Thursday, January 13, 2011

Very interesting Data from May

PWC put out This interesting pdf. It is a *long* but worthwhile read. Hattip to Robert Burton Robinson for posting the link in JA Konrath's blog.

Take a moment to realize it is a snapshot from May. The information is much better than the 'hand waving' I see on e-books from so many. But it does have some minor contradictions within: e.g., Amazon cannot sell 8X as much as the rest of the market if B&N has 20% of the market... But if you read it as a whole, it is *very* informative.

In section 2 page 10 it notes that 'special interest' books were 10% of the ebook market in 2009! I take that to mean small publisher/Indie authors were 10% of the US market in 2009. I blogged that by December 2010, small publisher and Indie authors were 20% to 33% of the market.

This is important! The next release of the AAP number I will be adjusting the data based upon:
1. December 2009 being 10% non-reported ebook sales (non-AAP 14 reporting publishers).
2. December 2010 being 20% non-reported ebook sales (non-AAP 14 reporting)

I will be assuming a linear market transition (lacking other data points). Now, as I noted before, Indie authors/small publishers could already be as much as 1/3rd of the ebook market. But I'll be conservative. For I'd rather be proven to not be 'excited enough' about ebooks.

Just a teaser graph using the October data (released in December):

I'm expecting, based on the comments at JA's blog that November and December will see quite the spike in sales.

If you do read the first link in this blog, it goes into how 'demand for variety' is driving readers to ereaders. It is one reason the above graph lists the books available for sale on

I'm still amused how ebooks out did this pdf. Oh, I disagree with the 2011 sales prediction. I think ebooks will do much better.

Got Popcorn?


  1. Test. I just created a new blogger ID as an example for comments at JAs blog.


  2. Second paragraph: the 8X and the 20% relate to different time periods. That explains the discrepancy. Perhaps what they're suggesting is that Nook was doing well in June/10, whereas by the end of 2010, some industry observers--the ones that predict the 8X figure--expect Amazon to have more or less reversed any gains Nook may have enjoyed up to mid-2010?