Indie Ebook share Growing Fast!

Indie/small pub e-book market share is growing fast. An old business adage is "first gain market share and profits will follow."

I posted here :
1. Indie/small pub were 10% of ebooks in December 2009
2. My estimate of 20% of ebooks indie/small pub in December 2010

Robin Has posted a nice summary of March 2011 share of the top 100 on Amazon.

38% of the top 100 are now Indie. The distribution slightly favors the AAP14, but not by much:
"As of my analysis earlier today indies held the following spots:
#1, #4, #8, #12, #14, #17, #18, #19, #31, #34, #35, #38, #41, #43, #46, #50, #54, #56, #58, #59, #61, #67, #73, #75, #76, #77, #82, #93, #95"


I'm unable to give a 'hard number' on the dollars for indie/small publishers from these figures. But it leaves credence to continuing to linearly extrapolate the indie/small publisher market share. So I add this future data point:
3. Indie/small pub DOLLAR market share 30% in December 2011.

I feel that is conservative. Why? My previous post on sci-fi/romance showed that for two top e-book genre, indie/small pub have taken over! But I have this thing against revising predictions down...

At some point, by mid-2012, indie/small pub revenue gains will be biting the AAP14 revenue. That will further push the tipping point to ebooks as any 'consolidation' levels the playing field more for the small guy. :)

Neil