Mims meme on ebooks plateauing at 50% seems to be gaining traction. Why? What technology slows adoption at such a low number when it just grew to almost 35%? Technology diffusion theory tells us the peak growth is at the midpoint of the adoption cycle. We're certainly at or near ebook peak growth. We have to be. If in another year ebooks triple again, they'll be past 100% book market share!
So I'm predicting ebook growth will slow in 2011 (despite what I've blogged about ebooks growing the book market). I do not think ebooks will hit 100% market share, too many people truly love print books. But judging from last year's growth, 70% is the minimum ebook market share by 2015. Minimum, by definition, means the market could be larger.
Ebook trend is shifting toward indie/small pub.
"Amazon says its studies have shown that digital titles sold by publishers using agency pricing aren't showing the same rate of unit growth as books that Amazon can discount. "The publishers showing the fastest growth are the ones where we set the prices," says Russell Grandinetti, Amazon's vice president for Kindle content.
"
Heavy book buyers avoiding bookstores. "He said some e-books had a 50% share of total sales during the first few months, a “watershed” for the trade." One doesn't have to read JA Konrath's blog to understand the implications... e-books have an infinite life and if titles are selling 50% e-books initially, that means the market will go majority ebooks.
But here is where the 50% maximum really comes from (same link):"Godfray said the challenge for publishers was to work out how they support the high street, given the need for shop window visibility for books to sell." Ummm... Just because publishers *need* bookstores to hold onto gatekeeping doesn't mean the market needs them. Ebooks are a disruptive technology.
WSJ noted the disruption of $0.99 ebooks notes: “In March he sold 369,000 downloads on Amazon, up from about 75,000 in January and just 1,300 in November. His titles are also for sale at digital bookstores operated by Kobo Inc., Barnes & Noble Inc., and Apple Inc.” Can we expect that type of growth from the AAP's March numbers? I'm not saying March will have 5X the sales of January, but rather another unseasonal month of ebook growth could have happened...
My old prediction of 50% ebook market share in January 2013 is looking quaint. I'm upping the ante to ebooks having 70%+ market share in 2015. The final market share? I'm not sure. I want print to survive. But not enough to pay retail for pbooks. ;)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Showing posts with label tipping point. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tipping point. Show all posts
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Sunday, March 6, 2011
Indie Ebook share Growing Fast!
Indie/small pub e-book market share is growing fast. An old business adage is "first gain market share and profits will follow."
I posted here :
1. Indie/small pub were 10% of ebooks in December 2009
2. My estimate of 20% of ebooks indie/small pub in December 2010
Robin Has posted a nice summary of March 2011 share of the top 100 on Amazon.
38% of the top 100 are now Indie. The distribution slightly favors the AAP14, but not by much:
"As of my analysis earlier today indies held the following spots:
#1, #4, #8, #12, #14, #17, #18, #19, #31, #34, #35, #38, #41, #43, #46, #50, #54, #56, #58, #59, #61, #67, #73, #75, #76, #77, #82, #93, #95"
I'm unable to give a 'hard number' on the dollars for indie/small publishers from these figures. But it leaves credence to continuing to linearly extrapolate the indie/small publisher market share. So I add this future data point:
3. Indie/small pub DOLLAR market share 30% in December 2011.
I feel that is conservative. Why? My previous post on sci-fi/romance showed that for two top e-book genre, indie/small pub have taken over! But I have this thing against revising predictions down...
At some point, by mid-2012, indie/small pub revenue gains will be biting the AAP14 revenue. That will further push the tipping point to ebooks as any 'consolidation' levels the playing field more for the small guy. :)
Neil
I posted here :
1. Indie/small pub were 10% of ebooks in December 2009
2. My estimate of 20% of ebooks indie/small pub in December 2010
Robin Has posted a nice summary of March 2011 share of the top 100 on Amazon.
38% of the top 100 are now Indie. The distribution slightly favors the AAP14, but not by much:
"As of my analysis earlier today indies held the following spots:
#1, #4, #8, #12, #14, #17, #18, #19, #31, #34, #35, #38, #41, #43, #46, #50, #54, #56, #58, #59, #61, #67, #73, #75, #76, #77, #82, #93, #95"
I'm unable to give a 'hard number' on the dollars for indie/small publishers from these figures. But it leaves credence to continuing to linearly extrapolate the indie/small publisher market share. So I add this future data point:
3. Indie/small pub DOLLAR market share 30% in December 2011.
I feel that is conservative. Why? My previous post on sci-fi/romance showed that for two top e-book genre, indie/small pub have taken over! But I have this thing against revising predictions down...
At some point, by mid-2012, indie/small pub revenue gains will be biting the AAP14 revenue. That will further push the tipping point to ebooks as any 'consolidation' levels the playing field more for the small guy. :)
Neil
Monday, February 28, 2011
Three aspects of tipping points
The tipping point is a bit of a misnomer in technological adoption. While on small scales it happens rapidly, it is better to think along the lines of technological diffusion.
So how does it really happen?
1. The 'new technology' gains 'economy of scale.'
2. The old technology loses 'economy of scale.'
3. Vendors defect to the new technology.
Since this blog is about ebooks, we'll compare ebooks to pbooks.
1. The 'new technology' gains 'economy of scale.'
We've been seeing this for years in ebooks. There are three aspects:
A. ereader prices have dropped and will continue to drop
B. Ebook availability easily exceeds print (pbook) availability.
C. Ebooks everywhere.
The last point bears repeating. I 'consume' ebooks via text to speech when I commute. Having a Kindle fit into the diaper bag allows me to 'sneak reads' during kiddie naps or when they're occupied on the playground. We're the 'odd couple' in our playgroup as we're not reading ebooks on our cell phones. (Wife is glued to her IPad though...). Multiple coworkers read on IPod touches during flights, etc. I think ebooks everywhere has increased ebook consumption further than most predict (by 1/3rd).
I also keep bumping into casual readers who bought an ereader due to ereading on their phone. Not to replace the phone, but for bed time reading.
2. The old technology loses 'economy of scale.'
We've seen this in book store closings (e.g., Borders books) and downsizing of book distribution and print runs. An easier way is to look at sales volume. If sales volume goes up 10X, the cost per unit should drop in half (for physical goods such as pbooks or ereaders) and costs drop even faster for electronic goods (ebooks).
Robin posted a nice summary of book sales. After 3 years of sales decline, pbooks are starting to feel the loss of 'economy of scale.'
3. Vendors defect to the new technology.
Vendors are what preserve old technology. Their resistance to change makes it difficult. That isn't the case with ebooks.
Legacy publishing locks out a large fraction of the good authors for arbitrary reasons. It could be too many writers in their sub-genre or the publisher being risk adverse. I'm just doing a quick summary of what http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/ has already posted.
What happens when ebooks are the preferential way for authors to publish? Editors and cover artists often work by the job anyway...
I'm not predicting the end of pbooks. There is a love of print volumes. However, practicality rules over nostalgia. Already for my favorite genres, there is far more worth reading in ebook form.
2011 is just a transition year. 2012 is when the tipping point hits.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
So how does it really happen?
1. The 'new technology' gains 'economy of scale.'
2. The old technology loses 'economy of scale.'
3. Vendors defect to the new technology.
Since this blog is about ebooks, we'll compare ebooks to pbooks.
1. The 'new technology' gains 'economy of scale.'
We've been seeing this for years in ebooks. There are three aspects:
A. ereader prices have dropped and will continue to drop
B. Ebook availability easily exceeds print (pbook) availability.
C. Ebooks everywhere.
The last point bears repeating. I 'consume' ebooks via text to speech when I commute. Having a Kindle fit into the diaper bag allows me to 'sneak reads' during kiddie naps or when they're occupied on the playground. We're the 'odd couple' in our playgroup as we're not reading ebooks on our cell phones. (Wife is glued to her IPad though...). Multiple coworkers read on IPod touches during flights, etc. I think ebooks everywhere has increased ebook consumption further than most predict (by 1/3rd).
I also keep bumping into casual readers who bought an ereader due to ereading on their phone. Not to replace the phone, but for bed time reading.
2. The old technology loses 'economy of scale.'
We've seen this in book store closings (e.g., Borders books) and downsizing of book distribution and print runs. An easier way is to look at sales volume. If sales volume goes up 10X, the cost per unit should drop in half (for physical goods such as pbooks or ereaders) and costs drop even faster for electronic goods (ebooks).
Robin posted a nice summary of book sales. After 3 years of sales decline, pbooks are starting to feel the loss of 'economy of scale.'
3. Vendors defect to the new technology.
Vendors are what preserve old technology. Their resistance to change makes it difficult. That isn't the case with ebooks.
Legacy publishing locks out a large fraction of the good authors for arbitrary reasons. It could be too many writers in their sub-genre or the publisher being risk adverse. I'm just doing a quick summary of what http://jakonrath.blogspot.com/ has already posted.
What happens when ebooks are the preferential way for authors to publish? Editors and cover artists often work by the job anyway...
I'm not predicting the end of pbooks. There is a love of print volumes. However, practicality rules over nostalgia. Already for my favorite genres, there is far more worth reading in ebook form.
2011 is just a transition year. 2012 is when the tipping point hits.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Tipping point for E-books
Not yet.
I'm writing this post to clarify what I consider the tipping point. Why now? I think we are past that point for some sub-groups. It is only going to spread...
What is a tipping point?:
Wikipedia describes an... 'old example' of how on to many creates a sudden shift. I'm referring to as the 'ebook tipping point' as to when there will be a sudden shift out of p-books sales to e-books sales.
When? (time):
The discussions were originally in 2012. OK, last year At the Frankfurt book fair it was proposed to be 2018. Obviously it will happen before then. ;) But that doesn't narrow down when there is a shift from p-books to e-books.
The Publisher/Amazon tiff certainly delayed that tipping point. Probably by six months. In the long run, it will just result in more ebook piracy". Higher prices always slow adoption. In the digital world they also provide incentive to find 'free alternatives.' Didn't mp3s teach the publishers anything? Sigh...
Thankfully, indie authors have filled the gap. I'm trying to find a quantifiable metric to blog the shift to indie authors. Any suggestions for something that wouldn't take more than 15 minutes to collect each month's data?
When? (trigger event):
Some of speculated that it will occur with as little as 10% market share. I've been adamant that it is 20% market share. But what if it is 20% by genre or other sub-group? That is almost certainly the case!
We've briefly discussed on JA's blog" how in certain genres an 'old guard' was limiting the variety of sci-fi available. (: If you didn't click on the genre link, please do so. There is a huge variety that readers desire.
long tail theory" definitely applies to Sci-fi, Romance, mystery, and basically every novel genre has an 'old guard' keeping out too much of the variety.
When the readers from those genres go e-book, they'll pull their friends. For some it has already happened.
Consequences:
I'm one of those readers that once I fully went ebook, I'm done buying p-books. I have a bookcase and two boxes with about 200 unread p-books. (Mostly 'finds' at the local library used book sale or gifts.) While a few ebook readers truly prefer pbooks, most of the reader I know make the switch and do not look back.
A big sub-group that has made the switch are those that travel. Pbooks are just too bulky. However, Amazon must do a better job of 'converging' devices. e.g., I'd love to see an 'Android' cell phone with an LCD screen on one side and e-ink on the other.
The types of books that the 'I love turning pages' crowd love will be available at independent book stores or the checkout isle of Walmart/Costco. I really see little space for the current style chain bookstore.
I see a huge potential for POD coffeeshops. It might be another business where the POD is not a huge profit center but rather something to attract customers. Please expand LAX and put a few of these POD coffee shops into the airport! :) I'd actually buy a pbook just for the experience...
But as far as I can tell, Scifi&Fantasy and Romance are past the tipping point. 'Road warriors' are at the cusp. Mass transit commuters are there in some cities, but not in others. So in some ways, this will be blogging a 'rolling tipping point.' That will be fun! :)
Google:
I personally think Google editions" will rock the market. While it might (or might not) reach significant market presence, I expect the media attention directed to e-books due to Google editions to shift the book market.
I know of quite a few people worried about Kindle and ePub... With multiple ePub applications under development, one will work. Probably one developed by Google. ;) (I see no advantage for Google developing their own hardware a la the Android where they had to.)
Non-readers:
Some book covers generate snide comments from the 70% of the population who doesn't read much. Those snide comments are pushing those readers to ebooks.
Smartphones:
I'd love to know the true fraction of ebooks being read on smartphones. Among my friends it is about 10% to 20% and growing. Mostly among the "20 books a year crowd." The 100+ books a year crowd have mostly gone all Kindle.
Out of curiosity, do you know a significant number of friends or relatives who still read 100+ books a year in pbooks? 50% of those I know are Kindle readers. 10% other ebook readers. 10% to the IPad/Laptop. All of the above groups have a fraction that use smartphones 'here and there' to read. Only about 20% of those I know refuse to go digital. But I tend to travel in 'tech friendly' crowds. Note: The missing 10% are 'tech friendly types' trying to 'read through' their pbook library before going to an e-reader.
Christmas:
E-readers are now at an ideal gift giving price point. Judging by the large spike in ebooks sales volume at the start of 2010, we could hit the tipping point post Christmas due to the generosity of readers' friends.
Smartphones will also grow tremendously at Christmas. I still expect smartphones to be the primary 'gateway device' to ereaders. I do not consider them competition, but rather 'augmentation' (the cell phone is there to read) or to give readers a tast of ebooks. :)
Conclusion and Prediction:
Some people will not convert. I see a bright future for POD and used book stores. In some cities, independent book stores catering to a literature crowd will thrive. But not in most cities. :( Perhaps 20% of the pbook market will survive a la vinyl records in specialty stores for connoisseurs.
But for SciFi and Fantasy readers... the old guard kept out too much as well as snide comments from the techno-phobic. I think that market is past the tipping point. Same with Romance for similar but slightly different reasons. Please let me know if you've seen any other genres make the switch.
We're in the rolling tipping point for ebooks. Enjoy. :) By January 2013, I expect 50%+ of the trade book market (including mmpb) to be ebooks. Text books will lag, but not for very long.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
I'm writing this post to clarify what I consider the tipping point. Why now? I think we are past that point for some sub-groups. It is only going to spread...
What is a tipping point?:
Wikipedia describes an... 'old example' of how on to many creates a sudden shift. I'm referring to as the 'ebook tipping point' as to when there will be a sudden shift out of p-books sales to e-books sales.
When? (time):
The discussions were originally in 2012. OK, last year At the Frankfurt book fair it was proposed to be 2018. Obviously it will happen before then. ;) But that doesn't narrow down when there is a shift from p-books to e-books.
The Publisher/Amazon tiff certainly delayed that tipping point. Probably by six months. In the long run, it will just result in more ebook piracy". Higher prices always slow adoption. In the digital world they also provide incentive to find 'free alternatives.' Didn't mp3s teach the publishers anything? Sigh...
Thankfully, indie authors have filled the gap. I'm trying to find a quantifiable metric to blog the shift to indie authors. Any suggestions for something that wouldn't take more than 15 minutes to collect each month's data?
When? (trigger event):
Some of speculated that it will occur with as little as 10% market share. I've been adamant that it is 20% market share. But what if it is 20% by genre or other sub-group? That is almost certainly the case!
We've briefly discussed on JA's blog" how in certain genres an 'old guard' was limiting the variety of sci-fi available. (: If you didn't click on the genre link, please do so. There is a huge variety that readers desire.
long tail theory" definitely applies to Sci-fi, Romance, mystery, and basically every novel genre has an 'old guard' keeping out too much of the variety.
When the readers from those genres go e-book, they'll pull their friends. For some it has already happened.
Consequences:
I'm one of those readers that once I fully went ebook, I'm done buying p-books. I have a bookcase and two boxes with about 200 unread p-books. (Mostly 'finds' at the local library used book sale or gifts.) While a few ebook readers truly prefer pbooks, most of the reader I know make the switch and do not look back.
A big sub-group that has made the switch are those that travel. Pbooks are just too bulky. However, Amazon must do a better job of 'converging' devices. e.g., I'd love to see an 'Android' cell phone with an LCD screen on one side and e-ink on the other.
The types of books that the 'I love turning pages' crowd love will be available at independent book stores or the checkout isle of Walmart/Costco. I really see little space for the current style chain bookstore.
I see a huge potential for POD coffeeshops. It might be another business where the POD is not a huge profit center but rather something to attract customers. Please expand LAX and put a few of these POD coffee shops into the airport! :) I'd actually buy a pbook just for the experience...
But as far as I can tell, Scifi&Fantasy and Romance are past the tipping point. 'Road warriors' are at the cusp. Mass transit commuters are there in some cities, but not in others. So in some ways, this will be blogging a 'rolling tipping point.' That will be fun! :)
Google:
I personally think Google editions" will rock the market. While it might (or might not) reach significant market presence, I expect the media attention directed to e-books due to Google editions to shift the book market.
I know of quite a few people worried about Kindle and ePub... With multiple ePub applications under development, one will work. Probably one developed by Google. ;) (I see no advantage for Google developing their own hardware a la the Android where they had to.)
Non-readers:
Some book covers generate snide comments from the 70% of the population who doesn't read much. Those snide comments are pushing those readers to ebooks.
Smartphones:
I'd love to know the true fraction of ebooks being read on smartphones. Among my friends it is about 10% to 20% and growing. Mostly among the "20 books a year crowd." The 100+ books a year crowd have mostly gone all Kindle.
Out of curiosity, do you know a significant number of friends or relatives who still read 100+ books a year in pbooks? 50% of those I know are Kindle readers. 10% other ebook readers. 10% to the IPad/Laptop. All of the above groups have a fraction that use smartphones 'here and there' to read. Only about 20% of those I know refuse to go digital. But I tend to travel in 'tech friendly' crowds. Note: The missing 10% are 'tech friendly types' trying to 'read through' their pbook library before going to an e-reader.
Christmas:
E-readers are now at an ideal gift giving price point. Judging by the large spike in ebooks sales volume at the start of 2010, we could hit the tipping point post Christmas due to the generosity of readers' friends.
Smartphones will also grow tremendously at Christmas. I still expect smartphones to be the primary 'gateway device' to ereaders. I do not consider them competition, but rather 'augmentation' (the cell phone is there to read) or to give readers a tast of ebooks. :)
Conclusion and Prediction:
Some people will not convert. I see a bright future for POD and used book stores. In some cities, independent book stores catering to a literature crowd will thrive. But not in most cities. :( Perhaps 20% of the pbook market will survive a la vinyl records in specialty stores for connoisseurs.
But for SciFi and Fantasy readers... the old guard kept out too much as well as snide comments from the techno-phobic. I think that market is past the tipping point. Same with Romance for similar but slightly different reasons. Please let me know if you've seen any other genres make the switch.
We're in the rolling tipping point for ebooks. Enjoy. :) By January 2013, I expect 50%+ of the trade book market (including mmpb) to be ebooks. Text books will lag, but not for very long.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)