Mark Coker (Smashwords founder) is predicting ebooks break 20% of dollar market share by year end 2011.
"1.Ebook sales rise, unit consumption surprises – Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet the bigger surprise is that ebooks will account for one third or more of unit consumption. Why? Ebooks cost less and early ebook adopters read more."
Anyone who reads JA's blog will agree with:
"4. Self Publishing goes from option of last resort to option of first resort among unpublished authors – Most unpublished authors today still aspire to achieve the perceived credibility and blessing that comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of traditional publishing is fading fast."
There is more. The main point is that 20% of trade dollars... I disagree. I see the US market on a trend to achieve that in 2012. Total books later...
I should be clear, my predictions are for the US market and I predict in dollar, not volume, revenue.
The link is worth reading further.
A 2nd link:
On the transition to ebooks.
Some tidbits worth noting:
" Ebook prices are significantly lower than those of printed books, even though the actual cost difference for the publisher is on the order of $1 to $3.50. "
" Revenue still favors dead trees." Note: I happen to agree. So what? The 'trend is your friend.'
Basically the 2nd link goes on to note that publishing houses will invest more in big name blockbusters and less on other titles.
I've noted before that midlist is what will drive people to ereaders. It used to be that Borders and B&N stocked midlist to attract 'browsers' in to buy the best sellers in their stores (instead of Costco, Walmart, Walgreens, Safeway, etc.). In my opinion, there is no bookstore market without midlist. Time for B&N to set up POD coffee shops... seriously, change the model folks! The old one isn't much of a life raft.