2013 is quite safe.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sunday, July 17, 2011
How many authors have defected so self publishing?
Indie authors do very well in the mid-list. I blogged before on poor mmpb sales. If you write serial fiction, romance, sci-fi, erotica, and a few other genres, the door is closed for most authors in these genres to go the 'big6 route.' If your foot isn't already in the door... I just do not see where the money is going to come from to support new authors.
Harlequin's crew the author royalties, non-compete clauses,, low publisher support of new authors, and low publish royalty rates. How are the publishers gaining new authors?
Numerous old school authors are self-publishing their old works. Why wasn't this already done by the big6 (as much as legally possible)? Indie authors shouldn't fear the back list. Indie authors should cheer on the backlists coming to ebooks. Why? Further pull of readers to ebooks only grants a larger potential audience to new authors.
I do my own estimates of indie author sales... However, all indications are that I'm being too conservative. Does anyone have a good link on indie author market share?
Neil
Harlequin's crew the author royalties, non-compete clauses,, low publisher support of new authors, and low publish royalty rates. How are the publishers gaining new authors?
Numerous old school authors are self-publishing their old works. Why wasn't this already done by the big6 (as much as legally possible)? Indie authors shouldn't fear the back list. Indie authors should cheer on the backlists coming to ebooks. Why? Further pull of readers to ebooks only grants a larger potential audience to new authors.
I do my own estimates of indie author sales... However, all indications are that I'm being too conservative. Does anyone have a good link on indie author market share?
Neil
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Foxcon will be making a lot of Kindles!
Digitimes delivers another scoop
In addition to the new tablet PC orders, Foxconn currently is also likely to produce 12 million units of Kindles for Amazon,
Ok, you can read more about the tablets, for ebook enthusiasts, the important number is the quantity of Kindles being bought (to be sold to you and me).
Oh, I'm excited about the tablets and the potential for a Kindle phone. But for now, that is speculation. Knowing Amazon will keep producing Kindles in quantity is a find. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
In addition to the new tablet PC orders, Foxconn currently is also likely to produce 12 million units of Kindles for Amazon,
Ok, you can read more about the tablets, for ebook enthusiasts, the important number is the quantity of Kindles being bought (to be sold to you and me).
Oh, I'm excited about the tablets and the potential for a Kindle phone. But for now, that is speculation. Knowing Amazon will keep producing Kindles in quantity is a find. :)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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