E-ink is reporting that they'll meet projections for ereaders in 2011.
I found this bit interesting:
But global shipments of e-book readers experienced a seasonal dip in the second-quarter, according to IDC. Shipments reached nearly six million units in first-quarter 2011, but shipments in the second quarter totaled 5.4 million units, up 167% on-year but down 9.2% on-quarter.
Amazon Kindle's market share slid to 51.7% in the second-quarter from about 53% in the first, while Barnes & Noble's Nook dropped to 21.2% from about 23%, according to IDC.
Amazon is barely holding onto half the market. Since they are the most 'indie-friendly' ebookstore, that is bad on one hand... on the other, it is good not to have a market dominance.
I blogged before don't count on keeping the market lead. For example, For the last 3 months in the US Android cell phones have outsold iPhones two to one. I'm surprised to see B&N and Kindle both lost market share. I'm wondering who gained? (Google? Apple? With Boarders going kaput, I doubt it was Kobo and Microsoft dropped their initiative.)
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
This doesn't include tablets.
The above sales figures show that ereaders sell ok in the 1st and 2nd quarters but are really a back to school and holiday phenomenon. 1H2011 11.4Million out of 25 to 30 million (e-ink). I suspect we'll see another 5 million LCD ereaders in 2011. So the 2nd half of the year is about 2/3rds of the sales. Hence why Amazon is waiting on their new ereaders, tablet, and B&N the rumored new Nook tablet right before the holidays.
I'm big into cell phones as 'convenience readers.' We recently returned from a cruise and for every reader on a Kindle, I saw one on a smartphone, one on a tablet (almost all iPads, a few Samsungs, but not many), and three to five playing games on their cellphones or tablets. :( And for each Kindle reader two reading pbooks. :) Mind you, it was a Disney cruise, so lots of waiting in line. ;)
So only somewhat related, Microsoft's phone strategy baffles me. February is too late for Nokia. B&N showed how it should be done. The nook color October 2010, Nook simple-touch in
updated 12:40pm
Showing posts with label market share. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market share. Show all posts
Monday, September 26, 2011
Monday, April 25, 2011
Professional and scholarly 75.9% of ebook sales
Ebooks dominated by Professional books?
"According to a press release from Simba Information, a well-known book publishing market researcher, professional and scholarly books — which include science, technology, medical, business, and legal – “hold 75.9% of the $1.76 billion U.S. E-book market.” That’s a percentage of a dollar volume, which makes sense, as these will be among the more expensive titles."
First, that puts the ebook market a wee bit larger than I was expecting!
Then again, we've been focused on novels and other entertainment books.
Most IT professional I know buy several texts per year and practically all of them switched to ebooks (mostly pdf format) a few years ago. Could this be biased by a few industries?
If technical books are already that far to ebooks... We're not just past the tipping point, we're about at the point where *all* the kids studying science at the college level will swap to ebooks.
I wonder at the survey. I'm a little surprised at the text sales levels. Now, this won't show up in my graphs (they're not 'trade' books). But this 'teaches' a huge group a people to use ebooks...
Late edit:
Another article linking the same survey:
“Librarians understand these needs, which can only be serviced on an electronic platform.”
Makes sense, my employer put the google desktop on all our machines so that we could search our own work... Why buy a technical reference without search?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"According to a press release from Simba Information, a well-known book publishing market researcher, professional and scholarly books — which include science, technology, medical, business, and legal – “hold 75.9% of the $1.76 billion U.S. E-book market.” That’s a percentage of a dollar volume, which makes sense, as these will be among the more expensive titles."
First, that puts the ebook market a wee bit larger than I was expecting!
Then again, we've been focused on novels and other entertainment books.
Most IT professional I know buy several texts per year and practically all of them switched to ebooks (mostly pdf format) a few years ago. Could this be biased by a few industries?
If technical books are already that far to ebooks... We're not just past the tipping point, we're about at the point where *all* the kids studying science at the college level will swap to ebooks.
I wonder at the survey. I'm a little surprised at the text sales levels. Now, this won't show up in my graphs (they're not 'trade' books). But this 'teaches' a huge group a people to use ebooks...
Late edit:
Another article linking the same survey:
“Librarians understand these needs, which can only be serviced on an electronic platform.”
Makes sense, my employer put the google desktop on all our machines so that we could search our own work... Why buy a technical reference without search?
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Sunday, March 27, 2011
Peak ebook market share and indie authors
Has anyone found a good link on non-AAP14 ebook sales? I've done my estimates; but it has become too obvious I am underestimating indie/small publisher market share. In bookstores, the top AAP14 (of 88) had a huge advantage with coop and other schemes to push everyone off the bookshelves. Now it is the big6/AAP14 vs. 400 publishers and DTP authors.
I see no way that I'm not underestimating the sales of that horde that were pushed into less desirable corners of the bookstores or even out of the bookstores. But I'll keep blogging my estimate as I would rather not over-estimate indie-author sales. Let's face it, Barry Eisler would never have turned down $500k (yes, half a million bucks) if the old system were working for authors.
Peak ebook market share:
I keep hearing that ebooks will top out at some absurdly low market share. With my underestimation of indie/small publisher market share, it was just under 28% in January. Since the market is still accelerating, old technology diffusion theory tells us that we're at most at the half way point.
Worst case ebooks will hit 56% of the book market market share.
But there is nothing to say we've hit the half way point. So the potential final market share could be much higher. I've watched a number of co-workers who swore they'd never adopt ebooks buy Kindles and Nooks when they found out their favorite bookstore was destined to close; but a few will read paper to their grave.
My estimate is that ebooks will peak at 75% to 85% of the book market share. It is nothing more than a hunch. A hunch supported by current ebook market share and growth.
Any links or opinions are appreciated in the comment section.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps, About as soon as I posted Moses Siregar III posted a good link in the comments of JA Konrath's blog: Ebooks to dominate by March 2013.
I disagree with that post in one detail. The *latest* ebooks will have 50% market share is January 2013. ;) That has been my main prediction for a bit. There is now a greater probability that the threshold will be crossed earlier than later! I'm still floored as to how well ebooks did this January.
I see no way that I'm not underestimating the sales of that horde that were pushed into less desirable corners of the bookstores or even out of the bookstores. But I'll keep blogging my estimate as I would rather not over-estimate indie-author sales. Let's face it, Barry Eisler would never have turned down $500k (yes, half a million bucks) if the old system were working for authors.
Peak ebook market share:
I keep hearing that ebooks will top out at some absurdly low market share. With my underestimation of indie/small publisher market share, it was just under 28% in January. Since the market is still accelerating, old technology diffusion theory tells us that we're at most at the half way point.
Worst case ebooks will hit 56% of the book market market share.
But there is nothing to say we've hit the half way point. So the potential final market share could be much higher. I've watched a number of co-workers who swore they'd never adopt ebooks buy Kindles and Nooks when they found out their favorite bookstore was destined to close; but a few will read paper to their grave.
My estimate is that ebooks will peak at 75% to 85% of the book market share. It is nothing more than a hunch. A hunch supported by current ebook market share and growth.
Any links or opinions are appreciated in the comment section.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps, About as soon as I posted Moses Siregar III posted a good link in the comments of JA Konrath's blog: Ebooks to dominate by March 2013.
I disagree with that post in one detail. The *latest* ebooks will have 50% market share is January 2013. ;) That has been my main prediction for a bit. There is now a greater probability that the threshold will be crossed earlier than later! I'm still floored as to how well ebooks did this January.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Print Book Market share
I find this is one of the more abused concepts out there. How can book market share be so uncertain? Working in just rough numbers
Indie bookstores 10% pbook market share
B&N at 16% print book market share.
Borders is down to 5%
Wait, where did the 10% market share go that I've read before?!? Has Borders been collapsing that quickly or is there that much rounding in print book market share? No one expected them to hold prior market share, but that is pretty small market share...
What about Amazon? While the market share
estimated 20% to 25% of pbooks.
Now, I've read that at the end of 2009 Amazon was 15% of the book market, so this is tremendous market share growth.
Now we have 17%+5%+20% (to 25%)+ 10%= 52%. This ties in with what I've heard about big box retailers holding one third to one half book market share.
Borders 13% market share in 2006, Amazon 10% back then. B&N at 17%
Amusing link promising 70% print market share through 2020. By 2013 that prediction will be proven false.
Why does this matter on an ebook blog? Mostly the impending Borders bankruptcy. If the rumors are true of 150 out of 650 Borders stores closing than we would expect customers to distribute as per existing book market share. But how likely are these customers to go to ebook? Some will have little choice as the nearest book store is too inconvenient and if one is to go internet books, why not go all the way? Some will transfer to another print source.
So in the attempt to constantly refine my prediction, I expect Borders closing 150 stores to push about 10% of their customers to ebooks. That is 0.5% market share growth for ebooks. Before you yawn at ebooks growing another ~5%, realize this is additional 'push' market share growth above and beyond other trend lines.
I also consider Borders the #1 US retail source of 'variety' in print books. IMHO, the most valuable ebook customer is the 'variety' book buyer. Those customers tend to buy books in quantity (30+) and are willing to try new authors. My calculations estimate those buyers at 35% of the total book market. (Top 10% are 70% of the book market and I estimate half of those customers are the 'variety' customers.)
There will be a 'tipping point' at some time that "pushes" a rush of customers to ebooks. Let me be clear, we are not near the tipping point. That has traditionally happened at 20% market share for a technology. The shift from 20% to 60% market share has historically been the 'run away' growth for any technology (Examples: DVD, mp3, ps2 or Wii, etc.)
The current print distribution system is not set up to handle a 20% cut in volume. There will be a reverse 'economy of scale' effect as the costs of shutting down warehousese eventually adds up. We can 'hand wave away' the current slowdown, but eventually it will drive up unit costs. It is incredibly tough to cut unit costs with declining volume.
You might think I'm too fixated on the '20% market share' number. That's ok. Pick your own number. At some point there will be a 'push rush' to ebooks.
In my opinion, 80% of today's ebook growth is 'pull growth.' Pull growth is when customers switch technologies due to the advantage/convenience of the technology. 'Push growth' is when a new 'inconvenience' forces them too. Note: I include deteriorating vision in 'push growth'. Its not just book store closings.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Indie bookstores 10% pbook market share
B&N at 16% print book market share.
Borders is down to 5%
Wait, where did the 10% market share go that I've read before?!? Has Borders been collapsing that quickly or is there that much rounding in print book market share? No one expected them to hold prior market share, but that is pretty small market share...
What about Amazon? While the market share
estimated 20% to 25% of pbooks.
Now, I've read that at the end of 2009 Amazon was 15% of the book market, so this is tremendous market share growth.
Now we have 17%+5%+20% (to 25%)+ 10%= 52%. This ties in with what I've heard about big box retailers holding one third to one half book market share.
Borders 13% market share in 2006, Amazon 10% back then. B&N at 17%
Amusing link promising 70% print market share through 2020. By 2013 that prediction will be proven false.
Why does this matter on an ebook blog? Mostly the impending Borders bankruptcy. If the rumors are true of 150 out of 650 Borders stores closing than we would expect customers to distribute as per existing book market share. But how likely are these customers to go to ebook? Some will have little choice as the nearest book store is too inconvenient and if one is to go internet books, why not go all the way? Some will transfer to another print source.
So in the attempt to constantly refine my prediction, I expect Borders closing 150 stores to push about 10% of their customers to ebooks. That is 0.5% market share growth for ebooks. Before you yawn at ebooks growing another ~5%, realize this is additional 'push' market share growth above and beyond other trend lines.
I also consider Borders the #1 US retail source of 'variety' in print books. IMHO, the most valuable ebook customer is the 'variety' book buyer. Those customers tend to buy books in quantity (30+) and are willing to try new authors. My calculations estimate those buyers at 35% of the total book market. (Top 10% are 70% of the book market and I estimate half of those customers are the 'variety' customers.)
There will be a 'tipping point' at some time that "pushes" a rush of customers to ebooks. Let me be clear, we are not near the tipping point. That has traditionally happened at 20% market share for a technology. The shift from 20% to 60% market share has historically been the 'run away' growth for any technology (Examples: DVD, mp3, ps2 or Wii, etc.)
The current print distribution system is not set up to handle a 20% cut in volume. There will be a reverse 'economy of scale' effect as the costs of shutting down warehousese eventually adds up. We can 'hand wave away' the current slowdown, but eventually it will drive up unit costs. It is incredibly tough to cut unit costs with declining volume.
You might think I'm too fixated on the '20% market share' number. That's ok. Pick your own number. At some point there will be a 'push rush' to ebooks.
In my opinion, 80% of today's ebook growth is 'pull growth.' Pull growth is when customers switch technologies due to the advantage/convenience of the technology. 'Push growth' is when a new 'inconvenience' forces them too. Note: I include deteriorating vision in 'push growth'. Its not just book store closings.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Monday, January 17, 2011
More optimistic view on e-books than mine
Mark Coker (Smashwords founder) is predicting ebooks break 20% of dollar market share by year end 2011.
"1.Ebook sales rise, unit consumption surprises – Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet the bigger surprise is that ebooks will account for one third or more of unit consumption. Why? Ebooks cost less and early ebook adopters read more."
Anyone who reads JA's blog will agree with:
"4. Self Publishing goes from option of last resort to option of first resort among unpublished authors – Most unpublished authors today still aspire to achieve the perceived credibility and blessing that comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of traditional publishing is fading fast."
There is more. The main point is that 20% of trade dollars... I disagree. I see the US market on a trend to achieve that in 2012. Total books later...
I should be clear, my predictions are for the US market and I predict in dollar, not volume, revenue.
The link is worth reading further.
A 2nd link:
On the transition to ebooks.
Some tidbits worth noting:
" Ebook prices are significantly lower than those of printed books, even though the actual cost difference for the publisher is on the order of $1 to $3.50. "
" Revenue still favors dead trees." Note: I happen to agree. So what? The 'trend is your friend.'
Basically the 2nd link goes on to note that publishing houses will invest more in big name blockbusters and less on other titles.
I've noted before that midlist is what will drive people to ereaders. It used to be that Borders and B&N stocked midlist to attract 'browsers' in to buy the best sellers in their stores (instead of Costco, Walmart, Walgreens, Safeway, etc.). In my opinion, there is no bookstore market without midlist. Time for B&N to set up POD coffee shops... seriously, change the model folks! The old one isn't much of a life raft.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
"1.Ebook sales rise, unit consumption surprises – Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US, yet the bigger surprise is that ebooks will account for one third or more of unit consumption. Why? Ebooks cost less and early ebook adopters read more."
Anyone who reads JA's blog will agree with:
"4. Self Publishing goes from option of last resort to option of first resort among unpublished authors – Most unpublished authors today still aspire to achieve the perceived credibility and blessing that comes with a professional book deal. Yet the cachet of traditional publishing is fading fast."
There is more. The main point is that 20% of trade dollars... I disagree. I see the US market on a trend to achieve that in 2012. Total books later...
I should be clear, my predictions are for the US market and I predict in dollar, not volume, revenue.
The link is worth reading further.
A 2nd link:
On the transition to ebooks.
Some tidbits worth noting:
" Ebook prices are significantly lower than those of printed books, even though the actual cost difference for the publisher is on the order of $1 to $3.50. "
" Revenue still favors dead trees." Note: I happen to agree. So what? The 'trend is your friend.'
Basically the 2nd link goes on to note that publishing houses will invest more in big name blockbusters and less on other titles.
I've noted before that midlist is what will drive people to ereaders. It used to be that Borders and B&N stocked midlist to attract 'browsers' in to buy the best sellers in their stores (instead of Costco, Walmart, Walgreens, Safeway, etc.). In my opinion, there is no bookstore market without midlist. Time for B&N to set up POD coffee shops... seriously, change the model folks! The old one isn't much of a life raft.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Friday, January 14, 2011
Ereader sales in 2010, continued
2011 is going to be a gaining momentum year for ebooks. I'll use a bit of data to explain why the big change will be in 2012.
I previously added up 14 to 15 million total ereader sales in 2010. My estimate was *only* 8 million Kindle sales.
Kindle Nation Daily Has it at 11 million *total* kindles by end 2010... or 8 million in 2010.
That link predicts a doubling of Kindles in 2010. (They note, a conservative prediction.) I think it will be more than a doubling of ereaders... With many additional tablet, Ipod touch, cellphone, and 'other device' readers added. The question is how much will the ebook market grow?
I suspect it will slightly over double! Partially due to the issues with Borders. I have at least a half dozen coworkers who bought either a Kindle or Nook due to the concerns about Borders. I would have thought they would drive the extra few miles to a B&N... apparently the news has 'pushed them' to buy an ereader.
So the question is, when does the 'economy of scale' shift from print to ebooks? I'm stated before at 20% of the market, the adoption rate will accelerate.
A little math (bear with with)
~ 4 million ereaders was 3% of the market in 2009.
~ 20 million ereaders is about 10% of the market at end 2010.
So before, one needed 1.3 million ereaders for each percent of the book market.
Now, we need about 2 million additional ereaders to add a percent of market share. This actually makes sense; on average, new ereader buyers purchase and read fewer books per year.
There will be anywhere from 15 to 40 million ereaders sold in 2011. (I know... not exactly a precise prediction.) I estimate it will take 3 million ereaders for each percent of additional market share. I'm also going to assume that 20% of ereading is on 'other devices' is a constant, so I'll ignore their sales.
That implies at the end of 2011, ebooks will be from 15% to 23% of the market. There is a reason I keep predicting the 'tipping point' in 2012. It is unlikely we'll break 20% in 2011. I'd love to see 40 million ereaders sold next year. I'm not going to hold my breath. But there is one chance: a marisol or color e-ink tablet & cell phone hit the market.
I hope to be proven conservative in predicting ebook growth again. (I know assuming that other devices doesn't grow beyond 20% is keeping a large number of ebook sales out of the prediction.) This keeps us on track for ebooks to be 1/2 the market in January 2013. :) For once the 'tipping point' is hit, the market shift will be fast.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
I haven't gone into how bookstore 'consolidation' will drive customers to ebooks. I'm not really interested in 'dancing on a grave,' but it is a trend that is going to happen. I suspect 300 to 500 bookstores will close in 2011 (net, in the USA). :( The customers will go somewhere...
PPS
Note at the end of the 2nd link that for 18 of 50 of the best sellers, the ebook outsells the pbook. What happens to the 'economy of scale' of print books when that is 40+ out of 50?
Late edit 1/17/2011
Another link to 8 million Kindle sales 2010.
"Unnamed sources “aware of the company’s sales projects” apparently provided that 8-million-unit figure.
If that number proves accurate, it would greatly outpace recent predictions from research firm Gartner, which pegged worldwide e-reader sales at 6.6 million units in 2010, a 79.8 percent increase from 2009. The firm also suggested that e-reader sales will rise another 68.3 percent in 2011, to more than 11 million units.
“The connected e-reader market has grown dramatically during the past two years, driven by sales of Amazon’s e-readers, primarily in North America,” "
My new comments:
That implies we could see 13 to 15 million Kindles in 2011. :) I'm happy to see Nook, Sony, and others gaining traction.
I did not expect Sony to come in at a quarter of Amazon's ereader sales. Kudos to them. The only question that remains is the true number of 2010 Nook sales. I'm suspecting I might have been optimistic... but based off B&N sales by Indie authors, was I? Perhaps I'm just being to anal about precision. ;)
Either way, we're looking at 15 to 25 ereader sales in 2011. We'd see more if an e-ink or Marisol screen with 30hz video made its way to the market. But all this 're-analysis' does is reinforce the true tipping point is later: 2012.
I previously added up 14 to 15 million total ereader sales in 2010. My estimate was *only* 8 million Kindle sales.
Kindle Nation Daily Has it at 11 million *total* kindles by end 2010... or 8 million in 2010.
That link predicts a doubling of Kindles in 2010. (They note, a conservative prediction.) I think it will be more than a doubling of ereaders... With many additional tablet, Ipod touch, cellphone, and 'other device' readers added. The question is how much will the ebook market grow?
I suspect it will slightly over double! Partially due to the issues with Borders. I have at least a half dozen coworkers who bought either a Kindle or Nook due to the concerns about Borders. I would have thought they would drive the extra few miles to a B&N... apparently the news has 'pushed them' to buy an ereader.
So the question is, when does the 'economy of scale' shift from print to ebooks? I'm stated before at 20% of the market, the adoption rate will accelerate.
A little math (bear with with)
~ 4 million ereaders was 3% of the market in 2009.
~ 20 million ereaders is about 10% of the market at end 2010.
So before, one needed 1.3 million ereaders for each percent of the book market.
Now, we need about 2 million additional ereaders to add a percent of market share. This actually makes sense; on average, new ereader buyers purchase and read fewer books per year.
There will be anywhere from 15 to 40 million ereaders sold in 2011. (I know... not exactly a precise prediction.) I estimate it will take 3 million ereaders for each percent of additional market share. I'm also going to assume that 20% of ereading is on 'other devices' is a constant, so I'll ignore their sales.
That implies at the end of 2011, ebooks will be from 15% to 23% of the market. There is a reason I keep predicting the 'tipping point' in 2012. It is unlikely we'll break 20% in 2011. I'd love to see 40 million ereaders sold next year. I'm not going to hold my breath. But there is one chance: a marisol or color e-ink tablet & cell phone hit the market.
I hope to be proven conservative in predicting ebook growth again. (I know assuming that other devices doesn't grow beyond 20% is keeping a large number of ebook sales out of the prediction.) This keeps us on track for ebooks to be 1/2 the market in January 2013. :) For once the 'tipping point' is hit, the market shift will be fast.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Ps
I haven't gone into how bookstore 'consolidation' will drive customers to ebooks. I'm not really interested in 'dancing on a grave,' but it is a trend that is going to happen. I suspect 300 to 500 bookstores will close in 2011 (net, in the USA). :( The customers will go somewhere...
PPS
Note at the end of the 2nd link that for 18 of 50 of the best sellers, the ebook outsells the pbook. What happens to the 'economy of scale' of print books when that is 40+ out of 50?
Late edit 1/17/2011
Another link to 8 million Kindle sales 2010.
"Unnamed sources “aware of the company’s sales projects” apparently provided that 8-million-unit figure.
If that number proves accurate, it would greatly outpace recent predictions from research firm Gartner, which pegged worldwide e-reader sales at 6.6 million units in 2010, a 79.8 percent increase from 2009. The firm also suggested that e-reader sales will rise another 68.3 percent in 2011, to more than 11 million units.
“The connected e-reader market has grown dramatically during the past two years, driven by sales of Amazon’s e-readers, primarily in North America,” "
My new comments:
That implies we could see 13 to 15 million Kindles in 2011. :) I'm happy to see Nook, Sony, and others gaining traction.
I did not expect Sony to come in at a quarter of Amazon's ereader sales. Kudos to them. The only question that remains is the true number of 2010 Nook sales. I'm suspecting I might have been optimistic... but based off B&N sales by Indie authors, was I? Perhaps I'm just being to anal about precision. ;)
Either way, we're looking at 15 to 25 ereader sales in 2011. We'd see more if an e-ink or Marisol screen with 30hz video made its way to the market. But all this 're-analysis' does is reinforce the true tipping point is later: 2012.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Pareto Principle and Ebooks
Quick summary:
20% of the customers buy 80% of the books. Those customers demand the greatest variety. If 'long tail theory' holds out, what the publishers put out could only meet half their demand (at best). So the most 'intense readers' must transition to ebooks for the variety.
This is to do a proper reply to a topic that comes up again and again on JA Konrath's blog.
Those that support the big6 ask, why do we need more variety?
The 80/20 rule is the Pareto principle . 80% of the market is met by 20% of the participants. In effect, the publishers supplied the 20% that was enough to meet 80% of the market demand. But wait... they had an imperfect filter, so they were supplying something less than the 20% of the content that would meet 80% of the market demand.
But then we get into Long Tail Theory. As the cost of distribution/content creation drops. The top 20% of the supply only controls 50% of the purchases. That is the theory that is driving Indie ebooks. For 50% of the market is 'up for grabs.'
Wait! 20% of customers are 80% of the sales too. The most likely customer to demand the variety will be the top 20% of customers. Ugh oh... (for the 14 AAP publishers). 80% of the market could go to ebooks as there will be no choice for over half of their content purchases! To
Will the theory be proven? We've seen this before. Crown Books crushed Indie bookstores by offering more variety. Borders and B&N then crushed crown books by offering more variety. How do you beat ebooks for variety?
Neil
20% of the customers buy 80% of the books. Those customers demand the greatest variety. If 'long tail theory' holds out, what the publishers put out could only meet half their demand (at best). So the most 'intense readers' must transition to ebooks for the variety.
This is to do a proper reply to a topic that comes up again and again on JA Konrath's blog.
Those that support the big6 ask, why do we need more variety?
The 80/20 rule is the Pareto principle . 80% of the market is met by 20% of the participants. In effect, the publishers supplied the 20% that was enough to meet 80% of the market demand. But wait... they had an imperfect filter, so they were supplying something less than the 20% of the content that would meet 80% of the market demand.
But then we get into Long Tail Theory. As the cost of distribution/content creation drops. The top 20% of the supply only controls 50% of the purchases. That is the theory that is driving Indie ebooks. For 50% of the market is 'up for grabs.'
Wait! 20% of customers are 80% of the sales too. The most likely customer to demand the variety will be the top 20% of customers. Ugh oh... (for the 14 AAP publishers). 80% of the market could go to ebooks as there will be no choice for over half of their content purchases! To
Will the theory be proven? We've seen this before. Crown Books crushed Indie bookstores by offering more variety. Borders and B&N then crushed crown books by offering more variety. How do you beat ebooks for variety?
Neil
Start of the year thoughts on ebooks
I'm going to cover a couple of quick tidbits:
1. Indie author revenue estimate
2. Ebook market prediction
3. Alternate ereaders
Revenue Estimate
I've already blogged how I think Indie authors are 20% to 33% of ebook market share. Indie authors also charge less than the big6. Almost 1/3rd of what the big6 charge by my best quick estimate. So 1/3rd*10%*20%=0.6% of the revenue.
But that revenue is gaining quickly and soon more Indie authors will have a 'stable of books' selling in the $0.99 to $6.49 range. If you price higher, you had better have *good* and *long* novels. ;)
Ebook Market Prediction
I'm amused at how conservative this prediction is:
Founder of Smashwords is quoted as saying: " “Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US” – and account for at least a third of those books that actually get read."
I've predicted 1/3rd of the revenue for ebooks in 2012 and 50% of the revenue in January 2013. I've avoided making any definitive prediction for 2011. The diffusion of innnovation continues. I'll do more curve fitting to better bracket my predictions.
Alternate Ereaders
First, I would watch Samsung. Their first effort into ereaders isn't that exciting, but they have a history of innovating. They are also an incredibly low cost producer of electronics.
The second is the growth in tablets as ereaders. My sister and father still have Kindles, but find they read more on their Ipads. My wife has also started reading on the Ipad. The more 'intense readers' go with the Kindle App and the less intense the Ibookstore. With only one volume tablet on the market from a 'high cost' vendor, it isn't that exciting a market yet. I'm seeing the large numbers of Android tablets coming out this year, including Vizio (TV maker). So I expect tablets to be the majority of new readers in 2011. That isn't to say Kindles/Nooks will not sell well... They'll certainly sell to people who read 20+ books per year. But I think that most people will buy a tablet and then discover they can read on them. Same line of thought goes with smartphones.
Nothing wrong with gateway devices.
A survey on book reading that completely ignores "how many books do you read:"
IPad Doubles E-book Market Share
Happy New Year. I'll blog less as my work schedule is going to be *crazy* for a few weeks.
Neil
1. Indie author revenue estimate
2. Ebook market prediction
3. Alternate ereaders
Revenue Estimate
I've already blogged how I think Indie authors are 20% to 33% of ebook market share. Indie authors also charge less than the big6. Almost 1/3rd of what the big6 charge by my best quick estimate. So 1/3rd*10%*20%=0.6% of the revenue.
But that revenue is gaining quickly and soon more Indie authors will have a 'stable of books' selling in the $0.99 to $6.49 range. If you price higher, you had better have *good* and *long* novels. ;)
Ebook Market Prediction
I'm amused at how conservative this prediction is:
Founder of Smashwords is quoted as saying: " “Ebooks sales will approach 20% of trade book revenues on a monthly basis by the end of 2011 in the US” – and account for at least a third of those books that actually get read."
I've predicted 1/3rd of the revenue for ebooks in 2012 and 50% of the revenue in January 2013. I've avoided making any definitive prediction for 2011. The diffusion of innnovation continues. I'll do more curve fitting to better bracket my predictions.
Alternate Ereaders
First, I would watch Samsung. Their first effort into ereaders isn't that exciting, but they have a history of innovating. They are also an incredibly low cost producer of electronics.
The second is the growth in tablets as ereaders. My sister and father still have Kindles, but find they read more on their Ipads. My wife has also started reading on the Ipad. The more 'intense readers' go with the Kindle App and the less intense the Ibookstore. With only one volume tablet on the market from a 'high cost' vendor, it isn't that exciting a market yet. I'm seeing the large numbers of Android tablets coming out this year, including Vizio (TV maker). So I expect tablets to be the majority of new readers in 2011. That isn't to say Kindles/Nooks will not sell well... They'll certainly sell to people who read 20+ books per year. But I think that most people will buy a tablet and then discover they can read on them. Same line of thought goes with smartphones.
Nothing wrong with gateway devices.
A survey on book reading that completely ignores "how many books do you read:"
IPad Doubles E-book Market Share
Happy New Year. I'll blog less as my work schedule is going to be *crazy* for a few weeks.
Neil
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Sci-Fi and Romance Gain market Share with ebooks
How did I miss this in September?
" e-book market share of the science fiction and fantasy sector globally for the 10 weeks since June was 10%, more than treble the genre’s market share of print book sales. The share taken by romance and saga books was 14%, seven times its print market share."
Finally some numbers on the jump to ebooks by Romance and Sci-fi readers.
Note those September numbers. Only 2% of print is Romance!?!
Only 3% of print Sci-fi? This definitely implies the readers of certain genres are embracing ebooks faster than others. (Otherwise book and digital market shares would be the same.)
I found this link googling "Romance ebook market share"
So about a quarter of ebooks are the two genres I've commented on...
I think after the spectacular sales of e-readers this holiday season we can expect increased sales of all ebooks.
Congrats to Amanda Hocking . One astute commenter over on Konrath's blog noted the numbers were up to 12/30/2010. Over 99,000 sales! (Including 12/31, probably over 100k.)
Amazon related: 993 (is this print?)
Kindle UK: 378
B&N (to 12/30/2010): 23,694
Smashwords: 7,895
Kindle (US): 66,040
Amazon (print?, UK, US) at 68% market share.
I see ereaders increasing reading. Just as when Borders and B&N storming into the market increased reading.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps 1/2/2011
Wait a second...
Sci-fi is 10% market share, but 13 of the top 20 are Indie... Best selling are Big6 so lets discount Indie market share by 50% or 10%*13/20*50%=3.25% of the *total* book market is just due to Indie sci-fi authors.
For Romance, 19 of the top 20 were Indie! Top selling season of the year and only Nora Roberts was holding 'old school ground.' I see ZERO reason to discount in Romance, but I'll grant the big6 another slot as I might have picked a fluke day:
14%*90%=12.6% market share.
Just looking at two genres, Indie authors have 15.8% of ebook market share!
What about other genres?
Mysteries and thrillers was Stieg Larson, John Grisham, James Paterson, Dean Koontz, etc. with 5 low ranked (of the top 20) Indie authors. So low Indie market share here...
History had few well selling Indie authors...
Gay and Lesbian seems to be 100% Indie (what is the market share, out of curiosity?)
Final conclusion: Indie authors are somewhere between 20% and 33% of ebooks! Most likely on the low end of that estimate, but without numbers it is difficult to bracket further.
Now wonder Macmillan and other big 6 publishers tried to slow ebooks early this year. Their overpricing backfired! Thankfully!
PSS on 1/2/2011
Thoughts for the day:
1. Is Ebook Indie/Small pub Sci-Fi, in terms of books SOLD (excluding free ebooks/used pbooks) outselling the AAP 14 publishers in Sci-Fi? By outselling the AAP 14 publishers, I'm including pbook retail as well as ebooks! They are of the same order of magnitude, but the numbers are too 'fuzzy' to say more than that.
2. It is obvious that Indie+small publisher Romance ebooks outsell, in units and *dollars*, the 14 AAP publishers that report ebook sales. By this I mean pbooks as well as ebooks volumes and bucks! 1st link of this posts notes the 'cannibalism' of print sales.
I cannot believe I missed that informative link... (I Google daily to find out more on ebooks.)
" e-book market share of the science fiction and fantasy sector globally for the 10 weeks since June was 10%, more than treble the genre’s market share of print book sales. The share taken by romance and saga books was 14%, seven times its print market share."
Finally some numbers on the jump to ebooks by Romance and Sci-fi readers.
Note those September numbers. Only 2% of print is Romance!?!
Only 3% of print Sci-fi? This definitely implies the readers of certain genres are embracing ebooks faster than others. (Otherwise book and digital market shares would be the same.)
I found this link googling "Romance ebook market share"
So about a quarter of ebooks are the two genres I've commented on...
I think after the spectacular sales of e-readers this holiday season we can expect increased sales of all ebooks.
Congrats to Amanda Hocking . One astute commenter over on Konrath's blog noted the numbers were up to 12/30/2010. Over 99,000 sales! (Including 12/31, probably over 100k.)
Amazon related: 993 (is this print?)
Kindle UK: 378
B&N (to 12/30/2010): 23,694
Smashwords: 7,895
Kindle (US): 66,040
Amazon (print?, UK, US) at 68% market share.
I see ereaders increasing reading. Just as when Borders and B&N storming into the market increased reading.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
ps 1/2/2011
Wait a second...
Sci-fi is 10% market share, but 13 of the top 20 are Indie... Best selling are Big6 so lets discount Indie market share by 50% or 10%*13/20*50%=3.25% of the *total* book market is just due to Indie sci-fi authors.
For Romance, 19 of the top 20 were Indie! Top selling season of the year and only Nora Roberts was holding 'old school ground.' I see ZERO reason to discount in Romance, but I'll grant the big6 another slot as I might have picked a fluke day:
14%*90%=12.6% market share.
Just looking at two genres, Indie authors have 15.8% of ebook market share!
What about other genres?
Mysteries and thrillers was Stieg Larson, John Grisham, James Paterson, Dean Koontz, etc. with 5 low ranked (of the top 20) Indie authors. So low Indie market share here...
History had few well selling Indie authors...
Gay and Lesbian seems to be 100% Indie (what is the market share, out of curiosity?)
Final conclusion: Indie authors are somewhere between 20% and 33% of ebooks! Most likely on the low end of that estimate, but without numbers it is difficult to bracket further.
Now wonder Macmillan and other big 6 publishers tried to slow ebooks early this year. Their overpricing backfired! Thankfully!
PSS on 1/2/2011
Thoughts for the day:
1. Is Ebook Indie/Small pub Sci-Fi, in terms of books SOLD (excluding free ebooks/used pbooks) outselling the AAP 14 publishers in Sci-Fi? By outselling the AAP 14 publishers, I'm including pbook retail as well as ebooks! They are of the same order of magnitude, but the numbers are too 'fuzzy' to say more than that.
2. It is obvious that Indie+small publisher Romance ebooks outsell, in units and *dollars*, the 14 AAP publishers that report ebook sales. By this I mean pbooks as well as ebooks volumes and bucks! 1st link of this posts notes the 'cannibalism' of print sales.
I cannot believe I missed that informative link... (I Google daily to find out more on ebooks.)
Testing predictions
I always like to test and re-test my predictions.
Rogers in the early 1950's on technology diffusion published an adoption curve for technology. Now, that curve is an average, but let's test my '50% of the market by January 2013' prediction versus a respected curve.
Since the X-axis (timeline) varies for every technology, I took two points from e-books, roughly where we are now and how long it took to achieve 2.5% market share. There are different measures and noise in the data, but it looks like end of April 2009 is my best estimate. (There is way too much noise in the data and AAP revises old data... so an exact time is tough without the raw data.)
That curve shows about 35% market for e-books in January 2013. :( 50% would be January 2014 per the Rogers curve. :(
Now I've already made my prediction public in numerous blog comments, so I'm stuck with the prediction. Technology adoption isn't a smooth curve... But perhaps I was a little optimistic. So we might see one third of the dollars in e-books at the start of 2013... But I still have a hunch it will be half.
Either way, I see tremendous market growth and huge opportunities for Indie authors.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
Rogers in the early 1950's on technology diffusion published an adoption curve for technology. Now, that curve is an average, but let's test my '50% of the market by January 2013' prediction versus a respected curve.
Since the X-axis (timeline) varies for every technology, I took two points from e-books, roughly where we are now and how long it took to achieve 2.5% market share. There are different measures and noise in the data, but it looks like end of April 2009 is my best estimate. (There is way too much noise in the data and AAP revises old data... so an exact time is tough without the raw data.)
That curve shows about 35% market for e-books in January 2013. :( 50% would be January 2014 per the Rogers curve. :(
Now I've already made my prediction public in numerous blog comments, so I'm stuck with the prediction. Technology adoption isn't a smooth curve... But perhaps I was a little optimistic. So we might see one third of the dollars in e-books at the start of 2013... But I still have a hunch it will be half.
Either way, I see tremendous market growth and huge opportunities for Indie authors.
Got Popcorn?
Neil
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